NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 3, 10:16 AM PST, 4 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 3, 10:16 AM PST, 4 hours 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1016 AM PST Mon Feb 3 2025
.Updated AVIATION Discussion...
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.AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs...A front will remain nearly stationary
over northern California into southern portions of Jackson, Klamath,
and Lake counties today. This will produce steady precipitation,
mountain obscuration, and a mix of LIFR/IFR, and MVFR conditions
with snow levels from around 1500 feet on the north side of the
front to 7000 feet on the south side. Locations affected by the
steady precipitation include Medford, Klamath Falls, Lakeview,
Montague, Mt. Shasta, and Alturas.
The heaviest precipitation, but also the warmest air mass will
remain over northern California. Thus, precipitation will mainly
remain as rain for airports in Siskiyou and Modoc counties,
including Montague, Mount Shasta City, and Alturas. Northward into
Jackson/Josephine County, precipitation rates will be high enough
such that precipitation will be snow for most areas. Accumulations
on runways are likely today, especially under the heavier
precipitation rates, including KMFR. Eventually, this stationary
front will shift eastward this evening and precipitation will taper
off west of the Cascades while persisting, but still easing, through
the overnight hours east of the Cascades.
North of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, the main front will remain south
of this area, but there will be some LIFR conditions for the Umpqua
Basin. Along the coast, a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions will prevail.
/BR-y
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.MARINE...Updated 830 AM Monday, February 3, 2025...Steep seas
will continue into this afternoon with a peak around 10 to 11 ft at
12 seconds.
Conditions gradually improve tonight into Tuesday evening. Low
pressure will move over the northern waters Wednesday morning and
could bring a brief period of moderate to strong winds and steep
seas that could get close to Small Craft. Another low will move into
the waters Wednesday night resulting in another brief period of
Small Craft conditions.
An active pattern with persistent weak low pressure over the region
is expected to bring improving conditions later Thursday into
Saturday. -Petrucelli
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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 921 AM PST Mon Feb 3 2025/
DISCUSSION...Big, wet flakes have been falling in the Rogue
Valley this morning! The snow has been melting on most areas
roads, but slightly above 2,000 feet Jacksonville Hill is
partially covered. Grassy surfaces will continue to see
accumulation, and heavier precipitation will start to bring
accumulation to valley floor roads. This will continue through the
morning and into at least the start of the afternoon.
Temperatures will remain in the 30s today, so looking to have snow
continue near Medford and south. Snow will continue falling
through the day east of the Cascades.
-Hermansen
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 603 AM PST Mon Feb 3 2025/
DISCUSSION...A stationary front remains over northern California
and southern Oregon, between a low pressure system moving south over
the Pacific Ocean and continuing high pressure over the southern
United States. The low's current position is supporting westerly
flow aloft. With an atmosphere river continuing to provide moisture
to this pattern, rain and snow showers will continue over the area.
For this morning, the majority of the activity is over Siskiyou and
Modoc counties as well as into southern Klamath and Lake counties.
Snowfall continues at Siskiyou Summit, Kalamth Falls, and Bly. North
of these areas, conditions are calmer to start the day.
The low pressure system is expected to move closer to the area
today, which will turn the upper flow from westerly to
southwesterly. Activity looks to decrease over most of Modoc County
and increase over Jackson County as well as northern Lake and
Klamath counties. Snow levels west of the Cascades look to be
between 1000 and 2000 feet through the day today, with showers
locally lowering these elevations. This will allow for snowfall over
elevated terrain in Coos, Josephine, and Jackson counties. In
general, there's a 10 percent or less chance of snowfall reaching
valley floors today. Snowfall over area passes is possible today. 2
to 3 inches of snowfall is forecast over Siskiyou Summit, and 1 to 2
inches will be possible for passes between Merlin and Canyonville.
Winter Storm Warnings continue across western Siskiyou County, the
Mount Shasta region, elevated terrain in Jackson County, and broad
areas in Klamath and Lake counties. Winter Weather Advisories are in
place over northern Shasta Valley and terrain around Illinois
Valley. Please see WSWMFR for additional details.
A sharp temperature gradient with the warmer air to the south is
keeping snow levels of 4000 to 5000 feet east of the Cascades as
over southern Siskiyou County. While snowfall is still expected over
higher terrain in these areas, moderate to heavy rainfall is
expected over lower elevations in Modoc and southern Siskiyou
counties, where the air will be the warmest. Areas east of McCloud
in Siskiyou County and across most of Modoc County have already seen
1.5 to 3 inches of precipitation, with another 1 to 4 inches
possible through today and Tuesday. An Areal Flood Warning is in
place for these areas through at least Tuesday evening. A River
Flood Warning is in place for the Pit River through Friday
afternoon, as the river could reach Moderate flood stage by Tuesday
evening.
With showers continuing through the week and snow levels dropping to
1000 feet across most of the area, snow showers look to continue.
Accumulations are expected to be widespread but lighter on Tuesday
and Wednesday, while Thursday may see more snowfall as the upper
trough moves eastward over the area. Additional guidance will help
to determine if any additional hazards are needed into the week.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal levels through the forecast
period. A Freeze Warning is in place for the Oregon coast and into
Coos County for tonight into Tuesday morning, and additional
warnings may be needed for these areas by midweek. Other inland
areas could see near or below freezing temperatures through the
forecast period and beyond, with near 0 degree temperatures possible
east of the Cascades this weekend. Moisture lingering on pavement
and asphalt could freeze overnight and create slippery conditions on
sidewalks and roads.
Overall, active weather and cold temperatures could create a variety
of conditions that make travel hazardous. Using TripCheck can help
to ensure awareness of road conditions, and please stay tuned to our
forecasts for future updates. -TAD
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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ026>031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ024.
Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Tuesday for
ORZ021-022.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ080-
082>085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this
afternoon for PZZ350-370-376.
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