A powerful upper level storm system tracked across the central Rocky Mountains on the 15th. A strong surface cyclone developed in eastern Colorado out ahead of this system also producing a compact dryline.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A powerful upper level storm system tracked across the central Rocky Mountains on the 15th. A strong surface cyclone developed in eastern Colorado out ahead of this system also producing a compact dryline. This dryline started out in the western South Plains in the morning and moved eastward through the day tightening its dew point gradient along the way. Ample instability existed east of the dryline along with sufficient deep layer wind shear to produce severe storms. However, cloud cover prevented convective initiation for much of the afternoon. Once clouds cleared out late in the afternoon, thunderstorms quickly developed and became severe. One severe storm produced hail up to quarter size as it tracked to the northeast across Stonewall County. Later in the evening, a pacific cold front rushed through the area. Strong westerly winds in the wake of the front produced a severe wind gust of 59 mph near Roaring Springs measured by the Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 15, 12:18 PM CST, 5 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 118 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Today's severe weather threat will be highly conditional on a number of factors. There may be a brief period of thunderstorms in the Rolling Plains for a few hours around 21-01Z this afternoon. Strong surface cyclogenesis was ongoing in northeastern Colorado in response to a strong closed low moving across the central Rockies. The timing of the large scale lift from this system will not be optimal with peak lift not arriving until after 00Z. The bulk of lift from upper level wind divergence will be located well north of the area. However, strong low level convergence will exist on the dryline in the Rolling Plains. Whether this low level lift combined with late arriving large scale lift will be enough to overcome other factors is highly uncertain. Models have come in better agreement with the position of the dryline by late this afternoon mixing it to around the edge of the caprock. This seems reasonable given the position of the surface low in northeastern Colorado. The high level cloud cover is preventing deep boundary layer mixing in the area of interest and keeping temperatures cooler than expected. These clouds will continue to clear out through the rest of the afternoon which will result in quick mixing where the clearing occurs. The question is whether the clearing will be rapid enough to produce enough heating to obtain convective initiation. Models are in good agreement showing a substantial elevated mixed layer above the shallow low level moisture. Convective initiation may still be difficult to reach even if the cap mostly erodes due to the later arrival of large scale lift. Otherwise, very steep lapse rates within the EML will produce instability values up to 3000 J/kg or so. A strong axis of low level theta-e air will exist just east of the dryline location across the Rolling Plains. Good low level turning of winds and mostly straight line hodographs above the low levels will favor supercell development with large hail the primary threat. The cooler temperatures and lack of deep mixing will keep LCLs relatively low in the Rolling Plains. Strong low level helicity values warrants a weak tornado threat with any storm that develops. Any storms that do develop will quickly exit the FA by around 00-01Z. A pacific cold front will then sweep through the area this evening shifting winds to the west and spreading the dry surface air into the Rolling Plains. A strong surface pressure gradient will remain overnight into Tuesday keeping winds strong through the night and morning hours. Strong low level winds maximums will be moving off east of the area on Tuesday afternoon resulting in decreasing winds through the day. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Synoptic-scale flow is forecast to de-amplify by Wednesday as the negatively-tilted trough attenuates and the vertically-stacked lows begin to dissipate over the Great Lakes region, and will become absorbed within the eastern periphery of a more-expansive cyclone rotating over south-central Canada. Stabilizing geopotential height tendencies will follow over the CWA while a shallow, low-amplitude trough pivots over the Sea of Cortez on Wednesday. The continued presence of the cross-barrier flow in the mid-levels will maintain lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico on Wednesday, with a quasi-stationary front losing its baroclinity and transitioning into a broadened surface trough. High temperatures were raised a few degrees on the Caprock as the combination of the southwesterly winds, full insolation, and near-superadiabatic surface-to-3-km lapse rates cause temperatures to warm into the upper 80s on the Caprock while remaining in the lower 80s in the Rolling Plains. A well-defined cirrus shield originating out of the far northeastern Pacific Ocean is also forecast to eclipse the southern portions of the CWA on Wednesday as the low-amplitude trough progresses eastward. There are some indications that a small, barotropic low may form within the shallow waveguide of this trough; however, formation of such a feature is not expected to impede the eastward movement of this trough and the northern edge of the cirrus shield should shift eastward by early Thursday morning. The progression of the large-scale system over south-central Canada will be slow owing to the formation of an Omega Block branching out of the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Series of perturbations propagating through the belt of more-amplified flow to the north is expected to send a cold front southward across the Great Plains and into the CWA by Thursday morning. The cold front will be moving into an increasingly barotropic airmass, though pressure tendencies will facilitate at least breezy, northeasterly winds post-FROPA before the front becomes quasi-stationary to the south of the CWA. Much cooler temperatures are forecast by Friday and into this weekend as the CWA remains north of the quasi-stationary front as CAA persists as cloud clover increases ahead of another low-amplitude trough approaching from the west. Moist, upslope, low-level flow beneath the right entrance-region to a high-level jet streak should facilitate the development of showers and thunderstorms area-wide, especially on Saturday given the position of the quasi-stationary front. Details involving timing, and any potential for thunderstorm intensity, remains nebulous. However, confidence in measurable PoPs is high enough to maintain the likely (>=60 percent) PoP delineation across most of the CWA on Saturday. Precipitation chances will wane by the latter part of the weekend and into early next week following the collapse of the Omega Block to the north, with dry and warm conditions returning by the end of the period. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Thick cloud cover has prevented surface winds from increasing so far this morning into early afternoon. However, these clouds are expected to clear from west to east through the mid-afternoon. Once clouds do clear, winds will quickly increase at the surface out of the southwest. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain well east of KLBB and KPVW and likely to the south of KCDS. A cold front will move through this evening shifting winds to the west and remaining breezy. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Critical fire weather conditions will continue across the western South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle for the next several hours. Winds will quickly increase and dew points will rapidly drop when cloud cover clears the area. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue elsewhere on the caprock with clouds clearing out later in the afternoon. A cold front will move through the area late this evening shifting winds to the west but remaining breezy. Winds will quickly increase again after sunrise on Tuesday morning but will be decreasing through the afternoon hours. Dry air will remain in place across the entire region overnight into Tuesday. Therefore, there may be a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions around mid-day Tuesday where strong winds will overlap decreasing relative humidity values. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027- 028-033-034-039-040. && SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...01
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 113 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 TXZ021>044-161815- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 113 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon off the Caprock, with the highest chances over the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle. Some storms may become severe and will be capable of producing very large hail up to the size of baseballs and wind gusts to 70 mph. A tornado or two is also possible. Critical fire danger will continue through this evening across the western South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for these areas until 8 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across most of the region on Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances return to the region on Friday through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 132 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:34 UTC.
1 hail, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A report from mPING was received of quarter size hail just south of the King County / Stonewall County line along US Highway 83.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, April 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1162617, 1162618.