Drought in Arizona, April 8 to 30, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
335 AM MST Tue Apr 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...This week will see a strong ridge of high pressure
move into the area. This will bring a significant warm-up in
afternoon temperatures with some record highs across the region
expected Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Main story for the week continues to be warming
temperatures leading to record or near record highs Thursday
thru Saturday.

Today: Mostly sunny with patches of high clouds passing thru
under northerly flow aloft. Highs 5 to 8 degrees warmer than
Monday.

Wednesday: Upper ridge amplifies across the state resulting in
highs 4 to 6 degrees warmer than today.

Thursday: Upper ridge amplifies across the western CONUS with
highs 2 to 4 degrees warmer than Wednesday with record or near
record highs. Triple-digit highs across western Pima county where
Organ Pipe could see its 3rd earliest 1st 100 degree date. Ajo
already hit 100 degrees this year on March 25th which was record
earliest date for them.

Friday: Another day of record or near record highs with this
weeks warm-up peaking as the upper ridge axis pushes east. With
highs 2 to 4 degrees warmer than Thursday, there will be an
increase in areal coverage of triple-digit highs across Pima and
Pinal counties. Tucson is forecast for its first triple-digit
high of 2025 which would be a record earliest date eclipsing the
current record date of April 19 which occurred in 1989.
s lower in response to a weather system passing by well to our
north. Will see an uptick in afternoon breezes.

This week: Record or near record highs Saturday then highs cool 6
to 9 degrees on Sunday. There will be increased afternoon breezes
as a weather system passes by well north of the state.

Monday: Additional cooling as a southern stream system approaches
from the west.

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.AVIATION...Valid through 09/12Z.
Mostly SKC with patches of clouds AOA 20k ft passing thru under
northerly flow aloft. SFC winds terrain driven less than 10 kts
thru 08/18z and then again after 09/04z. At the other hours NWLY
6-12 kts with isolated gusts to 18 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and warming temperatures will be
the story this week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over
the area. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with
records by Friday. Min RH values will be in the single digits
each day with overnight recoveries in the teens to low twenties.
Winds will generally follow diurnal trends of less than 15 mph with
afternoon gustiness due to strong surface heating. By the
weekend, a passing weather system will increase southwesterly wind
speeds up to 15 to 20 mph across the region and overall elevating
fire weather conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures are forecast
Thursday thru Saturday.

Date                    Apr 10         Apr 11         Apr 12
                     FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport   97  97/2023   100  99/2023    98  96/1988
Ajo                   99 101/1989   102 100/2023    97 100/1936
Kitt Peak             79  77/1989    83  79/1989    80  75/1988
Organ Pipe Cactus    100  99/2023   102  99/2023    97  98/1985
Picacho Peak          94 100/2023    98 100/2023    96  97/2008
Safford Ag Station    95  95/1989    97  95/2023    97  93/1960
Sierra Vista          89  89/1989    92  89/2018    90  90/2018
Tombstone             89  90/1960    92  91/2018    91  91/2018
Willcox               90  90/1972    93  91/1946    92  92/1946

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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