Damaging Wind in Arizona, May 17, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
725 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread gusty winds are expected across the region
today as a weather system moves in. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Basin as
well. Temperatures will cool slightly today through Monday with
northwesterly breezes hanging on through Monday afternoon. A
warming trend will commence Tuesday onward with temperatures
climbing well above normal.
&&

.UPDATE...Peak wind gusts today have generally been in the 30 to 50
mph range. A few locations have reported gusts of 60 mph or greater,
including a few sensors in central Nye County and Barstow-Daggett
airport in San Bernardino County. Winds have generally been from the
west to southwest across most of the Mojave Desert, but a push of
northwesterly winds has been moving through Nye/Esmeralda counties
this afternoon and evening and began to enter Clark county around 7
PM PDT. These winds are accompanied by a line of thunderstorms
producing between .1 and .25 inch of rainfall. Based on the latest
HRRR run, northwesterly outflow winds should reach the Las Vegas
Valley between 8 and 9 PM with gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible if it
holds together. The Wind Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM this
evening for most areas, but until 5 AM Sunday for the western Mojave
Desert including the Barstow area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday.

An upper level trough will continue to dig into Southwest Utah
tonight and Sunday. With the strongest forcing and pressure gradient
ahead of the trough axis, the south to southwest winds and wind
impacts are expected to diminish tonight. Northwest flow will take
over as the downstream side of  the trough moves overhead. These
northwest winds could bring isolated wind impacts to Esmeralda, Nye,
and northern Inyo County, but the highest winds and probabilities for
gust over 40 MPH are expected to remain isolated and confined to the
higher terrain tonight. On Sunday, the overall pressure gradient
weakens and impactful winds are not expected with widespread north
to northwest gusts to 20-30 MPH likely. Drier air will filter into
the region behind the trough and precipitation will end tonight.
Sunday will be dry under mostly sunny skies.

On Monday, a reinforcing shortwave will ride through the mean
northwest flow. This piece of energy become less robust with each
model run and now only skirts portions of southern Nevada and
northwest Arizona, and thus the wind forecast continues to trend
lower on Monday. The best chance for impactful winds on Monday will
be in the Colorado River Valley as northerly winds funneling down the
terrain, mainly in the morning. Probabilities for 40 MPH gusts are
highest around Laughlin, with 50%-70% probabilities elsewhere in the
Colorado River Valley Monday morning. Boaters should be aware of the
potential for impacts on the lakes on Monday. Elsewhere, winds will
not be impactful with gusts 15-25 MPH currently expected.

Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be cooler than today and run a
few degrees below normal. With north winds, it may feel a bit cooler
as well.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday

Temperatures increase through the workweek as the trough exits to
the east and heights aloft rise. The probability of reaching 100
degrees in Las Vegas on Thursday is now 75 percent. On Thursday and
Friday, expect widespread Moderate (Level 2) HeatRisk across the
desert valleys, a level of heat that affects anyone sensitive to
heat, especially those without adequate cooling or hydration. There
is also the potential for some Major (Level 3) HeatRisk along the
Colorado River, which affects anyone without effective cooling or
hydration. Zonal flow aloft should help maintain non-impactful winds
through at least Thursday, but may have to watch an approaching
shortwave towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty
southwest winds continue into  the evening with gusts 30-40 knots.
After sunset, winds begin to weaken until they shift to the
northwest. The exact timing of this wind shift remains uncertain and
will likely be tied to the strength/coverage of shower activity to
the north of the valley. Chances of precipitation at the terminal
are low at ~20%, but outflow from activity to the north should push
northwesterlies through LAS between 03z and 06z. Overnight, winds
may fluctuate between a northwest and a west-southwest direction,
though any winds from the WSW should be notably lighter. After
sunrise, the northwesterly direction will dominate. SCT-BKN clouds
at or above 10kft through the night with mostly clear skies tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty southwest winds
persist across most of the area with the exception being BIH where
winds are more westerly or northwesterly. Gusts this afternoon in
the 25-40 knot range, with the strongest winds out at DAG. After
sunset, winds will begin to weaken. In the Las Vegas Valley, a shift
to the northwest is expected between 03z and 07z, though the wind
shift may struggle to reach or persist at HND. Tomorrow, northwest
winds are expected to develop everywhere except DAG where gap flow
will keep the direction more westerly. VFR conditions prevail with
SCT-BKN clouds at or above 10kft through the night and mostly clear
skies tomorrow.
.UPDATE...Peak wind gusts today have generally been in the 30 to 50
mph range. A few locations have reported gusts of 60 mph or greater,
including a few sensors in central Nye County and Barstow-Daggett
airport in San Bernardino County. Winds have generally been from the
west to southwest across most of the Mojave Desert, but a push of
northwesterly winds has been moving through Nye/Esmeralda counties
this afternoon and evening and began to enter Clark county around 7
PM PDT. These winds are accompanied by a line of thunderstorms
producing between .1 and .25 inch of rainfall. Based on the latest
HRRR run, northwesterly outflow winds should reach the Las Vegas
Valley between 8 and 9 PM with gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible if it
holds together. The Wind Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM this
evening for most areas, but until 5 AM Sunday for the western Mojave
Desert including the Barstow area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

UPDATE...Meltzer
SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Meltzer
AVIATION...Woods

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