A humid airmass was in place, south of a slowly approaching cold front. Afternoon convection produced isolated flash flooding.
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The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
A humid airmass was in place, south of a slowly approaching cold front. Afternoon convection produced isolated flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 1, 2:01 PM EST, 4 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 301 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 Key Messages: 1. Widespread and beneficial rainfall expected through late this evening. 2. Dry, but still warm tomorrow. Discussion: A cold front was situated across Kentucky and back into western Tennessee this afternoon. Ahead of the front, widespread showers and thunderstorms were developing, stretching from western portions of our Virginia counties southwest through the northern plateau and into middle Tennessee. Shortwave energy on the southwest periphery of a synoptic scale H5 trough over eastern Canada will drop southeast through the Ohio valley this evening and through the overnight hours. This will push that surface front southeast and lead to expanding coverage of convection across the forecast area through the evening hours. Expect largely diurnal trends with the convection, such that rain chances will drop off overnight despite the cold front not pushing through until roughly daybreak Monday morning. Tonight, other than some convective debris cloudiness in the mid levels and above, clouds should thin out pretty good. Forecast soundings show that low level moisture remains high due to the cold front passage and subsequent air mass change not occurring until after daybreak tomorrow. As such, think that fog development will be possible across the forecast tonight, but relatively speaking more widespread north of the I-40 corridor where skies will clear up soonest. Tomorrow, most guidance still is saying mid to upper 80s for highs south of the I-40 corridor. At first glance that seems warm given the frontal passage, but it's not a strong air mass change and it's only early September so sunny skies will promote another warm day. Dewpoints will be dropping however so it will be more comfortable than some of the heat we've had of late. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 Key Messages: 1. Rain and thunderstorm chances drop at the beginning of the week then increase late week, with the best chances on Thursday and Friday. More clouds and better coverage later in the week. Also, rainfall amounts will start adding up to possibly help drought conditions in the southern part of east Tennessee. 2. A trend towards cooler than normal temperatures for early September will occur through most of the week after Monday. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s possible Thursday and Friday. Discussion: At the start of the long term we will be post-frontal with high pressure building to the north. The front expected to impact the area today (Sunday) and Monday, will stall along northern Gulf of Mexico and across Florida. Surface high pressure will strengthen as it edges east over New England. The past couple of afternoon forecast packages, the only consistency has been the stalled front along the coast. Temperatures and chances for showers and storms are finding it difficult to settle on any sort of agreement. 24 hours ago it was referenced as a "battle" between high pressure to the north and unsettled weather to the south which places our region sandwiched right between. Temperatures of course will be much warmer if no cloud cover or precipitation. Troughing entering the PNW at the start of the period will move across the country through the week while digging south over the Great Lakes by the weekend. A front will accompany the upper trough, eventually passing overhead next weekend. The stalled front to the south will still be parked by the week's end. High pressure moving off of New England will aid moisture return to the area especially Thursday into Friday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also increase this sequence of days, with best possible accumulation on Friday. This also coincides with the coolest temperatures of the week. Chances will decrease heading into Saturday, but there is uncertainty if northwest flow induced precipitation will develop following the FROPA which would keep isolated to scattered showers mostly across higher terrain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 Widespread SHRA/TSRA will move across eastern TN this afternoon and evening as a front moves in from the northwest. Convection should affect all terminals between roughly 20z and 00z. Despite the front moving through tonight, dry air advection doesn't begin in earnest until Monday afternoon. As such, expect a saturated low level air mass tonight with clearing mid level clouds that will promote fog and low cloud development. Uncertain on any impacts at KCHA given how dry the ground is down there, but KTYS and KTRI look to have conditions drop to IFR or lower after 08z tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 70 89 68 / 70 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 68 86 65 / 70 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 66 85 64 / 60 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 66 81 61 / 70 30 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && SHORT TERM...CD LONG TERM....KS AVIATION...CD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-020730- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 /229 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A marginal risk of strong to severe wind gusts continues this afternoon, mainly for northern and central portions of East Tennessee, as well as southwest Virginia. Storms may also produce locally heavy rainfall that can lead to flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not likely to be needed today.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
553 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
TNZ100-101-012245-
West Polk TN-Bradley TN-
553 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BRADLEY AND WESTERN POLK
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...
At 552 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
South Cleveland, or near Cleveland, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Benton, South Cleveland, East Cleveland, Wildwood Lake,
Waterville, Conasauga, Parksville, Red Clay State Park, and Reliance.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3499 8498 3502 8496 3504 8500 3506 8499
3506 8500 3508 8500 3508 8501 3523 8498
3523 8451 3502 8457 3499 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 275DEG 15KT 3510 8491
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JLBThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 48 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:09 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Glades Road and a few other roads were flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1218818.