Wildfire in California, August 1 to 24, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
105 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...01/948 AM.

Fairly steady conditions will continue through early next week
with temperatures a little below normal and night to morning low
clouds and fog across the coasts and some valleys. Afternoon
temperatures will mostly be in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the
coasts and mid 80s to mid 90s in the valleys. Seasonally gusty
southwest to northwest winds will also continue each day over the
interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County. A significant
warming trend is expected by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...01/1012 AM.

Over all pretty quiet weather pattern through early next week as a
trough across the Pac NW keeps the upper high over the southwest
deserts and also maintains a moderate onshore flow with marine
layer around 1500-2000 feet deep. Forecast gradients are trending
ever so slightly offshore the next few days which explains why the
NBM is indicating a 1 or 2 degree increase in high temperatures
the next couple days, mainly inland. By Sunday and Monday highs
around 100 are possible in the warmest coastal valleys and
Antelope Valley and mid to upper 80s Downtown. Coastal areas,
including the Central Coast, are expected to stay mostly in the
70s.

Models continue to show a reversal to northerly flow across the
western Transverse range, particularly Saturday and Sunday that
will result in some gusty Sundowner winds there during the
evenings that could require low end wind advisories there. And
typical southwest winds will continue each afternoon and evening
across the AV.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...01/1033 AM.

Tuesday is expected to be very similar to Monday, however a
significant warming trend is expected to begin Wednesday as the
trough across the Pac NW weakens and shifts north allowing high
pressure to move west into California. Most areas should warm up
at least 2-3 degrees per day through Thursday resulting in highs
at least 5-10 degrees above normal area-wide. This will certainly
be increasing the heat risk factors across the area as highs
likely exceed 105 in the the warmer coastal valleys with a 10-20
percent chance of reaching 110. Highs in Downtown LA are expected
to reach the low to mid 90s with the hottest day likely on
Thursday. Across the AV highs will be approaching 110. Records
this time of year are quite high but could be met or exceeded if
the higher end forecasts are realized. Will start to evaluate the
need to for any heat hazards early next week, but preparing now
for very hot weather next week is strongly encouraged.

There are still no strong signals for a return of monsoon
conditions through next week, however a vast majority of the
ensembles continue to show moisture returning the following week,
beginning around Aug 11.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1634Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4200 feet with a temperature of 23 Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KWJF and KPMD.

For other sites, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs. Timing of flight
category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There
is a 40% chance of LIFR conditions at KPRB 11Z-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
IFR/LIFR conditions 10Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/104 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, high confidence in Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds with a 30-40% chance of Gale force
winds Saturday and Sunday. For Wednesday, high confidence in winds
and seas dropping below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday, high
confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening
hours. For Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a 20-30% chance of
SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds late
this afternoon/evening then a 60% chance of SCA level winds
Saturday through Monday during the late afternoon/evening hours.
Elsewhere across the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Gil, currently south of Cabo San Lucas, will
generate a 12 second south swell of 2 to 4 feet Saturday night
into Monday.

While all Tsunami Advisory statements were canceled on Wednesday,
we will continue to see tidal fluctuations that will slowly
decrease over the next few days. As a result, expect abnormally
strong currents nearshore including inside harbors.

Visibilities will likely lower through the weekend, with dense fog
likely along the Central Coast by Saturday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK/CS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox