A moist Pacific flow moved over an arctic airmass at the surface which resulted in heavy snow across much of the Billings Forecast Area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
A moist Pacific flow moved over an arctic airmass at the surface which resulted in heavy snow across much of the Billings Forecast Area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 2:49 AM MST, 12 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
249 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday Night...
KEY POINTS
-> Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for most areas from
now through Friday morning.
-> Light to moderate bands of snow are occurring across south-central
and southeast MT, producing localized areas of 1-3" of snow and
reducing visibilities below 1/4 mi through this morning
-> There will be a lull in snow this afternoon and evening
-> Heaviest snow will occur on Thursday, with 3-8" possible across
the entire area
OVERVIEW
Upslope flow is strong enough this morning to produce persist
snow bands across south-central MT. At the same time, a strong
surge of moisture is being brought up with a weak shortwave from
WY into Carter County to give them a short round of snow this
morning as well. All bands and areas of snow have already dropped
1-2 inches, and could drop an additional 1-2 inches of snow
through this morning, and bands of snow along roads will quickly
reduce visibilities to under a quarter of a mile. Any melted snow
likely froze overnight as well, causing icy and slick surfaces.
There will be a lull in the snow this afternoon and evening as a
brief period of ridging sneaks into the area and removes any
large-scale ascent. That said, shallow upslope flow persists, and
light snow may still occur off and on through this period.
The heaviest snow will occur throughout Thursday as the upslope
flow deepens, better large scale ascent moves over the area, and
a better shot of Pacific Moistures also enters the picture.
Despite being only a day away, a lot of uncertainty exists with
this round of snow due to very subtle differences of the
meteorological set-up. As an example, there's currently a
statistical range (10th - 90th percentile) of snowfall of 3-10"
possible for Billings. We will stick with Winter Weather
Advisories for now, but an upgrade to a Warning for certain parts
of south-central MT may be warranted over the next day depending
on how ensembles and models trend. Regardless of the uncertainty,
we are certain that surfaces will be slick and snow covered and
will produce hazardous travel conditions, and some shoveling and
plowing has a high chance of being needed.
CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITIES
Probability of snow exceeding XX amount Wednesday Night through
Friday Morning (does not include this mornings snowfall)...
City | 2" | 6" | 8"
--------------------------------
Billings | 95% | 50% | 35%
Sheridan | 80% | 15% | 5%
Big Timber | 95% | 65% | 40%
Livingston | 90% | 35% | 15%
Red Lodge | 95% | 70% | 40%
Vertz
Friday through Tuesday...
The overall pattern will advertise drier and warmer weather (once
we get through Friday). The greatest uncertainty will be with
high temperatures, given there will be a fresh layer of snow on
the ground (see short term discussion above).
Pattern: A northern trough will exit the area Friday morning and
leave behind an amplified ridge through Saturday night. A
shortwave will undercut the ridge on Sunday and provide a brief
period of lift for a chance of rain/snow showers. Ridging will
build back up for Monday and Tuesday for drier weather and a
continuation on the warming trend.
Precipitation: Light snow will linger over mainly southern
locations Friday morning. Latest GFS has pushed an area of light
snow a little farther north Friday morning, so the chance of
snowfall (30-50%) will be retained for 12-18z Friday. Conditions
dry out after 18z Friday. The next chance of precipitation
(20-40%) will come Sunday afternoon and evening, as a weak wave
moves across. Highest chances (30-50%) will over the mountains and
nearest the foothills. Developing weakly southwest flow will
prompt a continued low chance of snow showers in the mountains
Monday and Tuesday, while the plains will be dry.
Temperatures: The coldest day will Friday, with highs in the 20s,
Warming temperatures occur over the weekend and into early next
week, with highs in the mid to upper 40s by Tuesday. This warmup
may be tempered some by fresh snowpack, but still confident high
temperatures will end up above seasonal normals Monday and
Tuesday. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
Widespread VFR to IFR conditions can be expected west of KMLS
(including KSHR, KBIL, KLVM) in low clouds and snow showers this
morning. The snow showers will weaken by 18z and allow for VFR
conditions to develop and reamin into early evening. Snow will
then move back in and create IFR to LIFR conditions late tonight
through Thursday. Mountains will be obscured. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030 019/024 012/024 009/039 018/043 029/048 027/048
5/S 9+/S 93/S 00/U 01/B 21/B 11/B
LVM 031 018/024 010/026 009/041 019/045 028/047 029/049
4/S 9+/S 82/S 00/U 02/O 30/B 12/R
HDN 032 018/027 010/026 004/041 010/042 023/049 022/049
5/S 8+/S 93/S 00/U 00/B 21/B 01/B
MLS 025 015/023 007/021 008/036 013/038 022/043 021/043
4/S 26/S 31/B 00/U 00/U 10/B 00/B
4BQ 030 017/027 011/024 007/041 013/044 022/047 024/049
5/S 39/S 62/S 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/B
BHK 024 010/023 004/019 006/036 011/041 019/041 018/043
3/S 14/S 21/B 00/N 00/U 00/B 00/B
SHR 031 015/029 009/026 004/043 014/047 024/050 023/051
6/S 49/S 94/S 00/U 00/B 21/B 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST Friday FOR
ZONES 29>31-36-37-40-57-58-64-65-138-139-169-171-173.
Winter Weather Advisory now in effect until 11 AM MST Friday
FOR ZONES 34-42-63-141-170-172-228-235.
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 11 PM this evening to 11
AM MST Friday FOR ZONES 56-66>68.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST Friday FOR
ZONES 198-199.
&&
weather.gov/billingsPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
1123 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM Snow 8 SE Roundup 46.35N 108.44W
02/14/2024 M2.0 inch Musselshell MT CoCoRaHS
0700 AM Snow 6 ENE Roundup 46.48N 108.42W
02/14/2024 M3.0 inch Musselshell MT CoCoRaHS
0700 AM Snow 15 N Pompeys Pillar 46.20N 108.00W
02/14/2024 M1.6 inch Yellowstone MT Co-Op Observer
0700 AM Snow Wilsall 46.00N 110.66W
02/14/2024 M3.0 inch Park MT CoCoRaHS
0800 AM Snow 1 NW Columbus 45.64N 109.27W
02/14/2024 M1.9 inch Stillwater MT Co-Op Observer
0800 AM Snow 2 NNE Roundup 46.47N 108.52W
02/14/2024 M1.4 inch Musselshell MT CoCoRaHS
0901 AM Snow 20 NW Miles City 46.62N 106.11W
02/14/2024 M1.0 inch Custer MT Trained Spotter
&&
STPThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall of 5 to 8 inches occurred across the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wyoming in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Wyoming, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1158061.