Hail in South Dakota, August 21, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
207 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storms expected this afternoon and
  evening, a few storms may be strong to severe.

- Critical fire weather conditions for northeast Wyoming this
  afternoon.

- Daily chances for storms through Friday, drier the remainder of
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeastern MT,
with a frontal boundary stretching into southwest SD this
afternoon. Upper air models continue to show ridge over the
northern plains, with upper High over the southern plains.
Temperatures currently sit in the mid 70s over northwestern SD,
while the rest of the forecast area sits in the mid 80s to mid
90s.

Storms are once again expected this afternoon and evening, as low
level southeasterly winds advect moisture into the region. The
best instability ranges from south central SD up to northwestern
SD, with ML CAPE values stretching into the 2000-3000 j/Kg range.
A bit better shear today than the previous days as well, reaching
into the 35-45kt range over the western SD plains. With the
boundary allowing for better forcing today, parameters should be
enough to support a few strong to severe storms through this
evening. Thermal profiles support severe winds and marginally
severe hail threats for today. For the western area of our CWA,
drier air coupled with breezy winds has allowed for elevated to
critical fire weather conditions, especially over parts of
northeastern Wyoming, where RH's are near 10% with winds gusting
up to 35 mph.

Multiple mid-level waves will support shower/storm chances through
Friday. Models show a wave moving through later Thursday,
generally south of our forecast area, with our southern most
counties potentially seeing some isolated precipitation. Another
wave passing through Friday afternoon may bring a better chance of
more widespread storms again. By saturday the pattern shifts
somewhat as the ridge shifts eastward, allowing for drier
conditions for Sat/Sun and potentially early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1036 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2024

MVFR/IFR stratus over northwest SD will dissipate by early
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening, especially across western SD, with local IFR
conditions in the stronger storms.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ321-322.
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314-315-317.
&&

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
241 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2024

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028-030>032-042>044-046-047-049-
072>078-WYZ056-057-060-221300-
Harding-Northern Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foothills-Rapid City-
Central Black Hills-Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-
Northern Oglala Lakota-Northern Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-
Tripp-Sturgis/Piedmont Foothills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foothills-Eastern Fall River-Southern Oglala Lakota-
Southern Jackson-Southern Perkins-Western Crook-
Wyoming Black Hills-Northeastern Crook-
241 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2024 /341 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
today, meaning that isolated severe storms are possible. Primary
hazards include hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday through
Saturday. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will result in elevated
fire weather conditions on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ027-029-041-WYZ054-055-058-059-221300-
Southern Foothills-Southern Black Hills-Western Fall River-
Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Weston County Plains-
Newcastle-
241 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwestern
South Dakota...the Black Hills of South Dakota...and northeast
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will result in elevated to
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today with dry lightning and
strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will result in critical fire
weather conditions on Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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