High Wind in Wyoming, August 28, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
550 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday night...

Deep upper level low pressure system will move through the
forecast area today. Surface cold front is already moving through
Wheatland county as of 2am. Cold front should reach Billings by
5am, Sheridan/Miles City around 8am, and through far eastern zones
before noon. Main impact with the frontal passage will be gusty
winds along and behind the front. Expect winds gusting 40 to 50
mph along the western foothills (Livingston, Big Timber,
Harlowton) today. For the rest of the area expect westerly winds
gusting 25 to 40 mph at times. Temperatures will be 10 to 15
degrees cooler today compared to Tuesday. Precipitation chances
will be mainly confined to the western foothills this morning.
Once downslope winds increase they will dry out the lower
atmosphere ending precipitation chances.

At this time not looking at warning criteria wind gusts over
western foothills today, mainly due to 700mb winds staying below
50kts. There are hints of mountain wave potential off the Crazy
mountains mid day today, but expect that thermodynamics will be
weak enough to prevent acceleration down to the surface. That
being said, those traveling US-191 in high profile vehicles or
towing trailers should be prepared for strong crosswinds around 50
mph today, strongest around mid day.

Fire concerns are elevated today across the forecast area.
However, the lowest RH values will be over central portions of
the district to the east of where the strongest wind gusts will
exist. These central areas picked up precipitation on Monday
helping to mitigate the fire threat just a bit and temperatures
will also be cooler (below ~10 deg below average) today taking the
edge off as well. Fosberg indicies are elevated for 3 to 4 hours
this afternoon over Sweet Grass and Wheatland counties, but not
significant elsewhere. HDW showing 75th percentile values for
western foothills but no 90th percentile values. Overall looks
like a short borderline critical day for a small portion of the
forecast area covering the western foothills. Will hold off on any
fire highlites and will continue to advertise elevated fire
weather conditions with the gusty winds and dry airmass moving
through.

Another shortwave associated with the upper low will move through
the area tonight, keeping winds stronger than a normal overnight
period.

The area will remain under the upper trof on Thursday. It will
be a breezy start to the day, then gusty winds develop for the
eastern half of the forecast area. The strongest gusts, around 40
mph, will be east of a Miles City to Baker line. Expect dry
conditions with temperatures once again in the 70s, maybe a few
lower 80s near Billings.

Friday through Wednesday...

Dry and warm conditions are expected Friday through at least
Sunday as an upper level ridge builds in over the region. While
Saturday looks to be a few degrees cooler than Friday behind a dry
backdoor cold front, high temperatures look to remain near to
above normal in the 80s and lower 90s. With that said, the warm
temperatures Friday will combine with low relative humidities
(minimums in the teens), but relatively calm winds look to limit
any major fire concerns that day.

As we move into next week, a shortwave looks to round the upper
ridge, lowering heights and reintroducing the chance of
precipitation to the area. Uncertainty remains on the extent of
this system, but models are suggesting a low chance of
precipitation returning to the mountains Monday and to the
mountains and plains Tuesday. Otherwise, temperatures will remain
warm to start next week with highs in the 80s to lower 90s
continuing. Arends

&&

.AVIATION...

At the 12Z TAF issuance, the cold front was through KLVM and KBIL
and headed toward KMLS and KSHR in the next hour or two. Behind
this front, breezy 20 to 30kt northwesterly wind gusts can be
expected for a few hours. Winds will then decrease mainly east of
KBIL by mid-day, but winds west of KBIL will increase once again
out of the west with 25 to 40kt gusts common around KLVM, K6S0,
and K3HT. These surface winds will decrease around sunset this
evening. Thursday will be another breezy day with westerly wind
gusts in the 20 to 35kt range, strongest around KMLS and KBHK.

Outside of winds, there remains a low chance of rain over areas
mainly west of KBIL this morning. There have been a few lightning
strikes with this activity, but confidence is low for lightning
over KLVM. This activity will obscure the western mountains at
times. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 052/079 049/089 054/085 053/087 055/092 059/091
    1/B 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
LVM 071 044/077 044/088 049/085 047/087 051/091 054/087
    3/W 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/W
HDN 075 047/080 046/090 050/086 052/090 053/094 056/093
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
MLS 072 050/074 048/085 053/082 051/083 057/090 058/092
    0/N 10/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 071 048/075 048/087 054/083 051/085 060/092 059/093
    0/N 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 073 046/071 047/084 052/082 047/079 053/088 055/090
    0/N 20/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 073 042/078 045/088 050/086 048/090 054/092 055/092
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings