Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, March 27 to 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
142 PM PDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Active weather will begins later tonight as the next
weather disturbance and cold front move into the region. A mix of
rain, snow and graupel along with gusty winds are expected much of
Thursday across central and northern Nevada. Another low pressure
system is expected to pivot from just off the California Coast
through the Desert Southwest Friday through Sunday night bringing
more precipitation to the area for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Mainly mid to high
level clouds are moving through the forecast area this afternoon.
The ridge axis has already moved east and the next storm system is
encroaching upon the Pacific Northwest states. Radar is showing
some echoes moving over Humboldt county at this time but surface
dewpoints are in the 20s and these are probably mid-level clouds.
Precipitation is expected to start later tonight into tomorrow
morning across north-central and central Nevada. Snow levels are
expected to remain at or above 6000 feet during the overnight but
will begin to lower later tomorrow morning as a cold front pushes
across the forecast area. Overnight lows will be in the 30s but
falling after the frontal passage.

On Thursday and Thursday night, models are showing the upper level
low pressure system maintaining a position just west of Washington
and Oregon. Southwest flow will bring moisture into the area with
isolated to scattered rain and snow showers continuing. Snow
levels over much of the area will be around 4500 to 5000 feet
though locations like White Pine county will be around 6000 feet
and above. This will help to limit snow accumulations in the
valleys north with up to a half inch possible. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible in portions of White Pine county
during Thursday morning and afternoon. West winds will be breezy
with gusts to 35 mph. High temperatures will be in the 40s to low
50s. Model simulations are showing the low pressure system
remaining across the Pacific Northwest states Thursday night. A
brief break in the shower activity is expected though clouds are
expected to hang around the area. Overnight lows will be in the
20s and 30s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday

Deep upper low positioned along the coast of the PacNW digs
further south Friday with moist southwesterly flow directed into
Nevada. Lingering isolated snow showers expected Friday morning
before a more consistent broad band of precipitation forms in the
evening along a warm front situated west to east across the
forecast area. Precip type generally valley rain and mountain snow
with the valleys trending to a rain/snow mix and snow overnight.
Valley snow totals of less than an inch expected. Pass routes to
see an inch or two of accumulation. Liquid equivalents generally
around 0.25” for the valleys, little to no accumulation within
Humboldt County expected. Breezy southerly winds during the day
Friday with the strongest gusts of 25 to 30 mph focused across
central Nevada.

Upper low along the California coast continues to provide active
weather before weakening and forming a deep open long wave trof
while moving inland Sunday. Valley rain Saturday with precip type
again transitioning to rain/snow mix and snow Saturday night.
Light valley snow accumulations expected Saturday night and thru
Sunday with an inch or two possible. Several inches to a foot
indicated for the mountains. Breezy and gusty winds also persist.

Mostly dry Monday as high pressure under a robust yet highly
tilted upper ridge builds over Nevada. Fairer weather into
Wednesday although afternoon breezes look to continue. Next bout
of active weather begins in the Wednesday night time frame as a
cold front begins to move into the forecast area from the
northwest.

Daytime high temperatures Friday will be in the low 40s to low
50s with overnight lows in the 20s. No appreciable warming or
cooling trends until Monday when temperatures begin warming in
accordance with building high pressure and clearer skies. Daytime
highs indicated to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s by Wednesday with
overnight lows in the low 20s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...Rain showers return to Nevada tonight as a
cold front progresses thru the region from the northwest. VCSH
forecast at KWMC and KBAM at 02Z to 03Z although the main push of
-SHRA isn't expected until 06Z to 07Z with showers spreading
 southeast thru the morning. VFR to be the primary flight
 conditions although MVFR will be possible under lowered CIGs and
 VIS in conjunction with showers. Showers come to an end along
 with decreasing cloud cover post frontal from northwest to
 southeast throughout the day Thursday. Breezy winds also present
 with gusts 20KTS to 30KTS.

KBAM remains AMD NOT SKED due to comms outage

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

86/92/92