A nearly stationary thunderstorm on the afternoon of August 16th, 2025 caused flash flooding in the Tucson Metro. Water flooded the streets from curb to curb, roughly 6 inches of moving water, occurred in multiple locations.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
A nearly stationary thunderstorm on the afternoon of August 16th, 2025 caused flash flooding in the Tucson Metro. Water flooded the streets from curb to curb, roughly 6 inches of moving water, occurred in multiple locations. A nearby rain gauge reported 1.26 inches of rainfall fell in less than 1 hour.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 1:45 PM MST, 3 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 145 PM MST Sat Aug 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS....Isolated to scattered thunderstorms today across Southeast Arizona. Given the ample atmospheric moisture available for these storms, the main impact with these storms will be the potential for brief, locally heavy rainfall, especially southeast of Tucson in Cochise county. Otherwise, daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into next week with day to day variability in intensity and chances. && .DISCUSSION...A field of cumulus clouds with some towering have developed from Sells eastward. Several small, short-lived thunderstorms have developed producing 0.05 to 0.35 inches of rain. The 18Z KTUS sounding shows there is a suitable amount of low-level moisture with low-level RH at 58%, PWAT of 1.41 inches, and mixing ratio of 12.2 g/kg however there is a substantial layer of dry, warm air beginning around 600 mb. The low-level moisture has allowed for the development of the cumulus field however towering cumulus are having a hard time intensifying into strong storms due to the warm, dry layer. The storms that have developed this morning and for storms that will continue to develop into the afternoon they will be short-lived, sub-severe, with locally brief heavy rainfall. The 12Z HREF shows there is a 50-70% chance for 3 hr QPF to be greater than 1 inch in Cochise and eastern Pima counties this afternoon. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed us in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed us in a general risk for severe thunderstorms. The upper high currently located over the south-central US will slowly shift into southern New Mexico Sunday evening, the AZ/NM border by Monday afternoon, then on its way to the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. The high will strengthen and remain in the Four Corners area through the second half of next week. While the location of the high in the Four Corners is typically a positive location for an increase in Monsoonal activity, it all depends on the moisture that is available. Unfortunately, there looks to be an overall drying trend across the southwest that will decrease our PWATs and likely set-up a pattern where we have isolated storms east of Tucson capable of producing strong and gusty thunderstorm outflows but little rainfall. Storms further west of Tucson will have a better chance of producing heavy rainfall as they will be able to tap into a moisture supply from the Gulf of California. Due to the location of the high and drying trend, afternoon high temperatures gradually warm back up to 4-6 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday of next week increasing HeatRisk to Major by Wednesday and locally Extreme by Thursday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z. FEW to SCT clouds AOA 5k to 10k ft AGL across much of southern Arizona. Isolated showers and storms have been developing near KALK, KFHU, and KDUG that have produced brief, heavy rainfall. Isolated to scattered storms and showers will continue to develop areas KTUS eastward dissipating by 17/03Z. Cloud coverage will lessen by 17/07Z becoming SKC to FEW AOA 10k to 15k ft AGL. SFC winds will be from the west at 5 to 10 kts becoming light and variable aft 17/06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily chances for thunderstorms and wetting rain showers into early next week. Min RHs will generally be around 25 percent in the lower elevations and 45+ percent in the mountains today. Sunday, min RHs will start to drop back down to the 15-20 percent in the lower locations and 20-30 in the mountains by mid-week next week. Winds will generally be less than 15 mph with typical afternoon gusts up to 20 mph into next week. Monsoon moisture is projected to return late next week to provide higher chances for thunderstorms and rain showers. Temperatures will be around normal through this weekend, trending above normal the second half of next week. && && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Malarkey Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Video showed water from curb to curb and rushing with an estimated 6 inches of moving water along Mabel St from 2nd to 3rd Ave. A nearby rain gauge reported 1.26 inches of rainfall fell in less than 1 hour.
Video on social media shows an estimated 3 inches of water at intersection of Tyndall Rd and 1st Ave. A nearby rain gauge reported 1.26 inches of rainfall fell in less than 1 hour.
Water up past curbs, estimated 6 inches of water, on Tucson Boulevard south of Grant Road. A nearby rain gauge reported 0.29 inches of rainfall fell in less than 1 hour.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1291605, 1291606, 1291607.