Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 15 to 16, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
314 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level trough and
associated low over the Baja Peninsula this afternoon. This trough
is expected to track into the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow
afternoon. Ahead of the upper level trough, perturbations in the
flow aloft will help with thunderstorm development over the region
this afternoon and evening. As the upper level trough tracks into
the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow, a better source of lift
will eject over the area as the exit region of a 110kt 250mb jet
clips the southern portion of the FA.

Southerly winds across most of the FA will help influence dewpoints
in the 50s and 60s this afternoon with some locations in the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle already observing dewpoint temperatures
in the upper 50s to low 60s. As of 2 PM CDT, the frontal boundary
extends along a line from Friona to Happy up to Clarendon. This
feature will serve as a source of lift this afternoon for
thunderstorms as it tracks southward through the FA this afternoon
and evening. Latest model guidance depicts thunderstorms developing
along the frontal boundary this afternoon, with some thunderstorms
developing across the very weak dry-line across our western most
counties. Lack of moisture near the surface and aloft will support
high based convection this afternoon given inverted-v profile
soundings and DCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg, gusty and erratic winds
up to 70 mph will be the main hazard with thunderstorms. Although
long hodographs have been observed, lack of CAPE will favor more
organized multicell clusters with supercell potential limited.

Thunderstorms are expected through the overnight hours as the FROPA
provides efficient lift for storms to develop. Although the severe
threat begins to diminish overnight, localized flooding will remain
possible, especially with stronger storms as some training is
possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue
Thursday as the upper level trough and associated low move over
the northern Texas Panhandle. As this feature moves closer into
the region, better moisture will be found over the region with
dewpoint temperatures climbing into the 50s-60s and PWATs above
the 90th percentile. Therefore, main threats with thunderstorms
tomorrow will be locally heavy rainfall that may lead to localized
flooding across low-lying and poor drainage areas. An isolated
supercell cannot be ruled out, especially across the southern
South Plains and Rolling Plains where the better instability
resides. Gusty winds up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size may
be possible, especially within larger storm cores.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Rain will continue to shift east of the forecast area early Friday
morning as the center of the upper-level low moves into Oklahoma
placing us in an area of subsidence aloft. With clearing skies,
temperatures will warm back into the upper 70s to lower 80s on
Friday. Upper-level ridging will begin to expand over the forecast
area Saturday and remain overhead through early next week. This
will lead to increasing temperatures through early next week with
high temperatures mostly in the 90s on Saturday and Sunday with
upper 90s and lower 100s on Monday. A shortwave will lower heights
over the area slightly on Tuesday dropping high temperatures back
into the 90s however with limited moisture, it appears that the
forecast area will remain dry. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon into the
early evening hours at or near all three TAF sites. KCDS will have
the best chance for TS this evening, with KPVW a close second, and
low confidence at KLBB. Thunderstorms will have the potential of
producing gusty and erratic winds and locally heavy rainfall which
may lead to reduced visibilities. Thunderstorms will exit KLBB
and KPVW this evening with lingering TS possible at KCDS through
the early morning hours. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will
begin to calm and shift out of the north as a front moves
southward through the region.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1136 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

TXZ021>044-161645-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1136 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the far southern Texas
Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains this afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to golfball
size will be the primary hazards with storms. Stronger storms may
lead to locally heavy rainfall and flooding across low-lying and poor
drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area on Thursday,
with a potential for severe weather focused on the central and
southern Rolling Plains. Localized heavy rainfall/flooding and high
winds will be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.