Tornado and Hail in Texas, March 14 to 15, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
745 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Start of the wetter and cooler period begins to tonight and
continues into Friday.

Dryline has eased into the eastern portions of West Central Texas
this afternoon roughly along a Coleman to Menard line, although
better moisture is really limited to the eastern Heartland across
Brownwood and San Saba. Wind fields are weak and not expecting
a lot more push this afternoon on the dryline. Meanwhile, cold
front has sagged to an Abilene to Big Lake line.

Latest CAMs suggest convection this afternoon may be limited to
just east of the CWA, although they do show at least some
scattered convection developing a little farther to the west this
evening as the dryline begins to retreat and the low level
moisture return reaches the cold front. Have brought back some
small POPs back into the Heartland this evening to account for
this. Better rain chances areawide will come after midnight as the
front makes better progress to the south and moves across the rest
of West Central Texas. Moisture overrunning the boundary will
help develop scattered to numerous showers and storms across the
south half of the area by sunrise, and then spreading north across
the rest of the area as a shortwave lifts north with it.

After the 80s this afternoon, much cooler tonight and Friday as
north winds become gusty. Undercut guidance highs a few degrees on
Friday with the clouds and rain across the area. Generally, lows
in the 40s and 50s tonight, and highs only in the 60s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A well developed area of low pressure aloft will remain centered
across Arizona over the weekend and early next week. As this system
sits in place, both the GFS and ECMWF show on and off chances for
rain given the embedded disturbances within the flow aloft. Rainfall
totals look to be higher the further south and east you go. Areas
across I-10 may see around 0.5" to 1.5", and for the Big Country we
may see totals in the 0.25" to 0.75" range. Isolated pockets of
heavier rain are possible. The Weather Prediction Center did include
the I-10 corridor in their Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Day 2,
which will go through Saturday morning.

Regarding the chances for severe weather, the Storm Prediction
Center has Day 2 in a Marginal Risk for severe weather through
Saturday morning across areas near I-10 east of Sonora. This will
include a chance for large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise,
chances look to be low severe weather wise through the remainder of
the weekend and early next week. Otherwise, the forecast will
largely call for cooler and wetter conditions across the region
through the end of the long term portion of the forecast. Confidence

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Cold front has shifted winds to more of a northerly flow and will
begin to pick up overnight wit some gusts up to 25 knots. VFR
conditions will persist through this evening with the exception
of MVFR conditions developing under some showers and thunderstorms
that do develop through tonight. MVFR conditions for showers and
lower ceilings will spread across all terminals tonight through
the morning hours Friday. Better chance of showers and storms will
occur late tonight and continue into Friday as moisture rides up
and over the cold front. VFR ceilings will slowly begin to return
to most terminals by mid-day Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     51  60  47  59 /  30  70  20  80
San Angelo  53  62  50  61 /  60  70  40  80
Junction    61  69  53  66 /  60  80  30  80
Brownwood   56  62  50  61 /  60  80  30  80
Sweetwater  47  57  47  56 /  20  80  20  80
Ozona       56  64  52  64 /  50  70  50  80
Brady       57  63  53  61 /  60  80  30  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...TP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
210 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-151915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
210 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this evening across portions of the
Heartland, with a few of the storms becoming strong and perhaps
producing some small hail. Storms are expected to become more
widespread across the area after midnight tonight. Although severe
storms are not expected overnight, dangerous lightning, brief
locally heavy rainfall, and perhaps some small hail will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday into the weekend
across the area. Again, severe storms are not expected. However,
gusty winds, small hail, brief heavy rainfall, and dangerous
lightning will be possible with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1101 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

TXZ066-150445-
Runnels TX-
1101 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUNNELS COUNTY
THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...

At 1100 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ballinger, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ballinger, Hatchel, and Benoit.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in San Angelo.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 10000 3174 10004 3192 9990 3167 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 230DEG 8KT 3172 9995

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TP