NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 11, 6:15 AM AKST, 5 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 11, 6:15 AM AKST, 5 hours 26 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
615 AM AKST Thu Dec 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold weather continues across most of Northern Alaska, but that
will change later this morning and through the weekend as a low
moves off of Siberia. The low will shift east and move along the
Arctic coast from west to east, bringing widespread snowfall of at
least an inch with much warmer temperatures to most of Alaska
north of the AK Range. On the North Slope, winds will increase
significantly today as the low moves in, which could result in
blowing snow and reduced visibilities at times, especially where
they combine with falling snow. Early next week, while there is
uncertainty due to potential snow and cloud cover in the area,
very cold conditions over the region could drop temperatures into
the -40s or colder at times across much of Eastern Alaska, even
outside typical cold spots.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- This evening, a system will move into the area and yield snow
totals widely reaching 1 to 3 inches through the weekend, with
higher totals of over 4 inches possible from the north slopes of
the Western AK Range to the White Mountains.
- Winds will begin to increase out of the north through Windy and
Isabel Passes Friday afternoon and lasting through Saturday
morning, with blowing snow and reduced visibilities down to 1/2
mile or less possible at times.
- Cold weather will subside today across the Interior as this
system pushes out the cold air mass currently in place.
Considerably warmer temperatures are likely on Friday, with
highs widely rising into the positive single or double digits.
- Early next week, while there is uncertainty due to the chance
for light snow or cloud cover, much colder air is going to
settle back into the area, especially over the eastern half of
the Interior. Some areas, such as the Yukon Flats and Upper
Tanana Valley, could see temperatures drop enough to necessitate
Cold Weather products.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- From today through the weekend, much warmer temperatures are
expected, with increasing clouds and around 2-6 inches of snow,
with locally higher amounts farther north and inland over higher
terrain. Winds will also increase with gusts approaching 35 mph
around the Seward Peninsula and 50 mph from Kotzebue Sound and
northwest. Pockets of sleet and/or freezing rain may mix with
snow in the YK Delta/Norton Sound area as it begins to taper off
late Thursday.
- Temperatures will return to more seasonal values with initially
drier conditions going into the early part of next week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Southerly winds will begin to increase through Anaktuvuk Pass
ahead of the approaching low pressure system by late this
evening. Ground blizzards and whiteout conditions are possible
through Friday with these winds. They will shift westerly after
passage of the front, which will allow them to weaken, but
snowfall will likely continue through the weekend.
- Snow is expected to move in across the region going into the
weekend as a low moves along the Arctic coast from west to east.
1 to 4 inches of snow are widely possible across the area.
Higher totals are possible in the Brooks Range and Arctic
plains, mostly east of the Dalton Highway. Portions of the
eastern Brooks Range southeast of Sagwon may receive between 6-8
inches of snow.
- Through the weekend, widespread winds of 25 to 40 mph, with
higher gusts, will shift from SW to W and could combine with
falling/fresh snow to allow for blowing snow, which could reduce
visibilities at times.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A broad ridge is extending from the North Pacific across the
Bering Sea and into the Chukchi Sea, while general troughing is
extending from the high Arctic/Canadian Archipelago southwest
into Eastern Alaska. While cold air remains in place this morning
across most of Northern Alaska, a low over Siberia will shift
north into the Chukchi Sea later this morning before shifting
eastward along the Arctic Coast. As it moves east, it will
produce 1-3 inches of snow across most of Alaska north of the
Alaska Range. Higher totals will be possible in parts of
northwestern Alaska, the southern Seward Peninsula, and in the
Arctic plains and eastern Brooks Range east of the Dalton
Highway. An area extending from the western Alaska Range to the
White Mountains may also see up to 4-6 inches of snow.
As the low shifts east, winds will significantly increase across
the North Slope, with many areas seeing sustained winds up to 25
to 40 mph, with higher gusts. Parts of the eastern Arctic coast
may see sustained winds approaching 50 mph. Where these winds
combine with falling snow, they may result in blowing snow-induced
visibility restrictions, potentially reaching blizzard criteria
(especially on the eastern Arctic coast). Winter Storm Watches
have been issued on this basis for Zones 804 and 805 from Nuiqsut
east, with Winter Weather Advisories elsewhere. There will also be
westerly winds across the Interior, which may result in blowing
snow in the more elevated areas. In the Alaska Range, a Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect--after initial west winds, the winds
may turn to the north Friday afternoon resulting in a funneling
effect in the passes, strengthening the winds there.
After the low exits the area Saturday morning, most snow and winds
will fall off across the Interior, with colder conditions
reconsolidating. The primary exception is the North Slope, which
could see a series of lows moving into the area beginning Saturday
night, each of which could drop light snow in the area and
increase the winds/blowing snow again, especially on the eastern
Arctic coast. A quick burst of snow is also possible on the
Western Seward Peninsula, St. Lawrence Island, and the YK Delta
coast on Saturday with a weak surface low/shortwave aloft.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
From Monday through late next week, the ridge aloft will build
into the central to northern Bering Sea, with extensive troughing
across northwestern Canada. On the North Slope, a series of lows
is possible on the North Slope moving in from over the Arctic,
each of which may produce light snow and bring up the winds (and a
possibility of blowing snow), especially on the eastern Arctic
coast.
Elsewhere, while periods of very cold air are expected on Monday,
there is increased uncertainty on the likelihood for snowfall or
the persistence of the cold air in the area. While most models/
their ensembles support increased north winds with light snow
over Western Alaska late Monday into Tuesday, some extend the snow
as far east as the Eastern Interior, while others keep it farther
west. This has a significant effect on cloud cover and
temperatures, with the drier and clearer solutions being much more
conducive to temperatures near or below -40F. The best confidence
for such temperatures is on Monday, when temperatures at the 850
mb level across much of Eastern Alaska will range from -25 to
-30C. Thereafter through most of the rest of the third week of
December, model guidance suggests the periphery of the ridge aloft
could shift into the Interior, pushing out the cold air, although
the cold air could reconsolidate at times.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801>803-806-807-813>824.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ847>850.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ804-805.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808>810.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803-808-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-855.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-817-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ807-856.
Gale Warning for PKZ809.
Gale Warning for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ812-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ813-859.
Gale Warning for PKZ814-860.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
&&
DS