Rip Current in Puerto Rico, March 10, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
415 PM AST Sun Mar 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Fair weather conditions will persist for the the next few days
due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, which will result in
drier air aloft and warmer temperatures at the 500 mb. Although
stable weather conditions should persist later in the week, shallow
moisture at the surface will enhance isolated showers in the
morning, followed by the afternoon convection across the interior
due to diurnal heating and local effects. A surface low pressure
at the western Atlantic will result in a northerly swell invading
the local waters by Monday night, resulting in building seas and
dangerous breaking waves for midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...

Fair weather conditions with moderate seabreeze prevailed through
the morning and then some cloud/shower development was seen
across the interior sections of Puerto Rico during the afternoon,
however any showers that developed were very light and refreshing
on such a warm Sunday. Temperatures were in the mid-80s across the
coastal areas and in the upper 70s across the interior sections.

Surface high pressure northeast of the region will advect dry air
across the islands through the short term period with precipitable
water values reaching well below climatological normals for tomorrow
and Tuesday. Mid to upper-level ridging will continue across the
Caribbean Basin promoting stable conditions locally. Due to the
dry air and stable conditions aloft, fair conditions are expected
to prevail through Tuesday with minimal rainfall. Best chance for
showers will be during the afternoon hours once diurnal heating
and local effects take place across the interior to western
sections of PR. Winds will back a little becoming east-
northeasterly on Tuesday due to the development of a surface high
leaving the CONUS. Overall, breezy and sunny, warm days are to be
expected as the dry air and ridging aloft supports sinking of air
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
/from previous discussion/
From the beginning of the period, a broad building surface high
pressure over the western Atlantic will promote east-
northeasterly winds across the region. Under this pattern, the
islands will persist under a drier airmass dominating the area. As
a result, the islands will mostly experiment with stable weather
conditions with much fresh temperatures. As the surface high
pressure develops and moves eastward, extending into the central
Atlantic, veering winds will drag patches of shallow moisture over
the region. Recent model guidance now suggests a drier Wednesday
into Thursday with an increase in moisture by early Friday, when
the surface high pressure will be located just north of the region
over the Central Atlantic. Under this pattern, by Friday, the
islands can expect an increase in the frequency of shower activity
across the windward section in the morning hours and over the
interior in the afternoon hours. Although the increase in moisture
will lead to more showers, the mid to upper- level ridge will
limit vertical development across the region. Therefore,
significant rainfall accumulations are not expected. From Saturday
onwards, drier air will move again to the CWA, leading to stable
weather conditions once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18z TAFS)

VFR at all terminals durg prd. Aftn SHRA development ovr the ctrl
and west Mtn range of PR with, with VCSH psbl mainly at TJSJ/TJBQ
and mainly downwind of the USVI terminals til 10/22z. SFC wnd mainly
fm E btw 12-18 kt with hir gusts and sea breeze variations, bcmg
calm to light/variable aft 10/23Z. L/LVl wnd fm E-NE 10-15 kts BLO
FL100..then backing bcmg fm N and incr w/ht ABV.  No sig operational
wx impacts durg prd.

&&

.MARINE...

An area of high pressure northeast of the region will promote light
to moderate east winds through tomorrow as it moves eastward into
the central Atlantic. Winds will then become more northeasterly on
Tuesday due to a surface high pressure in the western
Atlantic near the coastline of Florida. Northerly swells will begin
to reach the local waters by Monday night and bring hazardous seas
across the Atlantic waters by Wednesday. Moderate to fresh trades
return by midweek.

Therefore, small craft advisories will be in effect for that time
frame. There is a moderate rip current risk across all northern
coastal areas of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St Croix for the next
few days. However, once the swell arrives, the risk will increase
up to high across the northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico by
Monday night.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

DSR/YZR/RC

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR
400 AM AST domingo 10 de marzo de 2024

AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-111000-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-
Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-
Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe-
400 AM AST domingo 10 de marzo de 2024

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
sectores de Puerto Rico.

.DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche

.Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son posibles en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente para
playas desde Aguadilla hasta Ceiba a través del norte de Puerto Rico
y el norte de Culebra.

.DÍAS DOS A SIETE...lunes a sábado

Comenzando el lunes en la noche y persistiendo durante la semana de
trabajo, se espera que las condiciones marítimas y costeras se
deterioren debido a los pulsos de marejadas del norte y el aumento
de las velocidades del viento.  En consecuencia, los criterios de
Advertencia para Embarcaciones Pequeñas y las corrientes marinas
amenazantes a la vida son probables.  Las condiciones de brisa
fuerte son posibles a través de algunas áreas costeras el martes,
persistiendo hasta el fin de semana.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN OBSERVADORA...

No será necesaria la activación de observadores.

AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-111000-
San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
400 AM AST domingo 10 de marzo de 2024

Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para
sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas.

.DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche

.Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son posibles en la zona de olas, particularmente a través de las
medias playas del este de Santa Cruz.

.DÍAS DOS A SIETE...lunes a sábado

Comenzando el lunes en la noche y persistiendo durante la semana de
trabajo, se espera que las condiciones marítimas y costeras se
deterioren debido a los pulsos de marejadas del norte y el aumento
de las velocidades del viento.  En consecuencia, los criterios de
Advertencia para Embarcaciones Pequeñas y las corrientes marinas
amenazantes a la vida son probables.  Las condiciones de brisa
fuerte son posibles a través de las islas el jueves, persistentes
durante todo el fin de semana.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN OBSERVADORA...

No será necesaria la activación de observadores.