Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, August 23, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
219 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and early evening, as a weak disturbance rotates around the
periphery of the upper level ridge. There remains some uncertainty
on the extent of coverage this afternoon, which upper level
ridging working to suppress convection. Still, enough heating
(temperatures are already at or above 100 degrees) to should allow
for the development of at least isolated thunderstorms later this
afternoon and into the evening, similar to yesterday. Most of the
activity should dissipate by mid to late evening. Warm
temperatures are forecast overnight, with lows in the mid 70s to
near 80.

Another hot day is expected on Saturday, although a few degrees
less hot than what is forecast today. Still, highs across the Big
Country should top out in the 103 to 105 degree range, with heat
index values in the 105 to 109 range. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for the Big Country from 1 PM Saturday through 8 PM.
Elsewhere, expect highs in the upper 90s to near 103.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

No significant changes for the long term forecast. By Sunday, the
upper level ridge currently centered over our northern counties
is expected to be north of the area near southwestern Missouri.
From Monday through late next week, this ridge will drift east
into the southeastern states. South of this ridge, a weak easterly
wave is still expected to move west into Texas by Monday. Models
are in fairly good agreement with where the wave hits Texas. After
that, the GFS brings the low farther northward into west central
Texas, while the ECMWF takes the low on a more southern track.
Although the GFS would be more favorable for precipitation
chances in our area, there is at least a 20% chance for showers
and thunderstorms generally south of I-20 from Tuesday through the
end of the week.

A weak frontal boundary may approach the area late in the week
providing a more organized chance for precipitation, and this will
warrant keeping an eye on in upcoming forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Expect generally VFR conditions to prevail through the next 24
hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop
across the area late this afternoon and evening. Uncertainty
continues on the exact placement of any of these storms, so for
now have continued a mention of VCTS at all sites. The main
concern with any storms that develop will be strong, gusty winds.
Gusty south to southeast winds will decrease below 10 knots this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78 102  76  99 /  20  10   0   0
San Angelo  78 102  74  99 /  10  10   0   0
Junction    74  98  71  96 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   75  99  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
Sweetwater  80 104  77 100 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       75  97  72  94 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       75  97  72  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Callahan-
Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for Fisher-Haskell-
Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-
Concho-Irion-Mason-McCulloch-Runnels-San Saba-Sterling-Tom Green.

&&

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...Daniels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
241 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-241945-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
241 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An excessive Heat warning is in effect from 1 PM to 9 PM for the
Big Country, with a Heat advisory in the Concho Valley, Heartland
and Mason county.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. The main hazard will be strong, possibly
damaging downburst winds.

Fire weather conditions will be elevated this afternoon and
evening, as grasses have dried out due to the very hot
temperatures and lack of rainfall. Avoid outside activities that
may produce a as spark.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue Saturday and
Sunday, mainly during the afternoon hours. Grasses have dried out
due to the very hot temperatures and lack of rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
543 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

TXZ113-114-127-128-232315-
Shackelford TX-Callahan TX-Jones TX-Taylor TX-
543 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CALLAHAN...
SOUTHEASTERN JONES...NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Fort Phantom Hill, or near Nugent. This thunderstorm is
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Abilene, Clyde, Hawley, Hamby, Impact, Lake Fort Phantom
Hill, and Us-283 Near The Callahan-Shackelford County Line.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 286 and 302.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 9952 3258 9987 3274 9978 3254 9935
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 207DEG 1KT 3261 9969

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PO