Hail in Texas, November 8, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
325 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 206 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Warm, humid, modestly unstable air prevails today across Southeast
Texas, fueling a smattering of showers and a couple thunderstorms.
The most activity exists along a corridor from College Station
southward to the Gulf, and this is where the heaviest rain and
thunderstorms should be expected through sundown.

Later this evening, a cold front will enter the area from the
west, with a broken line of showers and thunderstorms along with
it. The best forcing for thunderstorms, particularly stronger to
severe storms exists well to our north. Indeed, the closer to you
get the Gulf coast, the more we come under the influence of the
anti-cyclone aloft helping to ventilate Hurricane Rafael over the
Gulf. As a result, the best potential for thunderstorms - and any
small threat for stronger storms at all - will be clearly north of
the Houston metro. Indeed, the marginal risk area drawn out in
SPC's Day 1 outlook seems quite a good summary of where there's
any severe threat at all.

The excessive rain counterpart also highlights the best potential
for locally heavy rain north of the Houston metro as well. It
hits the threat a little harder, likely because of precipitable
water values up to around 1.8 inches allowing for rain rates that
could overwhelm poor drainage locations. Fortunately, there should
be enough storm motion that it will mitigate concern beyond
localized problem spots.

By tomorrow morning, the front looks to be a little bit east of
the Houston metro, which is roughly where it is expected to stall
out. This creates a west-to-east gradient across the area. Farther
west, we can expect enough dry air to filter in that rain chances
will largely end, and we may even be looking for the sky to become
partly cloudy by mid-day tomorrow. As you go east, however, dry
air will increasingly struggle to scour out the moisture, keeping
high cloud cover in place and some lingering rain chances,
particularly east of I-45 and even more so east of the Houston
metro, more in Liberty and and Chambers counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The weak cold front stalls offshore and becomes less defined on
Sunday. But don't let the word "cold" fool you. The southern half
of the CWA is expected to be relatively muggy with highs in the
low 80s. Farther north, it appears you'll enjoy highs in the
mid/upper 70s with less humidity. Global models remain divergent
on the upper air pattern starting early next week. GFS shows a
more zonal flow pattern on Monday-Tuesday while the EC is more
amplified, placing SE Texas on the western side of a building
ridge. Interestingly, these differences don't appear to result in
great model variances regarding what we experience at the surface
on Monday/Tuesday. Temperatures are likely to remain quite warm,
with highs generally in the 80s and lows ranging from the 60s
across the southern CWA and 50s to the north. However, the
divergent upper air patterns appear to make a difference as we
head into the middle of the next week.

For now, our forecast looks more like the EC and its ensembles,
featuring a more robust trough that moves from the Rockies and
into the plains, while a "decent" cold front pushes southward into
SE Texas on Wednesday. PWs have trended lower in recent global
deterministic / ensemble runs for Wednesday. The NBM responded to
this by saying "there will be no PoPs!" This makes since
considering how dry the 850-500MB appears. But there remains
sufficient LL moisture as the potential front pushes through. So I
didn't want to totally give up on Wednesday PoPs (~20%) just yet!
Our forecast also features a post cold front cool down, with
highs generally in the 70s with lows in the 50s. We even have 40s
for lows in our temperature grids across our northern counties.
How nice! But if the pesky GFS is onto something, then Steam Bath
November continues through the end of the week. And even if the
#TeamColdFront models are correct, it appears an UL ridge could
quickly build in its wake, limiting any cool down to a day or two
or three. Oh fall oh fall where art thou?????

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

CIGs gradually improving, and should be a mix of high MVFR or low
VFR by 18Z, which should hold through the afternoon. Smattering of
showers about, and that should also continue - have pretty broad
blanket of VCSH, and while impacts specifically to terminals are
possible, not high enough confidence to go with a stronger mention
right now. Also, an isolated lightning strike can't be ruled out,
but largely not enough confidence for a mention in the TAFs
either. Do have a PROB30 for CLL as showers appear stronger that
far west, but even this may be a bit too aggressive.

Tonight, expect degrading conditions overnight as cold front
sweeps into the area from the W/NW. Pretty good confidence in a
brief window for prevailing SHRA, but otherwise sticking with VCTS
as there will be some lightning within the line of showers as
well. Also expecting some window of IFR CIGs in the heaviest part
of the line as well. Front will stall out just of the east of the
terminals, so there will be decreasing confidence in CIG
improvement towards end of period from west to east - but
optimistically take all but GLS to MVFR by end of forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Swell from Hurricane Rafael continues to push into the Upper Texas
Coast Gulf waters this afternoon and will likely impact the region
through Sunday. Seas of up to 8-10 feet are expected in our
offshore waters, where a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through Sunday morning. The swell should also result in higher
water levels at the coast along with an enhanced rip current risk.
For now, water levels are expected to remain below Coastal Flood
Advisory criteria. Winds through the weekend are expected to
become northeast at 15-20 knots, lower in the bays. These winds
should decrease by Monday, before becoming onshore again on
Tuesday. A frontal boundary on Wednesday could bring a chance of
rain and a switch to offshore flow in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  60  74  60  79 /  60  20  20  10
Houston (IAH)			  67  77  68  81 /  70  50  20  20
Galveston (GLS)			  71  79  72  81 /  60  60  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 PM CST this evening through
     Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ370-375.

&&

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self