Damaging Wind in Texas, June 1, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1159 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The latest severe weather/mesoanalysis analysis shows a dryline
well to our west over the Trans Pecos to a weak surface low near
Fort Stockton and a stationary front near the I-20 corridor form
the Permain Basin eastward across the Big Country. To the south of
the front across the southern 2/3 of the area, there is moderate
to strong instability in place, most unstable across the Northern
Edwards Plateau and effective shear bulk shear values of 35 to 45
knots over the southern half of the area.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly south of I-20 late this
afternoon and evening. Any storm that does develop will rapidly become
severe due to strong/locally extreme instability and good deep layer
shear. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.
Otherwise, going with low chance Pops for tonight, mainly during the
evening. For Saturday, looks mainly dry for much of the day. However,
storms will fire to our west along the dryline during the afternoon. A
few storms will probably move into our western counties by late
afternoon with an isolated severe storm possible. Expect warm and
humid conditions with highs Saturday in the 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A familiar pattern for this time of year will set up across West
Central Texas this weekend and into early next week, with weak
ridging and nearly zonal flow aloft with a warmer and unstable
airmass building near the surface. However, models are showing
this setup to be slightly weaker than what we have seen this past
week so far. We're generally expecting some diurnal showers and
isolated thunderstorms lingering into Saturday evening through
Monday, before a drier and even warmer airmass takes over and
begins to cook parts of West Central Texas under triple digit
high temperatures again. Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen
across the area, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper
90s to 106 range on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. A complex of
storms is moving southeast out of Lubbock towards our area. Have
included a TS group for KABI with VCTS for KSJT as a gradual but
slow weakening trend is expected as this complex progresses. MVFR
to IFR ceilings are expected to build north during the early
morning hours, mainly impacting our southern sites. Confidence in
this stratus building all the way to KSJT is medium-low at this
time but a brief MVFR group may need to be added with the next
update. Ceilings will lift back to VFR by the late morning with
wind gusts picking up out of the southeast during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     84  67  88  69 /  50  20  10  20
San Angelo  87  69  93  69 /  30  20  10  20
Junction    91  70  94  71 /  30  20  10  20
Brownwood   81  67  87  69 /  50  20  10  20
Sweetwater  82  67  89  69 /  60  20  10  30
Ozona       90  70  91  69 /  20  10  10  30
Brady       82  68  86  69 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
147 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-011900-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
147 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible across much of
West Central Texas mainly this afternoon and evening. Some of
these storms will be strong and a few may strengthen to severe
levels. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, in
addition to dangerous lightning and brief locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day through the
weekend. Some of these storms will be strong and may reach severe
levels, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
102 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

TXZ049-054-098-113-114-127-010700-
Haskell TX-Fisher TX-Shackelford TX-Nolan TX-Jones TX-Taylor TX-
102 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HASKELL...JONES...NORTHERN
NOLAN...FISHER...NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND NORTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM CDT...

At 100 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Guthrie to 6 miles north of Peacock to 10
miles northwest of Hobbs. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sweetwater, Haskell, Stamford, Anson, Hamlin, Roscoe, Merkel, Rotan,
Roby, Rule, Hawley, Lueders, Trent, Rochester, Weinert, O'Brien,
Noodle, Hobbs, Paint Creek, and Longworth.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 229 and 269.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3299 9949 3253 9962 3238 10066 3296 10066
      3296 9999 3339 9999 3340 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 289DEG 42KT 3369 10033 3327 10043 3289 10072

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
158 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

TXZ049-098-099-113-114-127-128-010800-
Haskell TX-Throckmorton TX-Fisher TX-Shackelford TX-Callahan TX-
Jones TX-Taylor TX-
158 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HASKELL...NORTHWESTERN
CALLAHAN...JONES...EASTERN FISHER...NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR...WESTERN
SHACKELFORD AND WESTERN THROCKMORTON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM CDT...

At 157 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of Benjamin to near Sagerton to
near Longworth. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Haskell, Stamford, Anson, Hamlin, Albany, Tye, Roby, Rule,
Hawley, Lueders, Rochester, Weinert, O'Brien, Irby, Sylvester,
Noodle, Mccaulley, Paint Creek, and Avoca.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 275 and 293.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 9928 3239 9966 3252 10014 3268 10054
      3296 10034 3296 9999 3340 9999 3340 9925
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 293DEG 34KT 3354 9991 3301 9995 3270 10033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KB