Flash Flooding and Hail in Texas, April 26 to 27, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
637 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Pacific front working its way across West Central Texas early this
morning. The most potent cluster of storms continue to track
towards the Red River Valley, although the northern Big Country
may get clipped. To the south, a much smaller area of convection
has struggled to get very strong across the eastern Permian Basin
and now moving into the western Concho Valley. Given the very
moist air mass the pacific front is moving through, some expansion
of this area of convection seems possible through sunrise across
the Heartland and Hill Country, although most of the activity will
be out of the area by 12Z.

For the rest of today and tonight, mostly sunny and warm with
gusty southwest winds at times helping push temperatures up near
the 90 degree mark.

Next even more potent shortwave dives into the southern Rockies
tonight, helping push surface winds back to the south and
southeast and bringing rapid low level moisture return back to
the area. Low level jet ramps up tonight, with the nose of the
low level jet exceeding 45 knots across the western Concho Valley
and Big Country before sunrise. CAMs continue to show a small
cluster of storms developing along the nose of the low level jet
late Friday night into Saturday morning as the moisture rapidly
returns and will include a low POP for this situation. Low end
severe threat possible with these storms, both in the form of
marginal hail and with some of these storms able to drag down some
of the higher low level jet winds down to the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...Severe Storms Possible Saturday afternoon and Night...

Main concern is really the threat of a severe weather outbreak
across West Central Texas (and much of the Southern Plains in
fact) for Saturday and Saturday night. All the ingredients coming
together as CAPE values above 3000 j/kg with plenty of shear
helping kick significant tornado parameters above 3 and perhaps 5
across the northern portion of West Central Texas by late SAturday
afternoon and night. Dryline will become established by afternoon
most likely along the western border of the area. Supercells
developing ahead of the dryline late in the afternoon and early
evening look possible, with another pacific front overtaking the
dryline during the evening and what could be a significant squall
line (QLCS) moving across most of West Central Texas Saturday
night. With this setup, all severe weather threats are possible
and this situation will need to be closely monitored. Latest DAy 2
outlook from SPC has a small area of Enhanced across the area,
with a larger Slight across about the eastern half of the area.
Some of the CAMs suggest that the threat may end up a little
farther west so later updates may be adjusted.

One thing that may disrupt the severe weather potential on
Saturday will be the earlier morning convection already mentioned.
If its more widespread than many of the models indicate, or hangs
around longer than expected, than this may disrupt the situation
for later in the day. This looks unlikely at this point but again,
the extent of the early morning on Saturday will affect the
situation for later in the day.

Dry forecast for Sunday into Tuesday before another approaching
upper level trough brings the potential for more showers and
storms for mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Brief MVFR ceilings will affect the KJCT terminal through 14Z.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions today, with southwest winds
gusting 20 to 25 knots after 15Z. Winds will diminish by early
evening but increase from the south and southeast after midnight,
with gusts to 25 knots. Stratus is expected to develop from south
to north across the terminals after 08Z, with MVFR ceilings
persisting through the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  64  82  56 /   0  10  40  80
San Angelo  89  64  88  56 /   0  10  20  80
Junction    92  68  87  63 /  10  10  20  80
Brownwood   87  65  79  60 /  30  10  40  90
Sweetwater  85  63  84  56 /   0  20  40  60
Ozona       89  65  88  56 /   0  10  10  70
Brady       87  67  81  59 /  30  10  30  90

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
502 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-271015-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
502 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few thunderstorms will be possible south and east of a Brownwood
to Sonora line this morning. The main hazard will be dangerous
lightning, although some hail cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of the area Saturday
afternoon into the overnight hours. Severe hazards will include
large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. In
addition, locally heavy rainfall may lead to some minor flooding
concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely Saturday afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
856 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

TXZ155-170-261500-
Mason TX-San Saba TX-
856 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MASON AND
SOUTHEASTERN SAN SABA COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 AM CDT...

At 856 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hedwigs Hill, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee, Castell, Colorado Bend State Park, Art, Pontotoc, Loyal
Valley, Bend, Chappel, Hedwigs Hill, Hilda, and Us-87 Near The Mason-
Gillespie County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 9890 3092 9896 3050 9896 3050 9930
      3091 9900 3126 9858 3120 9857 3116 9850
      3112 9855 3109 9853 3112 9849 3111 9846
      3108 9846 3106 9849 3103 9844 3096 9845
      3093 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1356Z 230DEG 31KT 3063 9912

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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