Hail and Damaging Winds in Wyoming, June 10, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1037 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is likely today with the primary hazards being locally
  heavy rainfall, large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated
  tornado threat.

- Near to above average temperatures with near daily chances for showers
  and storms through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Current upper air analysis depicts upper level ridge over the
region with weak shortwave over WY/MT. Some convection associated
with the wave has developed over western ND and portions of NE WY.
This wave will move through the CWA this morning with chances for
showers and thunderstorms through the early morning hours. The
stronger wave responsible for our severe weather threat this
afternoon is currently over eastern OR/western ID.

This upper level wave will move through the region this afternoon
with attendant frontal boundary stretching from CO into WY/SD.
Vigorous southerly flow/LLJ will advect ample moisture into the
region with sfc dewpoints reaching into the 50s to 60s by early
afternoon. Front will reach northeastern WY by noon/early
afternoon with ML CAPE in NE WY reaching into the 1000-2000 J/kg
range. A few scattered showers/storms may begin developing around
this time with 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40kt supportive of rotating
updrafts. The front will cross into western SD as the afternoon
progresses with thunderstorms increasing in coverage as ML CAPE
values across western SD will reach 1500-2500 J/kg with 0-6km bulk
shear ranging from 30-45kt. This line of storms will cross
through the CWA through this afternoon into this evening with the
severe threat largely over by around 10 pm MDT. As stated, shear
will be supportive of rotating updrafts. Mid-level lapse rates of
around 6-8 C/km and MU CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and inverted V
profile are supportive of large hail and damaging wind gusts. An
isolated brief tornado or two can't be ruled out. Another threat
for this afternoon will be locally heavy rainfall as PWAT values
of 1 to 1.4" (150-175% of normal) advect into the region.

Weak ridging builds into the region tomorrow resulting in a dry
and seasonably warm day, the ridge flattens out by Wednesday and
we're put under mostly zonal flow through Friday before another
weak ridge builds into the region. A few disturbances riding along
the flow will result in periodic, near daily chances for
thunderstorms after Tuesday. In terms of temperatures, we will
warm up through the week with highs generally near to just above
average. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with
highs reaching the upper 80s with south central SD potentially
seeing highs in the low 90s. Temps cool off slightly but remain
near to slightly above average through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1030 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Local MVFR cigs over the Black Hills will continue to dissipate
late this morning. A few high based showers/storms will continue
into early afternoon but mainly VFR conditions will prevail. By
19Z-20Z, a cold front will move into the region, resulting in
strong to severe thunderstorms developing over northeast WY and
far western SD, then spreading eastward across western SD into
central SD later this afternoon and early evening. IFR conditions
likely in stronger storms along with large hail and damaging
winds. Storms are expected to exit the CWA by 05Z, with VFR
conditions returning, with relatively light westerly winds.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...Pojorlie

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
201 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-072>078-WYZ054>060-111115-
Harding-Northern Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foothills-Rapid City-
Southern Foothills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Western Fall River-
Northern Oglala Lakota-Northern Jackson-Bennett-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foothills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foothills-Eastern Fall River-Southern Oglala Lakota-
Southern Jackson-Southern Perkins-Northern Campbell-
Southern Campbell-Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-
Weston County Plains-Newcastle-Northeastern Crook-
201 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
today, meaning that scattered severe storms are possible. Primary
hazards include large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and
isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms will be possible at times in the period, a few of
which could be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ046-047-049-111115-
Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
301 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
today, meaning that isolated severe storms are possible. Primary
hazards include large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms will be possible at times in the period, a few of
which could be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity