An upper level cut off low pressure system slowly moving eastward across Arizona and New Mexico spurred widespread showers and thunderstorms on the evening of the seventh into the early morning hours of the eighth. Warm air advection ahead of the low brought elevated instability in excess of 1000 J/kg.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
An upper level cut off low pressure system slowly moving eastward across Arizona and New Mexico spurred widespread showers and thunderstorms on the evening of the seventh into the early morning hours of the eighth. Warm air advection ahead of the low brought elevated instability in excess of 1000 J/kg. A line of thunderstorms became severe as it moved across Crosby County generating a severe wind gust near Ralls.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 7, 11:15 PM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1115 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1104 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 - Rain showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread this evening and continuing through Friday. - Flood Watch in effect from 6 PM today through 6 PM Friday for areas along and east of I-27. - Dry and warmer this weekend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level trough and associated low spinning across southern Arizona this afternoon. This has lead to showers and thunderstorms across the FA this morning and afternoon. As the upper level low continues to spiral eastward, closer to the TX Panhandle, we will begin to see coverage in showers and thunderstorms increase late this afternoon through Friday afternoon. Moisture will continue to be on the rise out ahead of the upper level system this afternoon as strong southwest flow aloft brings in moisture from the H2 jet, in addition to H7 to H8 southerly flow advecting moisture into the region. Dewpoints above seasonal normals for this time of year around 1 to 1.25" and forecast soundings depicting a deep column of moisture suggest showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, especially this evening through the overnight hours as large scale forcing for ascent moves overhead and isentropic ascent develops across the FA. Areas across the Rolling Plains looks to have the best chance of seeing heavy rainfall overnight as a surface low moves through providing slightly better instability with MUCAPE values ranging from 1000-1400 J/kg. Locations across the area could see up to 3" to even 4" of rainfall by tomorrow morning, while areas on the Caprock could see around 1" to 2". Therefore a Flood Watch will go into effect at 6PM today for areas along and east of the I- 27 corridor and end 6 PM Friday. Showers and thunderstorms should begin to decrease in coverage by the late morning hours tomorrow as the upper level low exits and we begin to lose jet dynamics and instability. Upper level flow will then shift out of the west as we see the system exit which will lead to dry and quiet weather conditions through the rest of the day Friday. As for temperatures, overnight lows will continue to reflect the "warmer" trend from previous runs as we see warm and moist easterly low-level flow and a tongue of theta-e across the Rolling Plains into the northern South Plains. With this and low-level clouds expected, we should see temperatures remain above freezing tonight with lows in the upper 30s across our northwestern counties and in the upper 50s across our southeastern counties. Lingering cloud cover through the early afternoon and a surge of cooler air being brought in by a southward expanding surface high to our north, should keep daytime highs Friday cooler in upper 40s across the northwest and in the upper 60s across the southeast. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 The upper low will push northeastward into the Central Plains tomorrow night before moving into the Great Lakes region early Sunday. Mostly quiet conditions will follow behind the upper low as mostly zonal flow sets up overhead for the weekend. Models begin to greatly diverge with the overall upper pattern early next week and beyond. The GFS brings a quick cold front southward early Monday as an quick moving upper shortwave trough pushes eastward across the Northern Plains. The ECMWF, meanwhile, keeps upper ridging across the central CONUS sans a cold front. Models do agree, however, on a mid-week cold front. While there is consensus on a passing upper trough pushing the front through the FA, the ECMWF develops an embedded shortwave trough within the base of the main upper trough and brings some low end convection chances to the Rolling Plains Wednesday. The GFS has a less progressive, broader trough resulting in dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 Ceilings and visibilities continue to be the primary aviation concern across the region through late Friday morning. Additionally, numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to move southwest to northeast across the region. Although prevailing visibilities will fluctuate from VFR to high MVFR categories, ceilings will be much lower and fluctuate from low IFR to LIFR categories. Exact timing of these fluctuations and precipitation impacts remain difficult. Ceilings and visibilities will very slowly improve through early to mid Friday afternoon followed by VFR conditions areawide by early Friday evening. Winds will be on the increase Friday and may be gusty at times. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ024>026-029>032- 035>038-041>044. && SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...02
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 220 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 TXZ021>044-082030- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 220 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will continue today, increasing in coverage this evening. From late afternoon through tonight conditions will favor heavy rainfall mainly from the Interstate 27 corridor eastward. A Flood Watch has been issued beginning at 6 PM this evening. In addition, isolated strong storms will be capable of producing hail to the size of quarters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through much of the day on Friday. Heavy rain is possible at times, and a Flood Watch is in effect through 6 PM Friday evening for areas along and east of Interstate 27.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
728 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
TXZ032-038-080215-
King TX-Cottle TX-
728 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN KING AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COTTLE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CST...
At 728 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southwest
of Guthrie, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Guthrie, Grow, Finney, Chalk, and Hackberry.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3346 10051 3366 10051 3400 10026 3387 10005
3384 10005 3384 10000 3373 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 214DEG 34KT 3355 10047
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
MCZSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1222 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
TXZ035-036-080645-
Crosby TX-Lubbock TX-
1222 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LUBBOCK AND
NORTHWESTERN CROSBY COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM CST...
At 1222 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Slaton, moving northeast at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Slaton, Crosbyton, Ralls, Lorenzo, Ransom Canyon, Caprock, and Cone.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3349 10171 3383 10143 3362 10114 3339 10156
3339 10157
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 223DEG 46KT 3347 10160
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MCZSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1245 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
TXZ036-080715-
Crosby TX-
1245 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN CROSBY COUNTY THROUGH
115 AM CST...
At 1245 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Crosbyton, moving northeast at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 55 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Crosbyton and Ralls.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3363 10144 3383 10127 3383 10104 3357 10104
3347 10134
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 233DEG 43KT 3362 10132
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
MCZThe Lubbock radar (KLBB), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:45 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Ralls measured a severe wind gust of 61 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1216208.