Scattered showers and storms formed to our west/southwest during the afternoon of the 27th and moved east through North and Central Texas over the rest of the evening. One storm in Parker County produced quarter sized hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Scattered showers and storms formed to our west/southwest during the afternoon of the 27th and moved east through North and Central Texas over the rest of the evening. One storm in Parker County produced quarter sized hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 27, 2:40 PM CST, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 340 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 122 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ /Rest of Today Through Thursday/ Another cool day has unfolded across North and Central Texas with highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s. A few locations across our southwestern counties may hit the 70 degree mark where the best southerly flow resides. This is out ahead of a surface low that is currently moving across the Hill Country where the development of a growing cumulus field can be seen on satellite. This feature will be the main driving force for the development of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening hours. The latest hi-res guidance has trended the development of these storms to the southwest, remaining mostly confined to portions of Central Texas. There is a low chance for these to skirt through portions of the Metroplex. While the environment is not overly favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms, the potential is not zero. Marginal instability along with steep mid-level lapse rates and decent mid- level moisture ahead of a surface low will lead to high base/low topped thunderstorms that may organize just enough to have a hail and damaging wind threat associated with them. The best window of opportunity will be between 4 PM to 10 PM across Central Texas. These storms will likely weaken just after sunset as daytime heating subsides and the surface low pushes east. Temperatures overnight will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s across North and Central Texas, with highs tomorrow slightly warmer in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s. This is a result of winds becoming southerly across the region once again. Reeves && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Night Onward/ A mild end to the work week is expected Friday with highs in the mid and upper 70s. Surface high pressure will have shifted to the Southeast, with breezy south winds gusting mostly between 20-30 mph. The warming trend will continue into the weekend with temperatures primarily topping out in the 80s each afternoon through Monday as ridging remains centered along the Plains. A pattern shift will then occur early next week, as an upper trough drops south across the Western CONUS. Discrepancies among guidance in the timing of the trough and its track/interaction with a northern stream trough will impact where the surface low develops across the Southern/Central Plains. Showers and storms return to the forecast starting Sunday night, but the main chances will be later in the day Monday with a dryline likely positioned to the west and the arrival of a cold front Monday night. Ample moisture should be in place in advance of this next system as onshore flow over the weekend will bring widespread 60+ dewpoints. Looking Ahead to the Eclipse: We're now 12 days out from the Total Solar Eclipse. Remember, these ensembles are under dispersed, so the probabilities are not truly calibrated odds. And while still outside of the official forecast period, here's the latest: -- GEFS/GEPS ensembles have trended slightly more pessimistic compared to yesterday, but only by about a ~10 percent change in mean cloud cover (meaning 30-50% of these members depict less than 25 percent of cloud cover). 30% of these members now show greater than 80% mean cloud cover. -- Among all of the Euro, Canadian, and GFS ensemble members, about 1 in 4 show a notable signal for precipitation (at least 0.1") across North and Central Texas. All other members show little or no precipitation with the majority of guidance depicting precip off to the east, similar to yesterday. -- Current guidance is fairly similar to climatology in terms of the cloud forecast still. We will closely monitor the trends over the next 3-5 days, as this will be when the skill of model guidance will increasingly outweigh the skill of climatology. As we start seeing trends either towards being more pessimistic or more optimistic than climatology, that's when we'll be better able to hone in on what one could expect for Monday's Eclipse conditions. Gordon && .AVIATION... /Issued 122 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ /18z TAFs/ Concerns...Low chance (~5%) for isolated storms across the D10. VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon and into the evening hours for all TAF sites. Winds are easterly across the region, becoming more northeasterly as we move through the overnight hours. The only major change was the removal of VCTS from the D10 TAFs as the latest hi-res guidance has trended the development of thunderstorms further to the southwest. That being said, there is a low chance for an isolated storm or two to push through portions of the D10 later this evening, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Reeves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 45 71 54 77 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 Waco 44 73 54 76 59 / 30 0 0 0 0 Paris 39 68 49 75 57 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 40 70 51 76 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 41 70 52 75 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 45 71 54 77 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 Terrell 42 70 52 75 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 45 72 54 78 60 / 20 0 0 0 0 Temple 45 74 54 78 59 / 30 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 41 72 52 78 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 332 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281300- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 332 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along and west of Highway 281 around mid afternoon, then move southeast by nightfall, especially from the DFW Metro into Central Texas. Primary hazards include large hail and localized damaging winds between 60 and 70 mph. Storms are expected to weaken and move southeast through eastern Central Texas by mid-late evening, then exiting this area by or shortly after midnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances return Sunday night and Monday as a strong cold front moves through the area. Low storm chances will continue primarily east of Interstate 35 on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon and evening for western North Texas into much of Central Texas.
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 69 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:20 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Social media picture of 1 inch hail in Millsap. Spotter reported that the hail was soft and not very dense.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1167721.