Cold in California, May 9 to 11, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
328 PM PDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will bring dry weather with
widespread above normal temperatures through the weekend and well
into next week, with Valley highs in the 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper troughing will linger over the Great Basin Region through
Saturday, as high pressure builds eastward into the Pacific
Northwest and extends into Northern California. The surface
pressure gradient between these two features has relaxed and gusty
winds have decreased, so the Wind Advisory for the mountains and
northeast foothills was allowed to expire at 11 am. Some breezy
winds are continuing over the area, though, with gusts to 15 to
25 mph in the Valley, 25-35 mph in the mountains. Some northerly
winds continue into Friday, but will not be as strong.

Temperatures 5 to 9 degrees higher than this time yesterday, with
highs on track to reach the upper 80s. The warming trend will
continue into the weekend with temperatures reaching well above
normal levels, 10-12 degrees above normal for the weekend. Valley
highs climb into the 90's. This will be a big change from the
below normal temperatures form earlier this week. Expect brief
periods of Moderate Heat Risk during the afternoon hours.

Dry weather is expected for most of the area, though the Great
Basin low will retrograde (move west) through Friday. This will
bring some instability and moisture over the central Sierra. Some
Friday afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible over the
Sierra Crest well south of Highway 50, in eastern Tuolumne County.

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.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...
Clusters continue to show ridging as the dominant forecast
feature through the extended, continuing our stretch of above
normal temperatures and generally dry weather. Clusters show some
uncertainty regarding the strength of the ridge in the Pacific
creating a larger range of possibilities for afternoon
temperatures next week. The NBM reflects this high temperature
uncertainty, with spread of 8-12 degrees mid to late week across
points of the Valley, making exact forecast details uncertain at
this point. The spread has lowered slightly, increasing confidence
of warm and dr weather continuing. The current forecast has
afternoon high in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the Valley with
mainly 70s and 80s for the mountains and foothills.

Dry weather continues across the area next week except for a
slight chance of Monday afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
possible over the Sierra Crest south of Highway 50 but forecast
ingredients don't look to support development of any impactful
thunderstorm or convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions across interior NorCal over the next 24 hours.
Local Valley wind gusts up to 15-20 kts through 00Z Friday. Wind
gusts 20-35 kts gusts over the Sierra and adjacent foothills
through 18Z Friday. Otherwise, surface winds less than 12 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&