A strong upper-level trough brought an unsettled weather pattern, heightening the risk of excessive rainfall across the islands from May 17th to the 20th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A strong upper-level trough brought an unsettled weather pattern, heightening the risk of excessive rainfall across the islands from May 17th to the 20th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 17, 4:52 AM AST, 4 hours 28 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 452 AM AST Sat May 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * A strong upper-level trough will maintain an unsettled weather pattern, heightening the risk of excessive rainfall across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today and possibly tomorrow. * Saharan dust will continue to move across the region, resulting in hazy skies through at least next Tuesday. * Afternoon showers and thunderstorms, driven by local effects and daytime heating, are expected to develop daily next week across the interior and western Puerto Rico. * Decreasing winds will promote low rip current risk across all coastal areas of the islands throughout the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday... Radar and satellite analysis indicated mostly quiet weather across Puerto Rico overnight, with areas of fog developing over the mountainous interior. Since 8 PM AST, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affected eastern Puerto Rico—including Vieques and Culebra—as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands, resulting in increased cloud cover and peak radar-estimated rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches in Fajardo and Saint John. Winds were generally light, with measurable speeds below 10 mph mainly observed across windward coastal areas. Minimum temperatures dropped into the lower 60s in the higher elevations, while exposed coastal areas of southern and eastern Puerto Rico, along with the local islands, remained in the upper 70s. A mid-to-upper-level cutoff low and its associated surface-induced trough will remain the dominant weather feature through the weekend. This pattern will continue to support deep convective development, especially today and into early Sunday, aided by cooler-than-normal temperatures aloft and an abundance of tropical moisture. Precipitable water values today will range between 1.9 and 2.1 inches, near to above typical levels for this time of year. A gradual drying trend is anticipated beginning Sunday into early next week, as drier air filters in behind the upper-level trough. While winds will gradually diminish as the surface trough settles northeast of the region over the next few days, breezy conditions may persist today around the Anegada Passage, just east of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite the presence of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL), which may locally suppress convective activity, today is still expected to be the most active day of the short-term period. Scattered to locally numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast, with the greatest impacts likely over eastern Puerto Rico, the Cordillera Central, and northwestern Puerto Rico, including the San Juan metro area. Rains from slow-moving showers will support a limited to elevated risk of excessive rainfall. The strongest thunderstorms may also produce frequent lightning, strong wind gusts, and the potential for small hail. Given already saturated soils, urban and small stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and landslides remain possible. The overall pattern becomes less favorable for organized convection by Sunday and Monday. While isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible, mainly during the afternoon hours, activity is expected to be less frequent and less intense, with flooding threats becoming more localized. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals throughout the period, though a limited excessive heat hazard may develop across northern and western Puerto Rico on Sunday and Monday. Please refer to the Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook for the latest depiction of at- risk areas. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday... The forecast remains generally on track for the long-term period. At the surface, a high-pressure system over the Atlantic Basin will maintain an easterly to southeasterly wind flow throughout the forecast period. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak upper-level trough will move across the area, while a mid-level ridge builds over the western Caribbean. Winds will remain light through at least midweek, then gradually increase from Thursday onward. According to the latest model guidance, precipitable water values will fluctuate around seasonal averages—approximately 1.8 inches on Tuesday, decreasing to between 1.5 and 1.7 inches on Wednesday and Thursday, and rising again to around 1.8 inches by Friday afternoon onward. Given this pattern, marginally unstable conditions are expected mainly on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of moisture, daytime heating, and local effects will favor shower development, particularly during the afternoon hours. However, the likelihood of thunderstorms will decrease as 500 mb temperatures rise into an above-average range (around -4 to -5 degrees Celsius), which could limit convective development. On the other hand, by the end of the week, temperatures are forecast to return to around -7 degrees Celsius at 500 mb, increasing the potential for thunderstorm activity with afternoon convection, but less moisture and instability will be available. From Thursday through Saturday, the upper- level trough will shift to our east, placing its convergent side over the region, while the mid-level ridge shifts eastward and exerts more influence, promoting more stable atmospheric conditions. Either way, afternoon convection cannot be ruled out due to the available moisture (mainly confined in the lower levels of the atmosphere) and local effects, particularly across the western portion of Puerto Rico during peak heating hours. Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal throughout the forecast period, as suggested by 925 mb temperatures, which will peak on Tuesday and stay above average for the rest of the week. Also, model are still showing Saharan dust concentrations over the region at least through Tuesday. The main takeaway is that there will likely be rainfall activity each day, mainly during the morning in eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and during the afternoon in western Puerto Rico. Tuesday has the highest probability of afternoon rainfall in the west, with chances between 60% and 70%, followed by Wednesday with 50% to 60%. From Thursday through Saturday, more stable conditions are expected, but available moisture should still result in afternoon convection, although it is not expected to be deep or widespread. The flood risk will likely remain limited. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Unsettled conditions will bring MVFR and brief IFR periods at most TAF sites, continuing across USVI terminals through the period. SHRA/TSRA will affect Puerto Rico terminals mainly between 17/16- 22Z. Saharan dust concentrations remain minor, with visibility above 6 miles, except near +SHRA/TSRA. Light to calm winds at first, increasing to 8–12 mph with strong sea breeze variations after 17/14Z. Gusts possible near strong TSRA. && .MARINE... A surface trough will influence light to moderate easterly winds. A deep trough with its axis currently located to the west of the region will continue to support unsettled weather conditions today, with a high chance of thunderstorm development mainly across the eastern local waters. These storms could lead to locally higher winds and seas. In addition, hazy conditions are likely over the next few days due to the presence of Saharan dust. && .BEACH FORECAST... There is a low rip current risk today across all coastal areas of the islands as winds are expected to become lighter. However, life-threatening rip currents often occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Similar conditions are expected to prevail over the weekend and into early next week. A moderate rip current risk will likely return around midweek. For more information, please refer to the latest Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU). && .HYDROLOGY... Abundant tropical moisture (with heavy moisture levels) and increased instability due to a nearby cutoff low will keep the flood risk high across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today and tonight. Since soils are already saturated and some rivers are running high, any additional heavy rain could cause urban and flash flooding, river flooding, and landslides—even after the heaviest rain stops. For more details, please see the Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU). && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && SHORT TERM/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...ICP LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...YZR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service San Juan PR 441 AM AST Sat May 17 2025 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-181000- San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior- North Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest- Western Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques- The nearshore and off shore Atlantic and Caribbean Coastal Waters- 441 AM AST Sat May 17 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Puerto Rico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight .Lightning...Isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms. Stay alert and be prepared to take shelter if storms develop. .Excessive Rainfall...Flooding in urban areas, roads, small streams, and washes, particularly across eastern, central, and western to northwestern Puerto Rico, as well as portions of the San Juan metropolitan area. There is a low chance of isolated flash floods and landslides. Elsewhere, plan for water ponding on roads and in poorly drained areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday The primary concern through the period will be excessive rainfall and frequent lightning, even on drier days with less favorable convective conditions. A limited to elevated risk is expected on Sunday, tapering to limited and localized impacts as the week progresses. Above-normal temperatures will continue, with a limited heat risk most afternoons, especially across northern and western Puerto Rico. By Thursday, as trade winds strengthen, expect a return of non-thunderstorm wind hazards and moderate rip current risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is encouraged. Please relay any information about flooding, winds, waves, and rip currents to the National Weather Service in San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-181000- St. Thomas St. John adjacent Islands-St Croix- Nearshore Atlantic and adjacent Caribbean Coastal Waters- 441 AM AST Sat May 17 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of USVI. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight .Lightning...Isolated thunderstorms. Stay alert and be prepared to take shelter if storms develop. .Excessive Rainfall...Ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas. There is a low chance of localized urban and small streams flooding. .Marine Conditions...Small craft should exercise caution, particularly across the Anegada Passage. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday The primary concern through the period will be excessive rainfall and frequent lightning, particularly on Sunday. By Thursday, as trade winds strengthen, expect a return of non-thunderstorm wind hazards and moderate rip current risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is encouraged. Please relay any information about flooding, winds, waves, and rip currents to the National Weather Service in San Juan.
The San Juan radar (TJUA), 51 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:17 UTC.
19 flood, 5 flash flood, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
The 911 call center reported flooding along Calle 22 affecting Residencia C-1 in Barrio Quebrada Vuelta in Fajardo.
The 911 call center reported a stranded car due to flooding along Avenida Las Palmas near Iglesia de Dios Primitiva and Rest Chino Jo King Chinese.
Public reports on social media that PR-172 near Garaje Rafy Transmission was partially flooded.
The 911 call center reported flooding along Calle Marginal 110 in Condominio San Francisco, Bayam n. The parking lot was flooded with stranded cars.
The 911 call center reported flooding in several sections of road PR-784 in Barrio Canaboncito, Sector La Vega, near Escuela Andres Rosales.
The 911 call center reported floodwaters entering house L-2 in Urbanizaci n Villa Sauri, Calle 1, Caguas.
The 911 call center reported floodwaters entering a house at Calle San Lorenzo 36 in Catano.
A member of the public uploaded a video showing Ro Loco beginning to overflow and impacting PR-365, with water starting to cover a low-level crossing.
A 911 reporter informed us that a house at 53 Victoria Road in the urban area of Anasco is experiencing flooding. There are people reportedly trapped.
A 911 reporter reported that a house along Road 411 in Aguada was affected by flooding. The property is next to a river.
A 911 reporter informed us that Road Tetu n in the urban area of Anasco is flooded.
A member of the public reported significant flooding affecting a house and vehicles on Calle Nueva in Bo. Mayuco, Anasco.
Emergency manager reported flooding over PR-171 KM 6.1 in Bo Rincon Sector La Linea due to floodwaters from Rio La Plata.
A social media post reported a flooded road in Camino Municipal near a restaurant called El Kapotazo due to excessive runoff and a small stream in the area.
Ro Cibuco overflowed its banks and affected Road 620 in Vega Alta. The road was impassable.
Flooding is affecting the area where PR 419 intersects with PR 2 near the Hyatt Place, Manati. The road remained closed.
Emergency manager reports stranded cars due to flooding waters over PR-2 at km 83 in Arecibo.
Flooding affected the road and garage entrance of several houses in Sector La Guinea in Arecibo.
Flooding impacted multiple lanes on Ave. Juan Ponce de Le n in San Juan, directly in front of Island Finance Bank.
An emergency manager reported a lightning strike incident involving a 17-year-old female in Bo, Santa Rosa sector La 15. The individual was stable and conscious at the regional hospital in Arecibo.
An emergency manager reported that PR-2, near an auto dealer, was impassable due to poor drainage. Two vehicles were stranded and rescued by local officers.
Emergency managers reported flooding on Calle Las Canelas after Quebrada Seca, a small stream, overflowed its banks.
Emergency managers reported flooding at Angel Sandin Martinez Middle School and its adjacent roads.
Emergency managers reported flooding on PR-2 near the intersection with PR-160 and above Rio Cibuco.
Emergency managers reported flooding on Guarico Avenue, near the intersection with Hector Pantojas St., caused by a local creek overflowing its banks. The road was not reported as impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1268946, 1268947, 1268948, 1268949, 1268950, 1268951, 1268952, 1268953, 1268954, 1268955, 1268956, 1268957, 1268958, 1268959, 1268960, 1268961, 1268962, 1268963, 1268964, 1268965, 1268966, 1268967, 1268968, 1268969, 1268970.