An upper longwave trough paired with weak shortwaves brings clusters of thunderstorms to the South. One cluster produces a couple instances of severe damaging winds in East Tennessee.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
An upper longwave trough paired with weak shortwaves brings clusters of thunderstorms to the South. One cluster produces a couple instances of severe damaging winds in East Tennessee.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 1:58 PM EST, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Key Messages: 1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms moving in again later tonight into Tuesday. 2. There is a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms as well as locally heavy excessive rainfall this afternoon and again later tonight/Tuesday. Discussion: The active pattern continues for the period with longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS and W/NW flow aloft and a very moist environment over our area. Models generally show PW values of around or exceeding 1.75 inches over most of the area during the period. Ongoing convection this afternoon may produce a few stronger storms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall/localized flooding the primary threats, then this convection is expected to wane early this evening. Most models continue to show an MCS developing to our northwest and moving south/southeast into our area later tonight into Tuesday morning. The details are still not agreed upon and are difficult to pin down at this point, but confidence is high enough to include likely PoPs across roughly the northern half of our area late tonight into early Tuesday. HREF mean MUCAPES are generally around 1000-1750 J/KG later tonight and effective bulk shear of 20 to 30 kts is forecast, which supports the marginal risk of severe storms with damaging wind gusts the primary threat along with the additional threat of heavy rainfall/localized flooding. The model depicted low level shear profile does support the possibility of rotating updrafts, and there is a very low but non-zero threat of a brief tornado late tonight and/or Tuesday. There is some question on how far south the expected linear convective system will make it before it diminishes, with some models showing it making it south of our area while others show it dissipating followed by convection regenerating over the southern half of our area along the leftover boundary during the day Tuesday. In addition, another MCS is forecast to be approaching from the northwest and may begin moving in late in the day. Confidence is low on how this will evolve, so will just carry mainly chance PoPs for the remainder of the day behind the main system, while acknowledging there will may be a significant period with little activity. The atmosphere does still look supportive of strong to severe storms for any development Tuesday afternoon with MLCAPES likely in excess of 2000 over much of the area and continued effective bulk shear of 20 to 30 kts. Damaging winds would again be the main threat and given the recent wet conditions, the threat of localized flooding will also continue to be a concern. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Key Messages: 1. Early Wednesday morning poses a conditional severe wind and heavy rainfall threat from overnight clusters of thunderstorms. 2. Active weather pattern to continue, with additional daily chances of rain and thunderstorms, Thursday looks to be the driest day of the week. 3. Afternoon heat indices near or slightly over 100F in the Knoxville metro and south in the valley during the afternoon and early evening each day Wednesday through Friday. Discussion: Long term period begins Tuesday night into Wednesday with an upper ridge parked over the Texarkana area and a shortwave moving across the St Lawrence Seaway. This results in upper heights forming a potential ridge running scenario where upstart MCSs might slide down into our area. Guidance is supportive yet all over the board on this scenario, with wildly different times, intensities, and evolutions for a cluster of thunderstorms to move through. Effective shear is around 25 knots, with plenty of MUCAPE available for thunderstorms. Only questions is storm initiation, direction, and persistence in the overnight period. Regardless, main threats would be the potential for a strong to perhaps severe wind, along with a continued flooding threat. Flash flood guidance (or the amount of rain needed to produce a flash flood) has fallen precipitously over the northeastern half of our region, and any additional heavy thunderstorms will pose a risk until we can dry out. 12z HREF and HREF PMM guidance indicate the QPF footprint may keep to the central and southern portions of the TN valley, exposing those areas to heavier rainfall and sparing northeastern TN into southwest VA. Still, with continued uncertainty, will keep an eye on the evolution of the pattern. Heading into daytime Wednesday, the upper and midlevel ridges strengthen as we hit the midweek stride, approaching near record values on both levels for the dog days of summer. This brings hot temperatures back into the forecast, at least from the start of the period through Friday. Will likely have to monitor apparent temperatures for each afternoon for possible heat advisory issuance owing to dewpoints in the low 70s causing elevated heat indices. On Saturday a cold front associated with a well modeled upper trough will approach and eventually push through the region, bringing a relief to the heat but likely additional rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 There will be showers and storms around today, then a lull is expected before another round moves in later tonight into Tuesday. The timing of this second round is still uncertain, but will try to time the highest probability for any thunder with a prob30 thunderstorm groups at each site. Will likely see VFR conditions for much of the period, but MVFR or lower conditions can be expected especially with convection. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 93 75 97 / 30 50 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 73 94 / 50 50 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 89 73 94 / 50 50 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 85 69 89 / 70 70 60 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....Wellington AVIATION...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-301915- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 /208 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon into early evening, with additional showers and storms expected to move in late tonight. With abundant moisture in place, repeated, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding. Some strong to severe storms are also possible with damaging winds as the main concern. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Showers and storms will continue into Tuesday and Tuesday night. The potential for localized flooding will continue. Additionally, some storms could be strong to marginally severe Tuesday and overnight Tuesday night with damaging winds and additional heavy rainfall as the main threat. Timing confidence is very low. By daytime Wednesday, the odds of organized thunderstorms becomes low, and the risk of attendant flooding potential also becomes low. Wednesday and Thursday afternoons will be hot and humid, with afternoon heat indices near Knoxville and south in the valley potentially exceeding 100F each afternoon into the early evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports of flooding and damaging winds are welcome.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
119 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024
TNZ085-100>102-291800-
West Polk TN-East Polk TN-Bradley TN-McMinn TN-
119 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BRADLEY...POLK AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCMINN COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...
At 119 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Benton, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Benton, Charleston, Wildwood Lake, Calhoun, Big Frog
Mountain, Parksville, Reliance, Archville, and Hiwassee Ocoee State
Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3511 8484 3532 8478 3526 8443 3523 8437
3499 8446 3499 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 281DEG 18KT 3518 8467
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SRSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
325 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024
TNZ081-082-292115-
Sequatchie TN-Bledsoe TN-
325 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SEQUATCHIE AND
SOUTHWESTERN BLEDSOE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...
At 324 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Spencer, moving southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Dunlap, Brayton, Palio, Old Cumberland, Cagle, and Fall Creek Falls
State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3553 8556 3554 8554 3555 8550 3555 8546
3556 8545 3557 8542 3562 8536 3551 8513
3529 8529 3546 8554 3549 8554 3553 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 305DEG 24KT 3559 8554
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
27Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
445 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024
TNZ081-099-100-292130-
Sequatchie TN-Bradley TN-Hamilton TN-
445 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BRADLEY...EAST
CENTRAL SEQUATCHIE AND EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM
EDT/430 PM CDT/...
At 444 PM EDT/344 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Soddy-Daisy, or 9 miles east of Dunlap, moving
southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Chattanooga, Cleveland, Soddy-Daisy, Lakesite, Harrison, Flat Top
Mountain, North Chickamauga Creek Gorge, Hopewell, Harrison Bay State
Park, and Sale Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3508 8510 3533 8536 3539 8527 3536 8523
3545 8517 3533 8497 3531 8497 3529 8495
3530 8494 3529 8493 3530 8491 3526 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 310DEG 19KT 3535 8522
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
27The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 87 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:05 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A couple of trees were blown down by severe thunderstorm wind gusts on Mowbray Mountain.
A couple of trees and powerlines were blown down by severe thunderstorm wind gusts on Hamby Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1189590, 1189589.