An atmospheric river type front tracked northward across the eastern Gulf of Alaska early on November 9th. High wind gusts impacted the portions of Prince of Wales Island and areas along Clarence Strait.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
An atmospheric river type front tracked northward across the eastern Gulf of Alaska early on November 9th. High wind gusts impacted the portions of Prince of Wales Island and areas along Clarence Strait. Rain quickly changed to snow early on the 9th in the Haines and Skagway areas with accumulations stacking up quickly.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 8, 10:03 PM AKST, 4 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1003 PM AKST Sat Nov 8 2025
.UPDATE...We continue with the High Wind Warnings and Flood Watch
for the southern zones where strong winds in the lowest 1-2
thousand feet AGL are 60 kt and we will get bands of heavier
precipitation come through with 1 hourly totals ramping up to over
0.75/in hour toward morning with locally higher rates where
forcing is greater on the southern facing slopes and where the
higher winds will be. We recommend folks adjacent to higher
terrain to be alert for stronger heavy rain runoff late tonight
into Sunday morning. In this pattern, landslides where persistent
heavy rain and higher winds persist have been known to happen
historically. People across the southern sections of the Panhandle
should remain alert to the latest information from local
officials.
We also continue with the Winter Storm Warning for primarily the
Haines and Klondike Highways. We are noting dewpoints dropping for
Haines and Skagway at this hour. With some drier air near the
surface, it may take some time for precipitation to work down to
Skagway and Haines. However near sea level there we could see
wetbulbing toward morning that will (at least) result in some
mixed rain/snow precipitation. Above the 400 ft elevation, snow
becomes more likely and out both roads we do expect more
significant snowfall totals by daybreak of several inches. Stay
tuned for further updates.
For the marine area...we continue with Storm Warnings for Clarence
Strait, with Gales across the southern 2/3rds of the interior
waters of the Panhandle...and Gales offshore over the eastern
GulfAK. Latest ASCAT data from satellite matches up well with
observations around Haida Gwaii into Dixon Entrance of winds near
50 kt as the low starts to strengthen to the SW of Haida Gwaii.
Winds across the southern inner channels of the Panhandle will
only get stronger through daybreak.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...Main concern overnight into Sunday morning will
be the strength of the winds for Ketchikan and Klawock where gusts
to 55 kt possible overnight and winds 2 thousand AGL off the deck
blowing from the SE at 60KT, though directly over terrain, these
winds could be drastically higher. CIGS and VSBYS across the
southern Panhandle will go periodically IFR where heavier bands of
rain are expected overnight. Central Panhandle precipitation less
intense with generally CIGS and VSBYS at MVFR, but the northern
sections around Haines and Skagway more likely to see IFR toward
12Z where a rain snow mix will ensue. Snow levels drop to around
400 ft so mountain passes across the northern Panhandle will be
IFR in heavier snow overnight into Sunday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 413 PM AKST Sat Nov 8 2025...
SHORT TERM...An atmospheric river moving into the panhandle is
bringing with it heavy rain, high wind, and (for places like
Skagway and Haines), snow potential Saturday night through Sunday,
as a late autumn storm system advances into the area.
Satellite and radar imagery show that the as of the time of
writing, our storm force low has finally started to reach the
panhandle proper. From a dynamics standpoint, the system has a
number of factors working in its favor, including an increasingly
negatively tilted trough aloft, a strong jet streak, an
atmospheric river component including model progged 1.2 inches of
PWAT, and a well organized warm front. Operational guidance has
finally fallen in line, with storm tracks converging around a
landfall between Baranof and Cross Sound. These have all combined
to produce a still intensifying system that will make landfall on
Baranof Island before continuing to race northward through
Sunday.
As the system races up from the south, expect rainfall rates and
wind speeds alike to both pick up through the evening and
overnight hours on Sunday. The southern panhandle will face the
worst of the wind and rain; with regards to rain - storm total
amounts of 2-5 inches near sea level are expected with higher
totals for areas of elevation. These will be joined by winds
gusting up to 70 mph near sea level (and with higher speeds
aloft), Saturday night through Sunday morning. A flood watch is
out for the southern and central panhandle, along with high wind
warnings for the southern panhandle. For additional details on
rainfall, please refer to the hydrology section of the discussion.
As the system continues to move northwards, the big concern turns
towards snowfall potential for the northern panhandle. Confidence
is high in significant snow accumulations for Klondike and Haines
Highways at elevation. The Klondike Highway could see up to 18
inches of snow, and the Haines Highway up to 10 inches. Confidence
is much lower in snowfall totals for Haines and Skagway proper.
While moderate snowfall accumulations (2-7 inches) are currently
in the forecast for these locations, it must be emphasized that it
is entirely possible that they receive significantly less snow
(if any at all), should snow-melt cooling prove insufficient.
There is also an outlier possibility of significantly more snow
falling (especially near Haines), should snow melt cooling eclipse
expectations. In the wake of the system, showers linger before a
gale force front arrives Monday.
LONG TERM...While the big story is in the short term forecast, the
panhandle will not be out of the woods just yet by the start of next
week. A gale force low is expected to develop along an elongated
trough extending from a system off of Kamchatka. This low will
develop southwest of the Alaska Peninsula, moving eastward into the
northern gulf Monday, pushing a gale force front into the panhandle
sometime Monday afternoon. This low will quickly become cutoff from
any upper level steering flow and also any upper level support, as
an amplifying trough in the jetstream will move over the gulf
Tuesday, overtaking the surface low. Overall this will lead the low
to be vertically stacked and likely occluded, or near that phase,
when the front pushes into the panhandle. This weakening of the
system, combined with the lack of upper level steering, has caused
deterministic models to have varying tracks for this feature Tuesday
into Wednesday. When checking ensemble model guidance, the general
consensus, aside from the weakening trend, is for the system to slow
down, and then lift northward into the central or northeast
panhandle before dissipating. During this whole time though, it
would continue to bring onshore flow to the panhandle with light to
moderate showers and some possibility for isolated thunderstorms
along the outer coast in the post frontal environment Tuesday
evening. Beyond this early week system, the outlook looks fairly
benign due to the aforementioned significant dip southward in the
jetstream through midweek. It will not be until later in the week
that the jetstream rebounds and another short wave disturbance may
spin up in the vicinity of Prince William Sound, with no significant
impacts expected from it at this time.
A band of moderate to heavy precipitation will accompany this front,
with heaviest rates along the outer coast due to orographic
enhancement. Overall 24 hour totals from from Monday morning through
Tuesday morning look to range from 1 to 2 inches as of this
discussion. For the far northern panhandle, the Haines and Klondike
Highways will likely remain cold enough to receive more snow
accumulation, with the prospect of snow for the cities of Haines
and Skagway being much more dubious. Stay tuned for further
refinement of the early week forecast as the weekend progresses.
AVIATION.../through Sunday afternoon/
General VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this afternoon,
with ceilings AOA 3500ft. Through this evening, conditions will
begin to deteriorate over from south to north across the
panhandle as a strong low moves out of the N Pacific and into the
E Gulf. By 06z to 12z, general widespread MVFR or worse flight
conditions as aforementioned low tracks into the E Gulf with CIGS
AoB 4000ft. Visibilities dropping down to intermittent 1 to 3SM
within heavier showers.
Strongest winds expected through the TAF period expected over the S
panhandle, increasing through 06z with sustained winds up to 30kts
and gusts up to 40kts near Ketchikan by 14z as low tracks northward.
Main aviation concern will be very strong LLWS around 2000ft
developing through 00z across the southern and central panhandle,
around 30 to 50kts SE-ly with high confidence of strong LLWS over
Ketchikan and Klawock. LLWS gradually diminished through 23z Sunday
as front pushes through the panhandle, with LLWS turning more SW-
ly around 25 to 35kts.
MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):
A storm force low will track along our coast through the overnight
hours. As of 1400 AK time Saturday afternoon easterly winds are
building to gale force in Dixon Entrance. These winds will
continue to strengthen, becoming southerly through the night. Main
chunk of storm force winds will impact southern Clarence Strait,
with strong-gale force conditions along the PoW and Baranof coast.
Sunday morning a frontal boundary will push east across the
Panhandle bringing a period of westerly winds, with gale force
subsiding to strong breezes. Touching on sea state, coastal buoys
are all under 15 ft as of 1400 AK time, seas will continue to
build in the central and southern coast, reaching 20 to 25 ft
overnight Saturday, with southerly seas able to penetrate into
southern Chatham Strait. Another gale force low swings into the
gulf Monday into Tuesday.
Inside (Inner Channels):
Winds are on the way up this Saturday afternoon across the inside,
with northerly winds building in Lynn Canal, and easterly outflow
winds in the central and southern Panhandle. As a storm force low
slides north along our coast over the next 12 hours, southerly
winds build in the central and southern inner channels, reaching
strong-gale force conditions overnight. For Clarence, a brief
period of storm force conditions will exist, with seas of 20ft
able to penetrate near and south of Nichols Passage, and near 15ft
for Revilla. Sunday winds quickly become southerly in the central
and northern Panhandle, with gale force conditions lingering in
Stephens and Chatham. Lynn Canal will see a sudden wind switch,
where north winds of 30 knots becomes south 30 knots rapidly.
Sunday evening into Monday winds subside near fresh to strong
breezes before another gale force low moves into the area Monday
night.
HYDROLOGY...
An atmospheric river continues to approach the Panhandle, with the
emphasis on heavy rain for areas south of Frederick Sound.
Forecasted PWAT (precipitable water) values continue to be
impressive for this time of year, with high resolution guidance
indicating near 1.2 inches of PWAT. "Normal" this time of year is
near 0.5 inches. Associated with this deep plume of moisture will
be dynamics able to effectively squeeze this moisture out,
through a negatively tilted trough and moist southerly flow
interacting with terrain. The higher terrain in the southern
region is situated very well to receive near 8 inches of rain
through Sunday night, with near 5 inches storm total rain for sea
level communities.
Through coordination with the AK River Forecast Center, we are not
concerned with flooding of major rivers. The main threat continues
to be flooding of areas with poor drainage and ponding of water
in more urban environments. Another major factor is a
combination of high wind and heavy rainfall, bringing chances for
isolated landslides in Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla
While most of Sunday night will feature moderate to heavy rain,
the most intense rainfall rates look to be near 6pm to 11pm along
Prince of Wales and Ketchikan areas. During this time frame 3
hour rainfall amounts will likely reach near 1 inch, especially in
the surrounding higher terrain.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ319.
Flood Watch until 9 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ326-328>330-332.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ328.
Strong Wind from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ329.
High Wind Warning until 9 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036.
Gale Warning for PKZ013-021-022-031>035-641>644-661>664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012-053-651-652-671-672.
&&
UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...GARMON
MARINE...AP
HYDROLOGY...AP
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind, 2 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
The Hydaburg AWOS measured high winds for several hours early on November 9th, including a peak gust of 68mph at 558am.
Rain changed to snow at the Haines airport at 145am on the 9th with rates increasing around 3am. By 8am, the COOP observer in town had measured 5.1 inches and at 811am the Haines Police reported that a tree was down at 18 mile Haines Highway. At 1050am, a trained spotter measured 6.25 inches of snow at 11 mile. Snow continued to pile up through the day with several more trees reported down including at Beach Rd at 1030am and at 37.5 mile Haines Highway at 336pm. The tree fall resulted in several power outage across the area, including one that took out the Haines Airport ASOS shortly before 2pm. Storm totals across the borough ranged from 8 to 15.25 inches with majority of that falling within a 12 hour period.
Rain changed to snow at the Skagway airport at 850am on the 9th with rates increasing around 11am. The SNOTEL site at Moore Creek, elevation of 2250 feet along the Klondike Highway, began measuring snow after 4am and had reached 6 inches at around 1pm. The SNOTEL topped out at 10 inches of new accumulation at 4pm the same day. Skagway Customs estimated 6 to 7 inches from this event.
The Metlakatla area saw an extended period of high winds starting early on the 9th of November. The mesonet station at the Annette Island Packing Company measured a peak gust of 79mph at 330am AKST. The Metlakatla AWOS topped out at 55mph between 455 and 536am. Another mesonet station at Walden Point Rd, near the ferry terminal, measured a peak gust of 63mph at 215pm AKST. At elevation, Yellow Hill peaked at 91mph during this event.
The Marine Exchange station at Salmon Landing in Ketchikan briefly measured high winds during the afternoon of the 9th, including a peak gust of 64mph at 144pm AKST. Another station at Saxman measured a peak gust of 62mph at 159pm and the Ketchikan tide gauge topped out at 55mph at 206pm. The roof wind at the Ketchikan Airport on Gravina Island had a peak gust of 63mph at 153pm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1302075, 1302147, 1302150, 1302092, 1302114.