A shortwave embedded within a broader upper-level trough increased shower and thunderstorm activity across the region on the afternoon of Oct. 15th.
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The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
A shortwave embedded within a broader upper-level trough increased shower and thunderstorm activity across the region on the afternoon of Oct. 15th. Enough shear was available to produce rotation in a cell near Battle Ground.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 15, 1:23 PM PST, 3 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 223 PM PDT Tue Oct 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An active pattern will persist through much of the week as as a series of fronts cross the region and bring beneficial valley rain and high mountain snow through Thursday. Weather trends drier Friday and Saturday before a weak atmospheric river potentially crosses the area on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM...Light, intermittent rain continues across the area this afternoon and evening as a weak upper disturbance moves over the region within southwest flow aloft. Rainfall amounts will be minimal, from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Will continue to ease into fall-like weather as a cold front moves across the area on Wednesday. Associated with more upper level support, this somewhat stronger front will bring a period of widespread rain late tonight through Wednesday morning. Model QPF amounts for this system are expected to remain around 0.10-0.25 inch across the interior valleys and 0.25-0.50 inch along the coast and in the higher terrain. The cooling trend will continue as the upper level trough drops over the Pacific NW Wednesday night into Thursday. This will enhance shower activity across the area by late Wednesday night while 850 mb temps fall to around 0 degrees C through Thursday. These cooler temperatures aloft will bring lowering snow levels to the mountains, as well as a slight chance for thunder, beginning Wed night at the coast. There is potential for this system to be the wettest of the week, but amounts will likely vary widely across the area due to the showery nature of the precipitation. There is high confidence (greater than 80%) of widespread QPF exceeding 0.25 inch, while the coast and mountains will most likely see amounts generally around 0.50-1.00 inch through Thursday afternoon. There is also high confidence of snow falling at the higher Cascade passes, beginning early Thursday morning. Snow levels are expected to fall to around 4000-4500 ft Wed night into Thursday. The probability of snowfall exceeding 6 inches has fallen slightly to around 30-50% but there is still fairly high confidence (70-80%) of around 3 to 6 inches of total snowfall at the Willamette and Santiam passes. The chance of snowfall exceeding a foot has decreased to below 10%. Although the Winter Storm Severity Index indicates low probability of minor impacts (likely due to the warmer road temps), still be prepared for possible winter driving conditions through Cascade passes on Thursday. /DH .LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...Friday into Saturday is setting up as the driest period within the coming week as ensemble clusters show good agreement in a low amplitude ridge building into the Pacific Northwest behind the departing trough late in the week. As such, could see temperatures on Saturday rebound into the upper 60s to perhaps 70 degrees in a few interior valley locations. But, uncertainty increases on Saturday especially for northern portions of the forecast area with clusters indicating at least 20% of ensemble members bringing rain farther south. Precipitation chances increase again by Sunday as the ridge starts to flatten out and a potential atmospheric river focused on coastal British Columbia and the Olympic Peninsula sags south across western Oregon on Sunday. Precise forecast details and timing will have to be narrowed down in the coming days, but the weakening and progressive nature of the system would seemingly limit the potential for higher end precipitation amounts or hydro concerns at this time. DH/CB && .AVIATION...Wide variety of flight conditions this afternoon as an upper level trough to the northwest brings southwest flow across the region. Rain decreasing from the front that moved into the area yesterday, but next front to move into the area tonight will bring more rain. At the coast, between KAST and KTMK low stratus lifted revealing VFR conditions, but towards KONP IFR/LIFR cigs & vis in that area where weak high pressure resides. Forecast-wise HREF & CONSShort guidance did fairly well today and shows the KAST area remaining VFR then to MVFR 06-08Z Wed and back to VFR after 14Z Wed. A little less confidence in for the KONP area on when/if IFR will lift. While the probability for IFR conditions at KONP lower, it does not go below about 50% chance through tonight. But VFR chances increase around midday Wed as westerly wind picks up behind the front. Inland...mainly MVFR with more VFR south of KSLE. Expect MVFR to lift to VFR by 00Z Wed, then back to MVFR about 12-15Z Wed as the front moves inland. Winds southwest to 5 kt for at inland terminals becoming southerly overnight, while at the coast west winds to 10 kt backing to southerly tonight. PDX APPROACHES...A 60-80% chance for MVFR in the area until 00Z Wed, then VFR should prevail. MVFR cigs may form (30-40% chance) 12-15Z Wed, then after about 18Z Wed chances for MVFR decrease. Also worth mentioning is a 10-20% chance for IFR cigs 14-17Z Wed. /mh && .MARINE...Weak surface high pressure over the waters this afternoon will give way to a front that will move through the waters later tonight into Wednesday morning. This front is associated with a parent low off the coast of British Columbia and will shift winds southerly. Expect a return of breezy southerly winds tonight with gusts up to 20 kt. Isolated gusts up to 25 kt are possible overnight across the waters, however opted against issuing a new Small Craft Advisory for now as those gusts currently forecast to be short-lived and not widespread. Winds turn westerly Wednesday after the front moves through. Wednesday night into Thursday, the aforementioned low near British Columbia dips southward into the Pacific Northwest, shifting winds northwesterly with gusts up to 20 kt. Late in the week, another robust low pressure system in the NE Pacific will follow and track towards British Columbia. Model guidance currently shows the associated surface front reaching the Pacific Northwest this weekend, returning breezy southerly winds to our waters. Seas remain in the 7 to 9 ft range through Wednesday and may rise just above 10 ft Thursday. Also, persistent northwest fetch sets up off the B.C. coast Wednesday into Thursday which may generate a fresh northwest swell to bring choppier seas to the coastal waters. mh/Alviz && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210. && www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland
The Portland,OR radar (KRTX), 33 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:11 UTC.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Video showing what looks like an actual funnel cloud. Weak rotation evident on radar with a shower during the time of the report. No debris was being lofted, so confidence is high this was not a tornado.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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