An area of low pressure over western North Carolina tied to an upper-level trough brought scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain during the afternoon and evening hours. Isolated damaging winds and hail were reported in Stanly and Sampson Counties.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
An area of low pressure over western North Carolina tied to an upper-level trough brought scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain during the afternoon and evening hours. Isolated damaging winds and hail were reported in Stanly and Sampson Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 1:30 PM EST, 1 hour earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 230 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the region tonight, followed by weak high pressure on Thursday. A storm system will approach from the southwest Friday and possibly linger into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... Afternoon surface analysis reveals the surface frontal boundary is likely draped just north of Stanly County and extends ESE to near Harnett/Lee. Low stratus has persisted north of this boundary, though there are breaks in the overcast across the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. Upstream convection has already started to develop over the NC mountains tied to the upstream shortwave tied to the mid-level trough over the lower OH valley. These storms upstream will continue to track ESE across the western/southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain. The storms south of the boundary will tap into 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE, along with 40-45 kts of deep-layer shear. The main severe risk and corresponding highest storm chances are favored over the southern Piedmont, Sandhills to Southern Coastal Plain, where straight hodographs will largely favor damaging winds and large hail. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until at least 8 PM this evening over these areas. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled along the stalled frontal zone. Lastly, we will need to monitor for a flash flood threat, given high PW's and antecedent saturated soils. This would largely be favored in low-lying or poor drainage areas, as well as urban areas. The severe threat should diminish after 8 PM, though lingering showers and isolated storms are still possible over the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain as another low-level frontal zone out of VA slides SW and a shortwave tied to the trough swings southeastward from SW VA. Convection should die out after midnight, with lows in the mid 50s in the NE to low 60s in the SW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Wednesday... A weak surface high will be across North Carolina Thursday into Friday. It appears that there could be some differential heating along the Appalachian mountains Thursday afternoon, and have maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Triad. The rest of the region should remain dry. Skies should be mostly clear Thursday night before clouds increase in advance of the next approaching system. While most locations will have a chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon, it appears that the bulk of the rain should hold off until Friday evening in the Triad and after midnight elsewhere. Both highs and lows should be slightly below normal on Thursday then warm a few degrees on Friday as flow switches from northerly to southerly. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 PM Wednesday... Saturday and Sunday: Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge along/off the East Coast will shift east as a potent s/w progresses generally eastward through the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic this weekend. There are still some fairly significant differences between the medium range model solutions wrt the timing and character of the s/w. The GFS solution shows a closed low over the mid-MS Valley early Sat, while the ECMWF has an open trough over the OH/TN Valley. Consequently, the ECMWF is quicker to bring the s/w through the region (Sat night) than the GFS (Sun). Also, the GFS low lingers off the NC coast Sun night through Mon night, while the EC s/w lifts NE out over the Atlantic. This will subsequently impact when the sub- tropical ridge over the MS Valley is able to shift eastward. It follows that the surface pattern is similarly variable between the model solutions. Generally expect a warm front to lift newd through the area early Sat, while a low (NAM and ECMWF) may also track enewd through central NC Sat aft/eve. The GFS shows more of a weak surface wave lifting through. In the GFS, the more potent surface low comes through on Sun, while in the EC high pressure over the Northeast is already ridging into NC. Either way, expect a low offshore Sunday night, with cool high pressure ridging into NC on the back side of it. Highs will generally range from low 70s to low 80s, while lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sat night could decrease to mid 50s/low 60s for Sun night. Off the GFS forecast soundings: PWATS will be in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range from Sat morning through at least Sun afternoon, possibly longer in the east. MUCAPE ranging from 200 J/Kg to 500 J/Kg, with effective shear peaking around 40 kts Sat aft/eve. While there is not a day 4 area of interest from the SPC, the discussion for Saturday does mention some severe potential with the s/w, mainly well to the south over GA/FL, but given the model differences there is still a high degree of uncertainty. For Sun, the MUCAPE is higher, generally around 1000 J/Kg, while effective shear may be more in the 30-40 kt range. So, if the GFS solution comes to fruition, there could be continued potential for storms again on Sunday. Monday onward: As the upper low/trough continues to drift offshore and over the Atlantic, the sub-topical ridge will gradually shift eastward, ridging through the mid-Atlantic through Tue night. A couple of shortwaves will track eastward through the Great Lakes from late Mon night through Wed, largely staying north of the area. However the second, stronger s/w could clip central NC Wed/Wed night, resulting in the next potential for showers/storms across the area. Expect temperatures to moderate through mid-week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 135 PM Wednesday... A mixture of IFR/MVFR conditions will largely start the TAF period, lifting to MVFR/VFR this afternoon and evening. Showers and storms have begun to develop over the NC mountains along a frontal zone and area of low pressure. The boundary lies just south of GSO/INT/RDU/RWI. As such, the highest confidence of storms into the evening will be at FAY, given they are in the warm sector. While timing is not in agreement in the guidance, we went with an earlier start time, roughly 20Z to 01Z given upstream development as of this issuance, though storms could be slightly later. The boundary will be close enough to GSO/INT that a TEMPO group for TSRA was warranted, but we left out any storm mention at RDU/RWI given low confidence on how far north the boundary will get. Storms may need to be introduced with a later update, however. Isolated storms may linger/develop at RDU/RWI after 00Z ahead of a southward moving boundary. Then, MVFR/VFR CIGs should lower to IFR/MVFR overnight, before lifting to MVFR/VFR by midday Thu. There could be some fog development overnight, but confidence was too low to include at this time. Outlook: Sub-VFR stratus or fog early Thu should lift to VFR Thu aftn. Showers and sub-VFR conditions will return late Friday into Sunday, with largely dry conditions returning sometime Mon. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Kren NEAR TERM...Kren SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Kren
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 119 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-078-161200- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Wayne- 119 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall may produce minor flooding mainly in urban and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Another storm system may bring the threat of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall late Friday into Saturday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089-161200- Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke- Cumberland-Sampson- 119 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Another storm system may bring the threat of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall late Friday into Saturday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
NCZ073-074-083-084-151930-
Stanly NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Montgomery NC-
243 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ANSON...SOUTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN RICHMOND AND SOUTHEASTERN STANLY COUNTIES
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 242 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Midland, or 13 miles southwest of Albemarle, moving
east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ansonville, Norwood, Oakboro, Mount Gilead, Uwharrie Haven,
Covington, Pekin, Lake Tillery, and Blewett Falls Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3530 8038 3531 7981 3497 7992 3509 8029
3520 8028 3520 8030 3518 8031 3517 8034
3517 8035 3518 8037 3516 8041 3517 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 284DEG 17KT 3520 8032
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
GreenThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 154 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:29 UTC.
3 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported down, resulting in power lines down near the intersection of Fork Rd and highway 731.
Quarter inch hail was reported near the town of McDaniels.
Quarter size hail was reported near Bonnetsville, just west of Clinton, near the intersection of North Carolina highway 24 and Bass Lake Rd.
Quarter size hail was reported near the intersection of Tyndall Grove Rd and Garland highway near the town of Butlers Crossroads.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1173313, 1173310, 1173311, 1173312.