Heat in Texas, September 13, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
622 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

A quiet Friday is in store with some morning fog, but otherwise
quiet conditions as high pressure remains in place over the
region. High temperatures will once again be slightly above normal
in the mid to upper 90s east to just above 100 west. Heat index
values top out similar to yesterday, generally between 100 and
105.

As we head through Saturday, what is currently TS Ileana in the
eastern Pacific will be making landfall on the western side of
Mexico and pushing energy toward Texas. A stream of upper level
moisture will already be bringing high clouds today, but the
remnants of Ileana will push more clouds and moisture toward the
area. Expect the deepest moisture will be west of our area by the
end of the short term period, but and it is discussed further into
the long term period.

For the coastal flood advisory...tide levels have dropped off
significantly this morning from what we were seeing last night.
However, water levels in the bays are still fairly high so will
leave the advisory in place for right now. Expect it'll be able to
be cancelled later today or tonight after confirmation water
levels in the bays are coming down and no longer pose a flooding
concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts across the northern
Brush Country, and minor to moderate across the remainder of South
Texas.

- Low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through
Thursday.

There have been a few changes in the models and mainly just one it
looks like. The GFS took what is now TS Ileana from the Pacific and
pushed it over the mountains in Mexico and into the Rio Grande
Plains of South Texas, however, that feature looks to go north into
Arizona, with a coastal trough trying to get started. Initially,
the GFS brings rain into the Rio Grande Plains and the Brush
Country before moving south into Deep South Texas and limiting the
chances for rain from low to medium to just low now. Looking at
the other models available (ECMWF, CMC(GDPS Canadian), ICON, and
UKMET), the chances that rain gets in during the morning is even
lower (10-20%), and moves away from the region on Sunday. We then
get into a pattern of hot, humid weather, with sea breeze showers
and thunderstorm in the afternoon/early evening, that just get
into the Brush Country each day through Thursday.

As mentioned, the conditions into the middle of next week will be
hot and humid. High temperatures each day range from around 90°
along the coastal islands to either side of 100° in the Western
Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains with the minimum RH ranging
from 40% (Rio Grande Plains) to 70% (Coastal islands) leaving us
with Heat Index values of about 100-110 through the week. That
leaves us with what we with the moderate to major heat risk in the
Brush Country and minor to moderate around the rest of South Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Fog and low clouds have developed once again at CRP and especially
ALI TAF sites this morning. LIFR conditions currently noted at
ALI, though this has been going in and out all night. CRP now
bouncing between IFR and LIFR, but predominantly IFR. Have also
included a brief tempo for VCT as it could get foggy around
sunrise. All fog and low clouds should clear by mid-morning with
VFR conditions expected the rest of the day. Have mentioned fog
for ALI once again tomorrow morning with that being the most
confident site. VCT and CRP have lower chance and not included in
TAF at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Light southeast winds will continue through today before
increasing to weak to moderate this evening. Rain chances will be
near zero through Saturday. The weak to moderate south to
southeast flow will continue into late next week. There is a low
to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday
which will go into late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  76  95  76 /   0   0  10  10
Victoria          97  75  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           101  77 100  78 /   0   0  10  20
Alice             98  75  98  75 /   0   0  10  10
Rockport          92  78  92  78 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla          102  77 102  78 /   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        96  76  96  76 /   0   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       89  80  90  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...PH/83