NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 4:12 PM MST, 1 hour 48 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 19, 4:12 PM MST, 1 hour 48 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
412 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Several pushes of valley rain and mountain snow will
track into Utah through Wednesday. Mountain snow showers will
likely last into Thursday. High pressure will bring drier
conditions later in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Thursday)...A mild, dry southwest flow
has been in place in the warm sector ahead of a shortwave trough
that broke off the associated longwave trough positioned in the
eastern Pacific. Valley temperatures where efficient mixing of
enhanced southwest flow was had temperatures into the upper 50s
and low 60s. A baroclinc zone and precipitation is oriented
southwest to northeast from northeast Nevada to southeast Idaho.
That boundary will be the focus of precipitation Monday into
Tuesday. Confidence is high that banding with enhanced
precipitation will be between I-80 and the Idaho border. HREF
members show quite a bit of disagreement on the precise
positioning, which leads to lower confidence on both rainfall and
snowfall totals. Moist southwest flow will bring orographic
enhancement to places like Provo Canyon and other portions of the
northern mountains. Snow levels will be at roughly 7000 feet.
The boundary will be fairly stationary through Tuesday, with
precipitation continuing. Another shortwave will eject inland
from the longwave trough Tuesday. Valley rain and mountain snow
will build into southern Utah Tuesday morning and track northeast
through the day. There is uncertainty with where the main axis of
precipitation will be, but snow levels will be at roughly 7000
feet.
The longwave trough will push inland Wednesday, bringing more
forcing and moisture to keep precipitation going through much of
the day. Colder conditions will build in after the trough axis
tracks through. With moisture advection from the shortwave, then
the longwave trough along with upslope enhancement, a Winter
Weather Advisory was issued for other mountain zones in Utah.
Snow accumulation from Monday evening into Thursday will range
from 1-2 feet for many mountain locations, with amounts
decreasing with lower terrain.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Thursday)...Thursday starts with the last
bit of influence from departing system. Some weak energy will
continue to advect through within the now mostly zonal flow, with at
least some moisture also lingering. With the colder air resulting in
initial snow levels around 4500-5000 feet, this will result in some
isolated morning rain/snow mix for portions of the Wasatch Front,
and some isolated to scattered snow showers for the higher elevation
mountains and on into the Wasatch Back and southwest Wyoming.
Despite increasing midlevel heights moving through the day as
ridging starts to build in, will maintain isolated to scattered
partially instability driven rain/snow showers, particularly for the
higher elevations. That said, overall impacts look pretty minimal,
and any remaining mountain accumulations likely to be light (largely
on the order of an inch or two of snow or less)... Though one
exception may be the Upper Cottonwoods where potential for continued
orographic lift through lingering low level moisture could yield a
bit more (~30% chance of greater than 4 inches of snow).
Moving into Friday, will see ridging continue to build into the
forecast region with moisture continuing to decrease accordingly.
The combination of drier and more stable conditions with the ridge
will yield dry conditions setting in, and with H7 temps also on the
rise, mild afternoon high temperatures expected across much of the
region. On Saturday the ridge remains the dominant influence, but as
the axis begins to slip a bit eastward and another deep Pacific low
continues to churn offshore, will help southwesterly flow increase,
and in turn an increase in mid/upper level moisture and cloud cover.
Still, anticipate dry conditions and mild temperatures with
afternoon highs around 5-10 degrees above climatological normal.
While another mild day is expected on Sunday, will see the pattern
start to shift as influence of the Pacific low increases. Some
timing differences noted amongst guidance sources, but in general
the consensus indicates the low should start some penetration
inland, and locally this will bring about better moisture flux and
synoptic forcing for ascent. The more active pattern accompanied by
elevated precipitation chances then continues on into next week as
the low progresses further. For Sunday into Monday the signal so far
favors the central to northern Utah mountains, with many locations
(especially the typically local hotspots) seeing favorable (greater
than 50% chance) odds of more than 0.5 inches of QPF.
While at the tail end of (and just beyond) the current long term
period, forecast details get further murky in regards to the
potential for the Pacific low to phase with a northern stream trough
sometime Monday/Tuesday, with subsequent potential for a stronger
baroclinic zone to push through. Currently, ensembles seem to lean
in favor of this scenario which would open the door for some of the
coldest air the area has seen in a bit of time. To use SLC as an
example, by Monday evening 61% of ensemble members show H7 temps at
or below -10C, and 24% show H7 temps at or below -15C. By Tuesday
morning this increases further, with 78% of ensemble members showing
H7 temps at or below -10C, and 38% showing H7 temps at or below
-15C. The majority of ensemble members include precipitation through
this time as well, and given those temperatures, this would bring
more favorable conditions for valley snow, and potentially
accumulating valley snow. That all said, this remains quite a ways
out in time, and given all the moving parts, uncertainty is still
high... But given the current look, it'll be worth monitoring trends
in further forecast updates.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Gusty southerly winds will likely abruptly
transition to west-northwesterly around 01z. Rain showers will also
begin around this time, with the highest chances for MVFR (70%) or
IFR (15%) CIGs through roughly 08z. Between 08-18z, showers will
decrease in coverage, with CIGs likely bouncing between MVFR and
VFR. Winds overnight will likely be variable at times, making it
difficult to pinpoint a direction, especially since wind speeds will
not necessarily be below 8kts. Another round of rain showers will
likely arrive after 18z, with a higher chance of MVFR-IFR conditions.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A band of moderate to heavy
precipitation is likely to set up overnight from KENV to KLGU,
though there is still some uncertainty in the exact location and how
it progresses. Within this band, expect MVFR to IFR conditions and
valley rain/mountain snow. This band will start to shift north in
the morning, with another round of stronger showers moving into
southwestern UT by 16z, reaching the Wasatch Front by 17-19z. Strong
southwesterly flow in valleys will begin to decrease after 01z, then
return to areas south of KPVU Tuesday afternoon, though only around
20-25kts.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM MST Wednesday for UTZ110.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM MST Wednesday for UTZ111-112.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 10 PM MST Wednesday
for UTZ113-117.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM MST Wednesday
for UTZ125.
WY...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Wilson
LONG TERM...Warthen
AVIATION...Cunningham
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity