Drought in Arizona, April 1 to 30, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 PM MST Mon Mar 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with slightly above normal temperatures
through Tuesday. An approaching dry weather system will bring
breezy to windy west winds Tuesday, especially to areas east of
Tucson. These conditions will result in critical fire weather
conditions and the potential for areas of localized blowing dust.
A series of mainly dry weather systems will bring cooler temperatures
midweek onward along with a chance of precipitation late in the
week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southeast Arizona is currently under some passing
cirrus clouds with temperatures, as of 2 PM MST, in the mid 70s
to low 80s in the valleys.

The next weather maker comes Tuesday when a low pressure system
drops into the area from the Pacific Northwest. This system
continues to look unimpressive in the precipitation front with a
20-30% chance in the White mounatins with very little accumulation
of rain or snowfall (less than an 0.5 inches of snow). With the
combination of the low RHs, increased winds, and high fire danger,
the Red Flag Warning is on track for Tuesday afternoon and
evening. With the moderate confidence in the increased winds the
Wind Advisory is also on track. East/northeast winds of 25-35 mph
with gusts 45-50 mph are possible, with the highest winds along
the Arizona/New Mexico border and the higher elevations. With the
increased winds, blowing dust is possible especially in the
problem areas like I-10 near the Willcox Playa and I-10 near
Picacho Peak, potentially reducing visibilities to less than a
mile at times. Take extra precaution if you plan on driving during
the stronger winds.

There is a break between systems on Wednesday with cooler high
temperatures in the low to mid 60s in the valleys. The longwave
trough continues to stick around the area through Thursday then a
shortwave trough drops lower Friday into Saturday. The confidence
in exact timing and depth of these systems are still low, but the
main impacts that can be cooler morning lows in the valleys of
Cochise County on Wednesday and Thursday mornings and increased
afternoon wind and slight chances (20-35%) for precipitation
Friday and Saturday. Accumulation of valley rain and mountain snow
remain low, with the highest amounts being 3 inches of snow in the
White Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Gusty west to northwesterly winds will remain today
and tomorrow with gusts 15-20 knots, strongest expected tomorrow
afternoon with gusts to 35-45 knots. Highest winds will be across
eastern AZ, including KDUG. Winds may become light and variable
overnight tonight before increasing again late morning tomorrow.
Mainly SCT but periods of BKN aoa 15 Kft, with some FEW- SCT
between 10-7 Kft overnight tonight between 06Z-13Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system moving into the region will
result in strong and gusty west winds 20-30 mph with gusts 45-50
mph Tuesday afternoon and evening (strongest winds along the
Arizona/New Mexico border). Given the low afternoon humidity
values between 10-15 percent and the high fire danger rating, a
Red Flag Warning is in effect for all the lower elevations from 1
PM to 8 PM Tuesday. Thereafter, expect occasionally breezy
conditions each day with a slight chance (20-40%) of light
showers late in the week and into the weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ150>152.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ507>513.

&&

Public...Tetrault
Aviation...Peters
Fire Weather....Peters

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