The US Virgin Islands were under a Tropical Storm Warning due to the tropical cyclone threats associated with Ernesto. Ernesto approached the islands late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a tropical storm intensified into a hurricane across the Atlantic Ocean northwest of St Thomas on the 14th at around 11 AM AST.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
The US Virgin Islands were under a Tropical Storm Warning due to the tropical cyclone threats associated with Ernesto. Ernesto approached the islands late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a tropical storm intensified into a hurricane across the Atlantic Ocean northwest of St Thomas on the 14th at around 11 AM AST. Before the event unfolded, the CoCoRaHS network also showed that the Virgin Islands received above-normal rainfall, ranging from 4 to 7 inches in the 30 days preceding the storm across all the islands.
The first rainbands associated with the tropical storm arrived on Tuesday under a northeasterly wind flow. During the night hours of Tuesday, the first strong area of rainfall reached the Virgin Islands. The system quickly dumped over four inches of rainfall across the islands, triggering flash flooding.
Strong gusty winds were observed as the hurricane's outer rainbands moved over the islands. The highest wind gust recorded in the Virgin Islands was 79 mph on Buck Island, Saint Thomas. Reports included fallen trees, downed power lines, and other damages.
Ernesto brought significant flooding, along with tropical storm-force sustained winds and hurricane-force wind gusts, which caused substantial damage across the US Virgin Islands. Nearly 65% were associated with wind gust damage and tropical cyclone conditions, while 32% were associated with flooding and landslides. The power grid was affected by the tropical-force winds and heavy rains. The initial estimates for the damages caused by Ernesto are approximately 5 million dollars.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 5:15 AM AST, 6 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
515 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands through this evening. Tropical Storm
Ernesto is bringing strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the
region. A significant risk of flooding remains expected, with
mudslides likely in areas of steep terrain. Marine and coastal
conditions will remain deteriorated today. A gradual improvement
in weather conditions is expected by tonight as Ernesto moves
further north of the region and over the open Atlantic waters.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of
Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 19.5 North,
longitude 66.6 West, moving toward the northwest at 16 mph (26
km/h). The center is currently about 85 miles north- northwest of
San Juan with strong and frequent rainbands affecting most of the
area. Tropical storm sustained winds are expected across most of
the eastern side of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques and the U.S.
Virgin Islands this morning. Lingering moisture will persist this
afternoon providing conditions for ongoing rainfall. Marine and
coastal conditions will remain deteriorated with seas greater than
10 feet and life- threatening rip currents, and rough surf
conditions lasting through at least late this afternoon.
Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals
of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected
across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches
across northwestern Puerto Rico. Flooding remains a threat were
flash flooding and mud/landslides are possible. A gradual
improvement in weather conditions is expected by tonight. By
Thursday, warm and hot conditions will return along with fair
weather across the region.
Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the progress of
this system and have their tropical emergency plans ready now.
Please refer to the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin (TCPAT5) issued
by National Hurricane Center and Hurricane Local Statements (HLSSJU)
issued by WFO San Juan PR for updated information.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...
The current forecast track has Tropical Storm Ernesto far away
from our region by Friday, about 650 miles, and it is forecast to
be a Hurricane at that time. Weather conditions should improve in
our local area and return to a more typical pattern. The latest
Precipitable Water (PWAT) models suggest values returning to
average values. The interaction of surface winds across the
Atlantic due to Ernesto's positions and a surface high pressure
across the eastern Atlantic should promote southeasterly winds
through Sunday, then shift from the east on Monday lasting through
Tuesday. At the upper levels, a TUTT will approach from the
northeast, promoting favorable conditions aloft for daily showers.
In general, local weather during the long term will be dominated
by east-to- southeast winds, daytime heating, and local effects.
Therefore, afternoon convective activity with showers and
thunderstorms is expected across the interior and northwestern
Puerto Rico. For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers dragged
by the winds will reach the islands mainly during the morning
hours. Limited excessive rainfall risk will probably be present as
ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas is possible
with shower activity, mainly on Friday. Warm conditions will
return by Friday and last through the weekend, mainly across
coastal and lower elevations.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
SHRA/TSRA associated to the rainbands from TS Ernesto will continue
to affect the region, generating MVFR to brief LIFT conditions
throughout the period. W winds in TJSJ and TJPS and N winds in TJBQ
at 15-30 knots will gradually turn from the WSW-ESE at 15-20 knots
after 14/14Z. Winds at US terminals will remain from the S at 30-40
knots, decreasing to 20-30 knots after 14/14Z. SHRA/TSRA will
decrease once Ernesto moves away.
&&
.MARINE...
Tropical Storm Ernesto, located 85 miles north- northwest of
San Juan, will continue to move northwestward across the Atlantic
waters, exiting the area later today. Rough, hazardous seas will
continue at through at least tonight. Conditions are expected to
improve on Thursday.
&&
.BEACH FORECAST...
Beach conditions will continue deteriorate as Tropical Storm
Ernesto moves through the region. Large breaking waves are
expected to impact the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today
through tonight. High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current
Statements are in effect through at least tonight.
&&
HYDROLOGY...
Tropical Storm Ernesto will bring rainfall accumulation of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches for portions of the
Virgin Islands, eastern and southern Puerto Rico, as well as the
interior. The risk of flooding will be significant, with rapid
river rises, and mudslides likely. Please refer to the latest
Flash Flood Watch (FFWSJU) for additional information.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Hurricane Watch for PRZ012-013.
Tropical Storm Warning for PRZ001>013.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for
PRZ001>003-012-013.
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for PRZ001>013.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001>003-005-
008-012-013.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001>003-
005-008-012-013.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ010.
VI...Hurricane Watch for VIZ001-002.
Tropical Storm Warning for VIZ001-002.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-
002.
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VIZ001-002.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001-002.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002.
AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ711-716-723-726-733.
Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ711-712-716-723-726-733-735-741-
742-745.
&&
RC-RAM-YZR-OMS-ERG-LIS-RVTPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1014 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0950 AM Tropical Cyclone Coto Norte 18.43N 66.44W
08/14/2024 Manati PR Public
911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A FALLEN TREE IN
STREET CEIBA COTTONETE IN VEGA BAJA.
ACCORDING TO THE REPORT THE ARBOL IS IN FIRE
JUST IN FRONT OF SOME HOUSES. ESTIMATED WIND
GUST OF 40 MPH.
&&
LISPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1017 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0946 AM Tropical Cyclone 4 WNW Jayuya 18.23N 66.65W
08/14/2024 Utuado PR 911 Call Center
911 CALL CENTER REPORTED AN INCIDENT WITH AN
ELECTRICAL POLE IN FIRE DUE TO STRONG WINDS
IN PR-140 UTUADO. ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 40
MPH.
&&
LISPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1019 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM Flash Flood 1 NNE Sabana Eneas 18.10N 67.08W
08/14/2024 San German PR Emergency Mngr
Emergency managers reported that PR-114 was
impassable by the PR-317 crossing. This was
due to Rio Viejo being out of its banks.
&&
CVBPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1024 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM Flash Flood 3 NNW San German 18.12N 67.06W
08/14/2024 San German PR Emergency Mngr
Emergency managers reported that flood
waters were affecting PR-358 making it
impassable due to Rio Hoconuco being out its
banks.
&&
CVBPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1029 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0849 AM Debris Flow Parcelas Nuevas 18.14N 66.17W
08/14/2024 Cidra PR Public
911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A MUDSLIDE IN
PR-173 NEAR PABLO FRIED CHICKEN. THE
MUDSLIDE IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ROAD.
&&
LISPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1042 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0956 AM Tropical Cyclone 1 E Jagual 18.16N 65.98W
08/14/2024 San Lorenzo PR 911 Call Center
911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A FALLEN ELECTRICAL
POLE AFFECTING CAMINO LOS RATONES IN PR-181.
ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 40 MPH.
&&
LISThe San Juan radar (TJUA), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:51 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The public reported flash flooding occurring in Garden Street near Emancipation Gardens Park. The road was impassable and fallen trees were floating around.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in U.S. Virgin Islands in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in U.S. Virgin Islands, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1214544.