A weak cold front encountering deep moisture led to slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall across Southeast South Carolina.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CHS wrote it up.
A weak cold front encountering deep moisture led to slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall across Southeast South Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 5:59 AM EST, 6 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 659 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push south of the area today. High pressure then builds into the region as Hurricane Erin passes well offshore to the east through the coming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weakness in the H5 ridge will shift from the Piedmont toward the coast later today and tonight. At the surface, a weak quasi-stationary boundary over/near the area (currently difficult to distinguish from surface obs) will be forced south of the Altamaha later today, where it will slowly dissipate tonight. Primary concern today is the potential for heavy rainfall given PWATs around 2.2-2.3 in. and weak lower and mid level flow leading to slower storm motions. Additionally, Westerly H5 flow around 15-20 kt could result in modest storm motion parallel to the surface boundary across SE GA, bringing the potential for training. Ample instability also exists, but limited DCAPE and shear will keep the severe threat very low. CAMs indicate initial convective initiation with enhanced convergence along the sea breeze across the SC Lowcountry early afternoon, followed by additional initiation along the I-95 corridor and inland through mid afternoon thanks in part to the orientation of the boundary. Greatest HREF 2 inch rainfall probs, around 30-50%, run along and just inland of the US Hwy 17 corridor. Convective activity shifts to inland GA this evening as coastal areas get worked over, with diminishing coverage late evening through the overnight hours. Highs reach into the 90s this afternoon outside of thunderstorms, with heat indices in the 100-105 range - typical for this time of year - then dip to the 70s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sunday: As an upper-lvl ridge builds over eastern CONUS, a weak area of low pressure will meander offshore. With an ample amount of moisture (PWATs > 2.0") remaining over the Southeast on Sunday, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours as the seabreeze pushes inland. The main concern will be localized heavy rainfall on Sunday as model guidance showcases slow storm motion. Thus, any storm that trains over an area for an extended period of time might cause localized flash flooding. Southeast Georgia may see greater storm coverage as it coincides with the area of greatest moisture. Monday and Tuesday: This upper-lvl ridge will continue build into the region from the north and allow for a drier airmass to take over and allow for the chance for precipitation to significantly decrease on Monday and Tuesday. This aforementioned weak low will become absorbed by Hurricane Erin as it passes to the east of the region on Tuesday, remaining comfortably well offshore. Additionally, there will be a noticeable drop in humidity with dewpoints in the lower 70s instead of upper 70s. Expect highs reach into the low to mid 90s, with heat indices staying under Heat Advisory Criteria. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Hurricane Erin will pass to the east of the region throughout the period and remain well offshore as the system moves north- northeastward across the Atlantic. Even though Erin will likely remain offshore, we will still experience impacts from the system. A large swell associated with Erin will likely cause a long period of dangerous surf and rip currents as early as Monday. Additionally, its outer wind field could aid in enhancing weak cold air damming over the region, keeping temperatures a bit cooler than normal. Otherwise, high pressure will stick around and allow for precipitation chances to be below normal for this time of the year. Another cold front could potentially approach the region by the by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR expected to continue through the morning. Primary aviation threat today is widespread showers and thunderstorms along the US Hwy 17 corridor this afternoon. Storms should be widespread, though timing remains uncertain, so have opted to handle thunder impacts with TEMPO groups to represent the most likely timing of impacts. Storms will produce locally heavy rainfall and the potential for brief IFR visibilities and erratic winds. Storm coverage wanes later this afternoon and evening, with VFR prevailing overnight across the SC Lowcountry, but a low chance of some MVFR ceilings at SAV that are too far out and uncertain to include in the TAF just yet. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions possible at all terminals with afternoon showers/thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Mainly light winds outside of any storms/outflow that slides over the waters today and tonight. Seas remain 1-3 ft in mainly modest ESE trade swell. Sunday through Thursday: High pressure will prevail over the local waters through early next week, yielding sub-advisory conditions. Expect north-northeasterly winds at 10 to 15 kts. It could become quite gusty along the coastline in the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Expect seas 2 to 3 ft on Sunday and most of Monday, until building 4 to 6 ft overnight on Monday as the swell from Hurricane Erin mixes into the marine zones. It's possible seas will build 6 to 8 ft on Tuesday afternoon as Erin will be its closest, still remaining comfortably well offshore, to the region then. This swell will be on tap throughout most the week and will likely cause a long period of dangerous surf and rip currents as early as Monday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for all marine zones on Monday night as seas begin to ramp up then. Also, High Surf Advisories will likely be needed as early as Tuesday evening as 8 footers start creeping into surf zones. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...Dennis LONG TERM...Dennis AVIATION...CEB/Dennis MARINE...CEB/Dennis
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston SC 641 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-171045- Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans- Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long- Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh- Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley- Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper- Tidal Berkeley- 641 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. See the Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook for more information about the following possible hazardous weather: - Extreme Heat .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. && The Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo/?wfo=chs
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston SC
843 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0610 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 WNW Georgia Southern 32.42N 81.82W
08/15/2025 Bulloch GA Broadcast Media
The media relayed reports of 4 trees down across
western Statesboro, mainly from Golf Club Circle to
Cypress Lake Road, along and west of Veterans Memorial
Parkway.
&&
Event Number CHS2500901
DPBThe Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:09 UTC.
19 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management reported the intersection Fishburne Street and Hagood Avenue closed due to flooding.
Emergency management reported the intersection of King Street and Huger Street closed due to flooding.
Emergency management reported the intersection of Huger Street and Benson Street closed due to flooding.
Emergency management reported Gordon Street and Simons Street closed due to flooding.
Emergency management reported East Bay Street between Amherst Street and Chapel Street closed due to flooding.
Emergency management reported Concord Street and Charlotte Street closed due to flooding.
Emergency management reported Morris Street between Coming Street and Jasper Street closed due to flooding.
Emergency management reported Ogier street closed due to flooding.
Emergency management reported the intersection of Washington Street and Society Street closed due to flooding.
Emergency management reported the intersection of Ashley Avenue and Calhoun Street closed due to flooding.
Emergency management reported a tree down near the intersection of Beach Hill Road and Windward Drive.
Dorchester County Emergency Management reported the intersection of Orangeburg Road and Highway 17A impassible due to flooding.
The Beaufort County 911 Call Center reported a car stalled on West Paris Avenue due to a flooded roadway.
A Beaufort County 911 Call Center reported a car stalled in floodwaters on Distant Island Drive.
The Beaufort County Sheriff Office reported flooding on Castle Rock Road, the intersection of Broad River Boulevard and Chesterfield Drive, the 100 Block of Broad River Village Drive, the intersection of Savannah Highway and Shell Point Road, and the 200 Block of Admiration Avenue. There was also a motorist assist in floodwaters near the intersection of Robert Smalls Parkway and Castle Rock Road.
The Beaufort County Sheriff Office reported a vehicle stalled in floodwaters near the intersection of Charles Street and Craven Street.
The Beaufort County Sheriff Office reported a vehicle stalled in floodwaters in the 2100 Block Boundary Street.
The Beaufort County Sheriff Office reported a vehicle stalled in floodwaters in the 100 Block of H.E. McCracken Circle.
A public webcam showed two vehicles stalled near the intersection of Highway 170 and Castle Rock Road due to flooding.
A public webcam showed another vehicle stalled near the intersection of Highway 170 and Castle Rock Road due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1292394, 1292395, 1292396, 1292397, 1292398, 1292399, 1292400, 1292401, 1292402, 1292403, 1292430, 1292404, 1292405, 1292406, 1292407, 1292431, 1292432, 1292433, 1292428, 1292429.