Flash Flooding and Hail in Texas, April 26, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
651 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The weather story and hazard outlooks remain largely unchanged from
recent forecasts as of this writing. As a series of upper level lows
eject east from the Intermountain West and veer along a
northeasterly track up the Great Plains and towards the Great Lakes,
this persistent unsettled pattern will result in several days worth
of showers and storms bringing rainfall to much of the ArkLaTex, and
some chances of severe weather, particularly to our northwestern
half.

Showers have already begun to move into our southeastern Oklahoma
zones as of the 08Z hour, and will increase in coverage and
intensity while gradually trekking south and east after daybreak
today. Showers and storms will impact all but the southeasternmost
reaches of the ArkLaTex through this afternoon, receding in
coverage back to the north of the I-30 corridor overnight into
Saturday.

The severe weather outlook today remains much the same as previous
iterations, with a Slight Risk covering our northwestern zones from
Tyler up to Texarkana and along I-30, extending just far enough
south to clip the northwestern corner of Louisiana. The chief modes
of severe weather expected will be damaging wind and especially
large hail, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out entirely.
Simultaneously, these same zones are included in a slight risk of
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding, particularly in areas
of training torrential rainfall. 1-2 inches of accumulation today
look easily possible, particularly north of I-30.

Today's highs will range from the middle 70s northwest to middle 80s
southeast, followed by a night of lows in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees, and a warmer Saturday as more sites reach the mid to upper
80s.

Saturday continues to look like the "in-between" day of this
stretch, where we will not see a defined line of storms associated
with one of the aforementioned lows move into the region.
Nevertheless, conditions will remain ripe for renewed showers and
storms across the northern half of the Four State Region through the
course of the day, accompanied by a Marginal Risk for severe weather
and a sliver of Slight Risk on our northwestern corner, accompanied
by a similar distribution of ERO risks. All modes of severe weather
will again be possible, but at reduced confidence compared to Friday
and Sunday.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

During the day Saturday and into Saturday night, the second of the
upper level lows will begin to make its northeastward journey up the
Plains, swinging its frontal boundary and attendant convection into
the ArkLaTex. There is little in the way of a defined break between
Saturday's showers and storms and Sunday's convection, thus it
remains to be seen how worked over the environment may be ahead of
the arrival of Sunday's storms. That being said, the outlook
continues to highlight a sizable swath encompassing the northwestern
two-thirds of the region in a Slight Risk for Sunday into Sunday
night. All modes of severe weather are being considered likely, with
emphasis once again on damaging winds and large hail.

The third straight day of severe weather impacts will indeed also be
the third straight day of flash flooding impacts. By the time all is
said and done, storm total accumulations look to range from 1-2
inches in north central Louisiana to as high as 4+ inches in extreme
southeast Oklahoma. Given the recent substantial flooding event
across the region, and with many area waterways still quite full, a
return to flood stages cloud be quickly achieved, and this potential
hazard necessitates as much vigilance as the severe threat.

After the upper level low departs and synoptic flow becomes more
zonal, conditions will remain unsettled into next week, as southerly
flow funnels continued moisture and showers and storms remain
possible through the end of this extended forecast period.
Temperatures will be mitigated somewhat by the ongoing rainfall but
will remain warm in the low to mid 80s throughout, with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR cigs are widespread this morning, except for some breaks
noted over portions of NCntrl LA/SCntrl AR. However, these should
fill in by mid-morning, before eventually lifting/becoming VFR by
midday/early afternoon. A line of convection which has developed
early this morning over Cntrl/Ern OK will continue to lift ENE
through mid-morning while gradually weakening, although some
Swd backbuilding will be possible over ECntrl TX and could affect
the TYR/GGG terminals by midday and through the afternoon. Have
maintained VCTS for the afternoon here, as well as TXK as this
convection should continue to develop farther ENE through the day,
while possibly affecting SHV for a brief period late in the
afternoon/early evening. This convection should diminish by early
to mid evening, with MVFR cigs redeveloping over Deep E TX/Cntrl
LA by mid evening, and quickly spreading N across much of the
region by/after 06Z Saturday. These cigs will persist through much
of the morning Saturday, before lifting/becoming VFR by late
morning/midday. S winds will increase by mid-morning to 12-20kts
with gusts to 25-30kts through the afternoon. Look for winds to
diminish slightly to 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts after 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  72  88  71 /  20  30  10  10
MLU  85  69  87  67 /   0  20  10   0
DEQ  76  65  81  65 /  80  40  60  40
TXK  81  70  85  69 /  50  40  40  20
ELD  83  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  10
TYR  80  70  85  70 /  70  30  20  30
GGG  82  70  86  70 /  50  30  20  20
LFK  84  70  87  70 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
551 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-271100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
551 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe weather chances will return to the region today and continue
into the weekend. All modes of severe weather will be possible, along
with a threat for flash flooding resulting from training heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Severe weather chances will linger through the weekend. The greatest
chance for widespread severe weather will be Sunday, with all modes
of severe weather being possible. Additionally, 3-5 inches of
rainfall will be possible through the middle of the new workweek,
which could result in additional flooding and flash flooding given
recent rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.