Drought in Arizona, February 11 to 28, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 AM MST Tue Feb 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...An unsettled weather pattern the rest of this week as a
series of weather systems impact the region. Gusty winds areawide
this afternoon, followed by much cooler temperatures Wednesday.
Expect a few showers, mainly north of Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night. Another stronger systems will through Friday into
early Saturday resulting in more widespread precipitation chances.

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.DISCUSSION...Latest IR/WV satellite imagery shows mostly clear
skies this morning across southeast Arizona, though an area of mid
and high level clouds is currently pushing into far SW Arizona and
adjacent northern Sonora and these will move through during the
morning hours before mostly sunny skies return this afternoon. As
the area remains under broad troughiness today with an increased
pressure gradient, today will be the windiest day of the forecast
period with gusty southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph (lowest west of
Tucson, highest east of Tucson) and gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Some
locales mainly south and east of Tucson will approach wind advisory
thresholds this afternoon but just not quite there to pull the
trigger to issue wind headlines for this event. However, a Red Flag
Warning is in effect for much of Cochise/Graham/Srn Greenlee
Counties. More on that in the fire weather section below. Of course
with the gusty winds, some areas of blowing dust are expected,
especially in the more susceptible areas such as near the Willcox
Playa. Temperatures today will be near seasonally normal levels for
this time of year.

Wednesday: This will be the coldest day of the period as
temperatures drop to about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Still some
breezes as well, but much less than today. Moisture levels will
increase from the top down through the day as PWATs increase to
about 150% of normal by Wednesday night. While the moisture looks
good, the limiting factor for much in the way of precipitation is
the lack of dynamics as disturbances in the embedded flow are quite
weak. We've lowered PoPs to the 10-20% range for most locales
(higher in the White Mtns) Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night. QPF with any precipitation that does occur during this time
will be quite low at 0.05" or less (slightly higher in the White
Mtns). Snow levels mainly around 5000 feet during this period.

Thursday: The region will generally be between systems so no
mentionable PoPs for most locales, except for the higher terrain of
northern Graham and northern Greenlee Counties. Temperatures near
normal with less wind.

Friday/Saturday: This will be the most active period. Ensembles are
in good agreement brining a stronger trough through the region,
focusing on the Friday afternoon through Friday night time period.
The ECMWF/EPS remains the most aggressive with the amplitude of the
trough, with the GFS/GEFS less so and the Canadian/GEPS in the
middle. While this will result in the best chance of widespread
precipitation during this forecast period, even the most aggressive
EPS ensemble means keep QPF values in the 0.05"-0.35" range for most
valleys with higher amounts in the mountains. The GEFS/GEPS average
about 0.05"-0.2" QPF in the valleys. While any precipitation is
welcome, we need a lot more to really put a dent into the deficits
we've seen over the last several months, especially considering the
normally dry Spring season is rapidly approaching. Snow levels start
around 8000-8500 feet Friday afternoon, then drop to 6000-7000 feet
by Saturday morning. Initial thoughts are snow amounts of 1 to 4
inches near the mountain tops from Tucson northeastward. Any
lingering precipitation will come to an end from west to east
Saturday morning. Otherwise, expect breezes to return on Friday with
temperatures dropping to slightly below normal levels Saturday.

Sunday/Monday: Ridging returns with dry conditions areawide and
temperatures quickly warming to above normal levels.

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.AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z.
SKC early this morning, then a round of BKN clouds AOA 18kft AGL
movg across the area from W to E aft 11/10Z thru 11/19Z, then SKC-
SCT clouds AOA 18k ft AGL through the remainder of the forecast
period. SFC winds less than 10 kts and terrain driven thru 11/15z,
then becoming SWLY and increasing to 15-25 kts aft 11/18z with gusts
30-35 kts. Highest gusts will be at KOLS/KDUG terminals. Winds
gradually diminish this evening, becoming 12 kts or less aft 12/04Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active weather pattern this week as a series
of systems move through the area. Stronger 20-ft southwest winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to around 35 mph combined with min
RH values values of 12 to 17 percent will result in near critical to
critical fire weather conditions, especially east of Tucson this
afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Fire Weather
Zone 152.

The next system Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night will
result in slight (10-20%) chances for precipitation for most of the
area. Friday into early Saturday will bring better chance of
precipitation to the area although precipitation amounts will
generally remain less than 0.25" Cooler temperatures and increased
moisture for the second half of the week will keep min RH values in
the 15 to 25 percent range during that time. Afternoon breezes are
expected with the Wednesday and Friday systems.

Dry with warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday.

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.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ152.

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