Widespread moderate to heavy rain fell on much of the South Plains and Rolling Plains region from late on the 17th through the early morning hours of the 18th. An intense mid level storm system in combination with abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific brought this heavy rainfall.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Widespread moderate to heavy rain fell on much of the South Plains and Rolling Plains region from late on the 17th through the early morning hours of the 18th. An intense mid level storm system in combination with abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific brought this heavy rainfall. This storm system initially strengthened over southern California and the northern Gulf of California, where strong jet energy carved out a closed low. After forming, the low started moving eastward through northern Mexico on the 16th before accelerating northeastward late on the 17th, passing over Far West Texas and racing across the South Plains on the 18th. Spotty and generally light showers during the day on the 17th quickly grew in coverage and intensity during the evening as the moisture and lift worked in tandem. Widespread moderate to heavy rain formed over the Permian Basin and expanded and spread northward across the South Plains late on the 17th. Meager instability limited the lightning production but the deep and warm lower atmosphere did not limit the rainfall coverage or intensity. Bands of the heaviest rain targeted parts of the central and southern South Plains, particularly along and near the US Highway 62 corridor from Brownfield (Terry County) up to Lubbock (Lubbock County). Within this swath, two to three inches of rain fell in short order, with areas around Brownfield to tallying around four inches. Runoff from the torrential downpours quickly resulted in flash flooding, and caused several roadways to become difficult to impossible to pass. As the line moved eastward, it encountered even richer low-level moisture and instability which allowed the thunderstorms to intensify, producing more lightning and severe wind gusts as they advanced from the southeastern South Plains into the Rolling Plains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 17, 11:10 PM CST, 20 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1110 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1108 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
- A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from 6 PM this
evening to 6 AM Monday.
- Widespread moderate to heavy rain will affected the region
late today through early Monday, with flash flooding possible.
- A Wind Advisory is in effect for the southern South and
Rolling Plains from 9 AM to 5 PM Monday.
- A First Freeze is likely for much of the South Plains area
early Wednesday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
A Wind Advisory has been issued for the southern South and Rolling
Plains for tomorrow from 15Z-23Z (9 AM to 5 PM CST) due to the
expectation of sustained, westerly winds increasing to 25-35 mph
with gusts to 45 mph following the passage of the Pacific cold
front. Please read the short term discussion below for additional
information as the forecast remains on track otherwise.
Sincavage
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
A heavy rain event remains on track for tonight as a storm system
tracks pretty quickly to the east-northeast from its position over
Sonora this afternoon to the southeastern tip of New Mexico by 12Z
Monday. Area radars are already showing an increase in echoes aloft
as difluence increases ahead of the upper low, although there is
still a dry sub-cloud layer to overcome. That layer should become
saturated by sunset this evening with an increase in precipitation
reaching the ground late this afternoon. An indication of the
strength of the low and to some degree the presence of instability
aloft it periodic lightning across south-central New Mexico this
afternoon. The heavy rain potential increases later this evening as
the main lift associated with the upper low moves over the forecast
area. Indications still suggest widespread 1"+ amounts with at least
one band of 2"-4" amounts likely setting up across the forecast area
as progged MUCAPE amounts increase to 500-1000 J/kg helping unlock
the very high amounts of precipitable water. The largest amount
instability is likely to be across the southeastern third of the
forecast area where some water loading could lead to some strong to
marginally severe wind gusts overnight despite storms remaining
elevated in nature.
The dry slot will then work northeastward on the east and south
flanks of the upper low as it moves past Childress by noon Monday,
although a fair amount of stratus and shower activity likely wraps
around the north flank of the low and eventually around to its west
side. A tight surface pressure gradient will result in an increase
in wind speeds, in particular once the dry slot works northeastward
with west and eventually northwest winds pushing toward Advisory
criteria, i.e., 30 mph, especially south and west of a Morton to
Aspermont line.
Both low and high temperatures will be a bit tricky, the former due
to rainfall and associated cooling and the latter with amount of
insolation Monday and amount of low level cold advection once winds
veer to northwest. For now NBM looks pretty reasonable and will run
with it for this forecast cycle.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
Westerly breezes will diminish Monday evening while shifting to
the northwest behind a weak front. It will be cooler, but not
cold, overnight as drier air works in from the higher terrain.
Tuesday will be breezy with temps near mid-Nov norms with highs
mainly in the 60s. The passing of another weak shortwave through
the Central Plains will send a cold front through the area Tuesday
night, with a cool surface high about 1030 mb briefly settling in
over West Texas Wednesday morning. This should bring sub-freezing
temps to most of the Caprock and adjacent Rolling Plains early
Wednesday, although the strength of the cold advection has waned
some in the last few model runs. Still, the combination of dry
air, light winds and clear skies should bring most of the area to
near freezing or a bit below, with much of the southwest Texas
Panhandle and northwest South Plains in the 20s.
The surface ridge should shift into Central Texas Wednesday with
southerly flow returning to West Texas by late in day. Wednesday
will likely be the coolest day in the week with highs in the 50s
and low 60s. After another cool start Thursday morning, a warming
trend commences with highs back in the 70s by Saturday along with
dry conditions. There are some indications a cold front could
pass though on Sunday but at this time it looks like not a very
significant one with the storm track displaced well to our north.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
Poor flying conditions will exist through the nighttime hours.
Moderate to heavy rainfall will persist at all terminals through
at least 10Z and will keep CIGs IFR to LIFR while VIS will
fluctuate between IFR and VFR. conditions will likely improve to
VFR after 14Z when winds over 25 knots will be expected.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ021>044.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 5 PM CST Monday for TXZ033>044.
&&
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...51Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 949 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 TXZ021>044-190400- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 949 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the far southern South Plains and the southeastern Rolling Plains until 4 AM CST Monday morning. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be the primary hazard. A Flood Watch is in effect for all of the South Plains, Rolling Plains and southern Texas Panhandle from 6 PM today to 6 AM Monday. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will develop over West Texas this evening and continue into early Monday morning, before shifting to the east by daybreak. Where the heaviest rain falls, flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas is likely. In addition, strong wind gusts, in excess of 50 mph, may accompany the most intense thunderstorms, primarily off the Caprock after midnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A Wind Advisory is in effect between 9 AM and 5 PM CST Monday for the southern South and Rolling Plains. Sustained, westerly winds between 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will develop following the passage of the Pacific cold front late tomorrow morning. A first freeze is likely for much of the South Plains on Wednesday morning.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 68 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:28 UTC.
4 flash flood, 3 thunderstorm wind, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain in a short period of time brought flash flooding in and around the city of Brownfield late on the 17th into the early morning hours of the 18th.
Flash flooding was observed just east of Smyer along Texas State Highway 114 early in the morning of the 18th. Heavy rainfall from a line of thunderstorms produced a torrential amount of rainfall in a short period of time.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Graham measured a severe wind gust of 59 mph.
A slow moving line of thunderstorms produced heavy rainfall over Lubbock County which caused flash flooding over the city of Lubbock. Numerous reports were received of water over area roadways. Additionally, law enforcement reported a vehicle submerged under water under the overpass of 19th street and Interstate-27.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Ralls measured severe wind gusts from 0046 CST through 0048 CST. A peak gust of 64 mph was measured at 0048 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Paducah measured severe wind gusts from 0146 CST through 0156 CST. A peak gust of 65 mph was measured from 0148 CST through 0149 CST.
Runoff from heavy rainfall over the city of Lubbock early in the morning of the 18th made its way into the North Fork Double Mountain Fork Brazos River beginning on the east side of the city of Lubbock. This water eventually moved downstream into Buffalo Springs Lake. The emergency manager for Buffalo Springs Lake reported two feet of water flowing over Farm to Market Road 835 west of the lake. The emergency manager reported that the road had to be closed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1219112, 1219113, 1219105, 1219115, 1219106, 1219108, 1219107, 1219117.