Heavy rain upstream caused high runoff in the Paria River watershed.
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The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Heavy rain upstream caused high runoff in the Paria River watershed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 4:40 PM MST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 440 PM MST Thu Jul 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected into this evening. Low grade monsoon conditions then set in starting on Friday, lasting into early next week when shower and storm activity will be mainly isolated. Cooler temperatures are also expected into next week. && .DISCUSSION...A low pressure system, currently centered along the Baja California coast, will move northward over the coming days. The low will move across southern California and into southern Nevada from Saturday into Sunday, dissipating later on Sunday. High pressure will then gradually build back over the southwest states through next week. For today and tonight...Deep moisture will remain across Arizona in advance of the low. The result will be scattered showers and thunderstorms into evening hours with the chance of a stray light shower continuing through the night. From Friday into Monday...The low will move northward into California and Nevada. A drier air mass will accompany the approaching low with diminishing chances for showers and thunderstorms over much of northern Arizona. Moisture is likely to linger over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains area with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms continuing. For the rest of northern Arizona the decrease in moisture will result in generally only isolated activity. In addition, the wind shear in the mid-levels transitions from around 10 mph at 600 mb to near 50 mph at 400 mb over much of the area which is not conducive to storm development in what will be a weak instability regime. From Tuesday onward...The low grade monsoon conditions could continue. There will be an interaction between the subtropical high pressure system to our east and a trough just off the west coast. It may not be until late next week before the high can nudge it's way westward into a position more favorable for the transport of Gulf of California moisture northward. However, a lot can change in the subtle/weak flow associated with the monsoon. && .AVIATION...Friday 18/00Z through Saturday 19/00Z...VFR conditions, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms a possibility through 06Z. Shower and thunderstorm chances return between 18Z and 20Z, lasting through rest of the afternoon. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, SW 5-10kts gusts 20kts after 18-20Z. Winds gusty and erratic with brief MVFR conditions possible near thunderstorms. OUTLOOK...Saturday 19/00Z through Monday 21/00Z...VFR conditions, isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly between 18Z and 03Z. Winds W-SW 5-15kts, gusts 20kts. Winds gusty and erratic with brief MVFR conditions possible near thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening. Wetting rains, gusty outflow winds, and flash flooding will be possible. Daytime winds west to southwest at 5-10 mph with gusts to 10-20 mph each day. Sunday through Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast, with the best chances over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Wetting rains are likely within any stronger storms. Daytime winds west to southwest at 5-10 mph with gusts to 10-20 mph each day. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The Cedar City radar (KICX), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A USGS river gauge on the Paria River near the confluence with the Colorado River (PLFA3) measured a 3.3 foot rise.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1277542.