The combination of strong forcing, instability, and ambient shear combined to produce a significant threat of severe weather across southeast South Carolina during the afternoon hours. As thunderstorms moved across the area, several instances of damaging wind gusts and large hail were reported.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CHS wrote it up.
The combination of strong forcing, instability, and ambient shear combined to produce a significant threat of severe weather across southeast South Carolina during the afternoon hours. As thunderstorms moved across the area, several instances of damaging wind gusts and large hail were reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 9, 10:20 AM EST, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1120 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the area tonight, then move offshore Friday. High pressure will prevail for the weekend into early next week. A storm system could affect the area by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Regional radar composite shows a strong line of convection over east Central GA and the Midlands of SC, moving southeast. This is the main line of convection that'll bring severe weather to our area into this afternoon. Low stratus has dissipated in portions of our area, but has remained around a little bit longer. In areas it has dissipated, temperatures are rapidly rising. Temperatures are forecasted to peak around mid-day in the upper 80s inland to around 90 degrees across the coastal counties. Instability continues to rise across our area. SPC Mesoscale Analysis indicates MLCAPE values should peak in the 1,500-2,000 J/kg. In addition, effective bulk shear will increase, reaching 45-50 kt by the afternoon. SO there is plenty of instability and shear in place. DCAPE values are forecast to remain in excess of 1,000 J/kg, which combined with the shear, will lead to an enhanced wind threat. High resolution guidance indicates that a MCS will push SE across our area during the upcoming hours, with it taking longer to move across our GA counties as there is more backbuilding and less of an easterly flow to the storms. Plus, the hi-res models are indicating the storms are a few hours slower than reality. This is backed up by current radar imagery and trends. Using these trends, we updated the POPs/Weather grids to account for this, along with the expected forecast into the afternoon. Though, more adjustments to the timing will be needed based on future radar trends. The line of thunderstorms is anticipated to rapidly push across the forecast area, with storm motions around 40-50 mph. These storms should produce swaths of damaging wind gusts, likely resulting in numerous downed trees. The most vigorous updrafts should occur over SE GA, some severe hail is possible and we can't rule out a brief tornado. SPC has highlighted the region with a Enhanced risk generally south of the Edisto River with a Slight risk to the north. The storms should last across a specific location for an hour or two. In the wake of the storms, an area of stratiform rainfall will persist across the forecast area into the early evening hours. Isolated thunder will remain possible within the stratiform rain this evening. The rainfall will dissipate and move east of the forecast area by mid-evening. The rest of the night should remain generally dry. However, a second MCS will arrive from the west after the pre-dawn hours Friday morning. Rain-cooled temperatures are expected to remain nearly steady around 70 degrees tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday: We remain focused on Friday with another potential severe weather day ahead. By morning, the cold front will be positioned across the SC/GA Midlands. The front is not expected to clear the area until late, therefore we could see another round of convection moving in from the west some time between late morning and afternoon as the boundary presses toward the coast. This is another highly uncertain event with a range of possibilities, noted by differing solutions for nearly each model. Most models do show some sort of line/cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving through the forecast area at some point during the day however. One possibility is that lingering showers/thunderstorms in the morning could delay destabilization, which will inhibit deep convection later in the afternoon. There are also signals of an upstream MCV propagating across southern AL/GA and northern FL, which could advance into southeast Georgia and portions of southeast South Carolina. However these southerly systems have the potential to greatly alter the downstream environment by cutting off southerly flow/moisture across the forecast area, thus inhibiting destabilization. On the other hand, a moderate break from the previous night's convection and perhaps a slight break in clouds would destabilize the environment early on, allowing for a rich, untapped environment for strong/severe storms to develop. Overall, it is unclear how the severe threat will pan out Friday, and there is a degree of dependence on the evolution of Thursday's event. With that said, any severe storms that develop would be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and/or an isolated tornado. Outside of severe weather, showers and even general thunderstorms could result in locally heavy downpours with PWATS in the 1.6-1.8" range. Guidance hints towards the greatest rainfall amounts falling south of the Savannah River. Showers and thunderstorms should push offshore by the evening with conditions rapidly clearing behind the front. Max temperatures will be slightly cooler due to ongoing or afternoon convection, with highs in the mid 80s. FROPA and clearing skies will cause temperatures to significantly drop Friday night, with lows in the mid to upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. Saturday and Sunday: Quasi-zonal flow will exist aloft and general high pressure will gradually build. A cool, dry air mass will move into the area behind the cold front bringing rain-free conditions. Mostly sunny skies are expected both days with highs peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and low to mid 80s Sunday. A relatively cool night is expected Saturday, with lows in the mid to upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Early next week will briefly start off quiet before a warm front extending across the Deep South lifts north. Conditions look quite unsettled beginning late Monday night into Wednesday. Rain chances were increased into the likely range (55-70%) during this period due to the consensus of deep moisture moving in, in addition to plentiful forcing aloft with a shortwave traversing the Central U.S. Near normal temperatures are expected to rise through the middle of next week owing to southerly flow. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS and KJZI into early this afternoon. The primary concern will be the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. A line of thunderstorms will approach from the west this morning. Based on radar trends and recent HRRR runs, the leading edge of the thunderstorms is expected to reach KCHS, KSAV, and KJZI by 18Z. The TAFs will feature gusty west winds and TSRA by 18z. The environment may support severe wind gust and possibly hail. The KCHS and KJZI TAFs will include a TEMPO from 18-21Z for VRB20G30kts and MVFR conditions during TSRAs. KSAV may see stronger wind gusts, TSRA risk from 18-22Z. High resolution guidance indicates that the thunderstorms will push east over the Atlantic by late this afternoon, with generally stratiform rain with isolated lightning remaining into the early to mid evening. Forecast soundings and MOS indicate that MVFR to IFR ceilings may develop over the terminals late tonight. Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms could continue into Friday afternoon with flight restrictions and gusty winds possible within convection. VFR conditions will return for the weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will gradually strengthen through the day, generally ranging between 15-20kts this afternoon. A few periods of gusts around 25 kts are possible across the Charleston County nearshore waters this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory could be issued later today. Seas should favor values between 3-4 ft, with 5 ft seas possible across portions of the Charleston Co. nearshore. Otherwise, the primary concern will be the passage of a squall line of thunderstorms late this afternoon into early this evening. These storms could potential produce gusts in excess of 50 kts and possibly a waterspout. Convection should end over the marine zones this evening. Winds tonight will return from the southwest between 15 to 20 kts. Wave heights of 2-4 ft will be common tonight. Friday: A strong cold front will push offshore late, causing SW winds to shift out of the north. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected Friday afternoon through Friday night with gusts ranging between 20-25 kt. At this time, the Charleston County nearshore waters out to 20nm and the outer Georgia waters from 20- 60nm look the most promising for any advisories that could be needed. Seas will be slightly elevated with 2-4 ft in the nearshore waters and 5 ft seas beyond 20nm. Another concern for the local waters will be the potential for strong thunderstorms Friday afternoon. There is still a large degree of uncertainty; however, any storms that do develop and move across the waters will be capable of producing strong wind gusts. Saturday through Tuesday: Marine conditions will improve Saturday morning as high pressure builds in from the west. Northerly winds will shift out of the south with speeds dropping to 10 kt or less and seas averaging 1-3 ft through Monday. Monday night into Tuesday winds and seas look to increase/build ahead of the next storm system. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...BRM LONG TERM...BRM AVIATION...BRM/NED MARINE...BRM/NED
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston SC 1219 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 AMZ330-350-352-354-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045- 047>052-101630- Charleston Harbor- Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM- Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch- Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham- Coastal Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh- Coastal McIntosh-Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester- Inland Berkeley-Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston- Coastal Jasper-Tidal Berkeley- 1219 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...TORNADO WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters, southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time. AMZ374-101630- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM- 1219 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Severe Thunderstorms: A band of thunderstorms will sweep across the region ahead of an approaching cold front through this evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, along with large hail, and/or an isolated waterspout. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Severe Thunderstorms: Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms could impact the region Friday. While there is considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of these thunderstorms, any storms that do move through the area will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and/or an isolated waterspout. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1221 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024
GAZ087-091645-
Jenkins-
1221 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF JENKINS COUNTY...
At 1221 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Midville to
near Burke County Airport, and moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar Indicated.
IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
light, unsecured objects.
Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Millen, Butts, Emmalane, Perkins, and Herndon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A tornado watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce tornadoes
suddenly, sometimes with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly
changing weather conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe
weather is observed or a warning is issued.
&&
LAT...LON 3289 8211 3292 8208 3292 8195 3295 8186
3294 8183 3295 8182 3292 8177 3291 8177
3284 8180 3268 8208 3268 8209 3281 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 284DEG 27KT 3285 8229 3301 8205
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPHThe Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 49 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:45 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Colleton County dispatch reported a tree down in the roadway at Mill Pond Road and Lowcountry Highway.
Dorchester County dispatch reported a tree down across Eagle Drive.
A trained spotter reported quarter sized hail at St. James Avenue and Fairfax Boulevard in Goose Creek.
A trained spotter reported penny sized hail in the Goose Creek area.
Colleton County Emergency Management reported a tree down on Highway 64 near Ravenwood Plantation.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1185447, 1185448, 1185444, 1185445, 1185451.