Tornado and Flash Flooding in Texas, June 1 to 3, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

An overnight MCS is quickly decaying with leading edge of the cold
pool moving through the Metroplex and Western Central Texas at
this time. Only a narrow band of light rain is observed north of
I-20 where the airmass has stabilized, while a few storms are
ongoing across Central Texas in the more unstable air. The storms
over Central Texas should also weaken as they become outflow
dominate and dislodge from the main cold pool after sunrise.

A MCV has developed along the northern periphery of the MCS near
Vernon that will move east today. This should help trigger storms
later this today across North Texas. When and where storms develop
will largely depend on how quick the convective debris from this
morning's MCS clear out. If insolation ramps up fast enough, we
could see storms develop late this morning. More than likely, we
should see storms start to develop early this afternoon generally
along and east of the I-35 corridor. The remnant surface boundary
from this morning's MCS will also serve as a focused source of
ascent, triggering additional storms over parts of North and
Central Texas this afternoon. We're pretty confident that *some*
storms will develop today, but the low PoPs (20-30%) in our
forecast are due to our lack of confidence regarding where the
storms will develop. After storms develop, they should move
southeast, with additional storms developing along outflow
boundaries.

The parameter space for severe weather isn't off the charts like
it was for much of last week, but there is still sufficient deep-
layer shear and instability to support a low-end severe wind and
hail risk. After the afternoon convection dissipates after sunset,
we'll have to shift our attention west to another MCS that should
move into western North Texas early Sunday morning.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

North and Central Texas will lie beneath the northern flank of a
mid level ridge (centered over Mexico) at the start of the period.
The resulting flow aloft will create a couple opportunities for
thunderstorms to start next week. The first of which will be late
Sunday as the ridge is somewhat compromised by a shortwave trough
passing through the Plains. An active afternoon and evening of
convection is expected from the Dakotas southward into the
Southern Plains, with North and Central Texas sitting on the
southern edge. It is likely that the dryline will provide a focus
for convective initiation over Northwest Texas Sunday afternoon,
with activity propagating east-southeast through our forecast area
Sunday evening. Storms will encounter a strengthening cap the
farther east they get, which should cause weakening as they move
through and east of the I-35 corridor. Until they weaken, a
damaging wind threat may exist primarily west of I-35.

A second shortwave will generate another round of storms Monday
afternoon and evening. The latest guidance places the higher
thunderstorm probabilities either along the Red River where the
stronger ascent will reside, or across Central Texas within an
axis of exceptionally high instability. Storms may end up being
isolated, but model soundings support supercellular structure
with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds with
any storm which may develop.

A slight pattern shift will occur on Tuesday as the ridge expands
north, bringing a return to northwest flow aloft. A deepening
upper trough across the Midwest and Ohio Valley will amplify the
pattern for the mid to late week period. It looks at this time
like the ridge will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, shutting off
our rain chances for a day or two while providing our warmest
weather of the week. The north to northwest flow will eventually
usher in another weak cold front, which will likely cross the Red
River on Thursday and stall somewhere across North or Central
Texas. This boundary and additional disturbances in the flow aloft
will bring more chances for rain and storms late next week into
the following weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

A gust front is moving through D10 at this time, bringing gusty
west winds for the next hour or two. The winds should go light
and variable before prevailing out of the south by mid morning.

A stalled boundary (caused by the morning gust front) and a weak
mid-level disturbance should help develop isolated to scattered
thunderstorms over North and Central Texas this afternoon. There
is a chance the storms develop later in the day and remain east of
the D10 terminals, but we have opted to leave VCTS in the D10 TAFs
for now. Today's storms will have a propensity to produce gusty
and erratic winds and strong outflow boundaries, so expect rapid
wind shifts if storms develop near any terminal.

Most storms should move east late in the afternoon and dissipate
after sunset.

Bonnette

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  74  89  75  90 /  30  20  30  30  20
Waco                89  74  88  74  90 /  20  10  30  20  20
Paris               86  69  88  71  86 /  30  10  30  20  40
Denton              87  72  88  73  90 /  30  20  30  30  20
McKinney            87  72  87  73  88 /  30  20  30  30  30
Dallas              89  74  89  74  90 /  30  20  30  30  30
Terrell             88  72  87  73  88 /  30  10  30  20  30
Corsicana           88  74  89  75  90 /  30  10  30  20  20
Temple              89  75  88  75  90 /  20  10  30  20  10
Mineral Wells       88  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1145 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1145 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly north of I-20 and east of
I-35 through this afternoon. A storm or two may be strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance of storms Sunday and Monday, mainly in the late
afternoon and evening. Additional thunderstorm chances will arrive
late Thursday with a weak cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.