Very heavy rain over several hours led to the second episode of flash flooding in the Bismarck area in less than 24 hours. This flash flooding was no where near as severe as the day before (13th) and was concentrated on the south side of the city.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
Very heavy rain over several hours led to the second episode of flash flooding in the Bismarck area in less than 24 hours. This flash flooding was no where near as severe as the day before (13th) and was concentrated on the south side of the city. Several feet of water was flowing through some streets. Some basements took on water and some trailer homes were surrounded by flood waters.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 11:43 AM CST, 17 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1243 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will continue across central North Dakota today. The highest risk for flooding is along the Interstate 94 corridor from Glen Ullin to Jamestown, and the Highway 200 corridor from Beulah to Carrington. - Quieter weather is expected Friday into early next week, with a slight warming trend through the weekend. && UPDATE Issued at 1106 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A more organized cluster of thunderstorms is entering the Bismarck/Mandan area. While thunderstorms are not as intense as yesterday (Tuesday the 13th), they are still producing around an inch to an inch and a quarter of rainfall per hour, and are expected to last a couple hours. This is enough to where street flooding is expected. Therefore, a Flood Advisory has been issued for the Bismarck/Mandan area until 5 pm CDT. UPDATE Issued at 918 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms continues to expand in the southwest, while thundershowers have entered the southern James River Valley of ND. There are also isolated thunderstorms occurring in the north. Fortunately, thunderstorms aren't training as of now. However, flood concerns persist as areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms should continue to expand through the day. In addition, portions of the central, especially where the Flood Watch remains in effect, are likely to be impacted by multiple rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 645 AM CDT radar imagery shows convection increasing along a line from near Bowman to Rugby, with storm motion vectors roughly parallel to this boundary. Another batch of showers with embedded storms is pushing north through the James River Valley in northeast South Dakota and will soon be crossing the state line. CAMs continue to struggle with observed conditions, and there is still notable run- to-run inconsistency on timing, coverage, and intensity of storms. But all CAMs do show the increasing trend that is now starting to emerge on radar. Forecast expectations for today remain on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 431 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A mid level shortwave trough will drift eastward across the region today, with a closed circulation forecast to develop around 700 mb. At the surface, lee troughing is forecast to shift into the Central Plains, with an inverted trough extending north through the Dakotas. Strong moisture transport on the downwind side of the trough axes will aid in providing lift and moisture for widespread thunderstorms across western and central North Dakota throughout the day. The highest chances for storms per CAM guidance shift from western North Dakota this morning to central North Dakota this afternoon, but CAMs do maintain a large degree of spread in finer details of both timing and coverage. The main concern with thunderstorms today is the potential for excessive rainfall. Most, if not all thermodynamic ingredients are supportive of this hazard. Precipitable water in the 1.5 to 2 inch range approaches climatological maximum (the BIS RAOB from yesterday evening sampled 1.81 in). Warm cloud depths are forecast in the 3000 to 4000 m range, with unusually high deep layer RH for this part of the country. CAMs have been consistently simulating areas of 2 to 4 inches of QPF, with pockets of +5". The 00Z HREF probability-matched mean QPF shows the highest potential for excessive rain from the Missouri River valley between Lakes Sakakawea and Oahe to the Devils Lake Basin and northern James River Valley, which is a slight northward shift from previous guidance. The one potential factor that could limit the number of flash flooding incidents today is the synoptic setup and its relation to storm motion. Exclusive examination of CAMs' reflectivity output implies a quick enough motion that would limit long durations of intense rainfall rates. This may partially be derived from the eastward progression of the low pressure system as a whole. In addition, the lack of a well-defined frontal boundary orthogonal to moisture transport does not favor training convection. However, forecast Corfidi vectors are 1) very short, especially in closer proximity to the forecast position of the closed mid level low over central North Dakota, and 2) neither orthogonal to the inverted surface trough nor parallel to the motion of the mid level trough. It is also curious that CAMs are showing a quicker progression of the system as a whole when most guidance is closing a mid level circulation, which theoretically slows a shortwave's progression. Yet another consideration on storm motion is that cold pool driven storm propagation should be limited today. This is all to say that while there are some merits to it, we don't fully buy into the quicker storm motions in recent CAMs. This analysis of the forecast combined with observed excessive rainfall along the I-94 corridor yesterday evening has prompted us to issue a Flood Watch for a large portion of central North Dakota, in effect from 9 AM to 10 PM CDT today. The northward shift in recent guidance led us to exclude counties south of the Interstate, though we cannot rule out localized flash flooding there. We also kept the northward extent of the watch south of Highway 2 in acknowledgement that the northward shift in guidance may be slightly over done and is a more recent development in model guidance. In addition to the excessive rain threat, a few storms may become strong to severe today. This potential seems greatly limited by deep layer shear only around 20 kts, but several CAMs have been simulating UH tracks that are indicative of at least strong storms. Southwest North Dakota may be a better target area for more of an isolated strong to severe storm this afternoon, where buoyancy and instability should be stronger. The low pressure system will slowly drift off to our east tonight into Thursday, but there is uncertainty on how quick the exit will be. Some recent guidance has trended more towards a strong deepening and stalling of the surface low over the Red River Valley late tonight into Thursday morning. Should this occur, central North Dakota would see a cloudier, rainier, breezier, and much cooler day on Thursday than what is currently being portrayed in the forecast. The favored synoptic pattern for the end of this week into next week can still be characterized by omega blocking, but there are stark contrasts among ensemble clusters that emerge after this weekend. Prior to next week, there is lower ensemble spread in the placement of the ridge axis from the Central Rockies to the Northern High Plains, with the thermal ridge inching closer to the state each day through Sunday, which has therefore emerged as the warmest day with forecast highs in the 80s statewide and closer to 90 along the Montana border. There is also a signal for a shortwave passage through the top of the ridge on Saturday, which the NBM carries 20 to 40 percent PoPs for in western North Dakota. The greater ensemble uncertainty for next week is related to the strength of longwave troughing from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes, with both cooler and warmer solutions for the Northern Plains equally favored at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms persist over much of central North Dakota, mainly along and east of Highway 83. These will continue to gradually end from west to east through the day today, though may linger in the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains tonight and into the day Thursday. MVFR/IFR ceilings present over much of central ND will also gradually end from west to east. Although IFR and possibly LIFR ceilings are expected in the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains tonight into Thursday morning. These IFR ceilings may build back west towards KMOT and KBIS tonight, although confidence is low in just how far west they will make it. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ019>023-025-034>037. && UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Telken
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1249 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 NDZ019>023-025-034>037-151800- Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder- Stutsman- 1249 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 /1149 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central North Dakota and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Flood Watch is in effect until 10 PM CDT. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. Numerous thunderstorms are expected into this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazards weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. NDZ002>005-010>013-046>048-050-051-151800- Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce- Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 1249 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Numerous thunderstorms are expected into this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazards weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040>045-151800- Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope- Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux- 1249 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 /1149 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated thunderstorms are possible into this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazards weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. Telken
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
815 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0810 AM Rain 2 NE Bismarck 46.83N 100.75W
08/14/2024 M1.69 Inch Burleigh ND Trained Spotter
24 hour rain total. Small hail during heavy
rain yesterday.
&&
JAAPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
820 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0818 AM Rain 8 NE Crown Butte Lake 46.95N 100.98W
08/14/2024 M5.58 Inch Morton ND Public
Photo of rainfall totals near Harmon Lake.
&&
JAAPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
824 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0823 AM Rain 3 NNE Bismarck 46.84N 100.76W
08/14/2024 M2.90 Inch Burleigh ND NWS Employee
24 hour rainfall total. Small hail up to
0.50 inch diameter during heavy rainfall.
&&
JAAPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
909 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0907 AM Rain 1 NNW Bismarck 46.82N 100.80W
08/14/2024 E3.50 Inch Burleigh ND Public
24 hour rainfall Facebook report.
&&
JAAPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1004 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1003 AM Rain 7 N Bismarck 46.91N 100.76W
08/14/2024 M2.50 Inch Burleigh ND NWS Employee
24 hour total.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1009 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1008 AM Rain 1 SE Mandan 46.82N 100.87W
08/14/2024 E1.50 Inch Morton ND Public
24 hour rainfall Facebook Report.
&&
JAAThe Bismarck radar (KBIS), 3 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:00 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain fell.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1214418.