A deep-layered trough along with several frontal boundaries was approaching the Caribbean Islands in the first week of February. The winds became light and from the south-southwest, pulling plenty of moisture from the Caribbean Sea.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A deep-layered trough along with several frontal boundaries was approaching the Caribbean Islands in the first week of February. The winds became light and from the south-southwest, pulling plenty of moisture from the Caribbean Sea. First, several clusters of showers moved across western Puerto Rico, but the rain then spread eastward during the day. In the evening hours, the rain reached the Virgin Islands, with pulses of heavy rain observed. The next day was wet as well, although not as intense, with several periods of continuous light to moderate showers. In Puerto Rico, the areas around Caguas collected up to 5 inches, while 3 to 5 inches fell in general in the east, interior and west. A few rivers reached flood stage with this event, but the main impacts were associated with strong gusty winds that resulted in reports of several tree limbs in the ground.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 6, 4:58 AM AST, 6 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 AM AST Tue Feb 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A more unsettled and wet pattern is forecasted for today through
Thursday as a deep-layer trough moves over the region, increasing
instability and a plume of tropical moisture. During this weather
event, residents across the southeastern sections of Puerto Rico
can expect rainfall accumulation from 3 to 6 inches, and for the
rest of the island and the U.S. Virgin Islands, from 1 to 4
inches. Consequently, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 6 AM
today through Thursday morning. For more detailed information
about the weather, please visit www.weather.gov/sju. Wind-driven
seas and a pulse of northerly swell will result in hazardous
marine conditions across the offshore Atlantic waters and local
passages from today into the upcoming days. Please visit the
Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU) for more detailed information.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...
A deep layered trough will promote unstable weather conditions and
increase the risk of flooding across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands through Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch(FFASJU) is in effect for
all of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hazardous seas and life-
threatening rip currents due to increasing winds and a northerly swell
will affect the local waters and most northwest to northeastern coastal
areas of the islands through the rest of the week.
Variably cloudy skies prevailed through the overnight hours as showers
and isolated thunderstorms developed under southerly steering winds
across portions of the interior and eastern Puerto Rico. The doppler
radar estimated near 1 inch of rain in Orocovis and Cayey after
midnight. Minimum temperatures were from the mid 60s across the higher
elevations to the mid 70s and low 80s across the lower elevations. Wind
gusts were between 16-22 mph across coastal areas. Breezy conditions
are expected to prevail across the islands today as low-level wind
speed convergence continues over the region.
A deep layered polar trough and associated surface low will continue to
amplify over the southwestern Atlantic during the next few days. This
will promote a deep southerly wind flow and pooling of tropical
moisture from South America into the northeastern Caribbean and the
Atlantic waters through at least late Wednesday night. Therefore, an
unsettled weather pattern is expected with numerous showers and
thunderstorm development across the local area. The wettest period is
expected from this morning over southern PR, stretching eastward into
the Virgin Islands later today, with a second round of flooding rains
on Wednesday. The highest accumulations should be for the south,
interior, and eastern PR, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. The most
likely scenario calls for 3 to 6 inches of rainfall for
southern/eastern PR and 2-4 for the USVI. Isolated higher amounts are
possible through the event. The main impacts are flash flooding and
mudslides, but thunderstorms with strong gusty winds are expected as
well.
By Thursday, a strong surface high pressure over Southeastern USA, and
the surface low now over the north central Atlantic will promote a long
northerly wind fetch across the western Atlantic into the northeastern
Caribbean. This will cause the local winds to turn from the north-
northwest and push the plume of moisture further east and away of the
local area. The precipitable water content is expected to decrease
below normal levels by early Thursday afternoon. However, the upper-
level trough axis is expected to cross the local area earlier in the
day and the 500 mb temperatures are forecast to drop to around -10C.
Therefore, the threat for additional shower and isolated thunderstorm
development could last into Thursday morning.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
A drier and more stable trend is forecasted for the beginning of
the long term. Model guidance indicates a more stable pattern at
the upper levels as the divergent side of the polar trough moves
eastward out of the forecast area, leaving subsidence over the
islands and being replaced by ridging. A similar trend is expected
at the mid-levels, with the GFS suggesting a broad building mid-
level ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the
Caribbean. The presence of the mid-level ridge will begin on
Friday afternoon and persist for the rest of the period as it
stretches into the central Atlantic.
The last part of the long-term global model guidance shows some
discrepancies between the two solutions, one stable and drier and
another stable but with more moisture. According to the GFS, from
Friday onwards and for the rest of the forecast period, the
islands are expected to be mostly dominated by a building surface
high-pressure system extending from the western Atlantic into the
Central Atlantic, resulting in northerly winds for Friday and
veering winds for the rest of the forecast period. Conversely, the
ECMWF solution shows a similar trend with a surface high-pressure
system located over the western Atlantic, but from Sunday into
Monday, the guide suggests a decent increase in humidity at 850 MB
and a weak short-wave trough over the area. As we are still far
away in the forecast, the forecast for the last part of the long
term reflects a combination of both solutions, resulting in a
variable weather pattern, given the presence of the mid-level
ridge causing a strong trade wind cap inversion and drier air
aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
SCT SHRA/Isold TSRA will develop over PR today, and
across portions of the southern and eastern waters of the islands,
affecting the USVI terminals at times through the forecast
period. Tempo MVFR to brief IFR conditions are possible across all
local terminals. Mtn top obscd and BKN/OVC layers through FL100
expected. Low level winds will continue from the south-southwest
between 15 to 25 kt with higher gusts near SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
The interaction of a deep-layer trough and the broad Atlantic
ridge extending into the eastern Caribbean will result in
southerly fresh to locally strong winds. This wind-driven sea will
create hazardous marine conditions for the Atlantic offshore
waters. By midweek, the arrival of a northerly swell will
aggravate the situation, resulting in building seas and large
breaking waves. The local waters will experience squally marine
weather from today through Thursday, resulting in localized
hazardous marine conditions.
For beachgoers, there is a moderate rip current risk across all
the northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the local islands.
An increase in breaking waves is forecast from late tomorrow into
the rest of the workweek.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for PRZ001>013.
VI...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for VIZ001-002.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM AST Monday
for AMZ711.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM AST
Wednesday for AMZ716-723.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM AST this
evening for AMZ726.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM AST Thursday
for AMZ741.
&&
SHORT TERM & AVIATION...DS
LONG TERM....LIS/ YZRPerspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR 526 AM AST martes 6 de febrero de 2024 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-070930- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior- Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques- Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe- 526 AM AST martes 6 de febrero de 2024 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para sectores de Puerto Rico. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Numerosas tormentas eléctricas posibles a través de la región. Planee detener toda la actividad al aire libre y mudarse a refugios. .Lluvia Excesiva...Inundaciones repentinas amenazantes a la vida, posiblemente ingresando a estructuras y cortando vecindarios. .Viento...Condiciones de viento. Los artículos al aire libre podrían salir volando o dañarse. .Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies a través de las aguas del Atlántico y Pasajes. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son posibles en la zona de olas a través de todas las playas de las islas. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...miércoles a lunes A medida que se establezca el flujo de vientos del suroeste a través de Puerto Rico incluyendo Culebra y Vieques hasta el miércoles, la amenaza de lluvia excesiva y rayos continuará elevada y limitada, respectivamente. La amenaza de inundaciones es probable. Se esperan vientos del sur de más de 17 nudos (20 mph) hasta el jueves a través de las aguas locales y partes de Puerto Rico. El oleaje peligroso con marejada del norte regresará hasta el lunes. Riesgo Alto de Corrientes Marinas regresa el miércoles hasta el domingo. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-070930- San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 526 AM AST martes 6 de febrero de 2024 Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Numerosas tormentas eléctricas posibles a través de la región. Planee detener toda la actividad al aire libre y mudarse a refugios. .Lluvia Excesiva...Inundaciones en áreas urbanas, calles, riachuelos y canales. Inundaciones repentinas aisladas posibles. .Viento...Condiciones de viento. Los artículos al aire libre podrían salir volando o dañarse. .Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies a través de las aguas del Atlántico y Pasajes. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son posibles en la zona de olas a través de todas las playas de las islas. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...miércoles a lunes A medida que se establezca el flujo de vientos del suroeste a través de las Islas Vírgenes Estadounidenses hasta el miércoles, la amenaza de lluvia excesiva y rayos continuará elevada y limitada, respectivamente. La amenaza de inundaciones es probable. Se esperan vientos del sur de más de 17 nudos (20 mph) a través de muchas aguas locales y partes de las Islas Vírgenes Estadounidenses hasta el jueves. El oleaje peligroso con marejada del norte regresará hasta el lunes. Riesgo Alto de Corrientes Marinas regresa el miércoles hasta el domingo. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.
The San Juan radar (TJUA), 114 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:18 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind, 9 flood, 6 flash flood, 4 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
An area of extensive flooding was observed in Paseo Litoral, near Supermercados Selectos in Mayaguez.
A weather spotter reported three trees down due to strong gusty winds.
A report received in social media and by the 9-1-1 call center indicated a big fallen tree affecting electrical lines near PR-782, Barrio Ceiba.
A tree fell down due to gusty winds, affecting several houses near PR-129, La Finquita.
Flooding was reported along Calle Jupiter in Isla Verde.
A tree was reported down at Barrio La Mesa, PR-795.
A tree fell down at PR-162, near the High School at Calle Degetau. The tree was obstructing the road and affected an electrical post.
Flooding was reported in the streets near Hospital Menonita.
Flooding was reported at PR-1, in front of Alberic Motors.
A house was being affected by flooding along Calle Esteban Padilla del Caribe in Caguas.
Road PR-52 was flooded near exit toward Ave. Degetau.
Flooding was reported at Calle Laurel, affecting a house. One person was reported trapped inside the resident.
A rockfall was reported at PR-859, near Motel Paradise Gem.
A report from the media indicated that a tree fell into a parking lot in Centro Medico (a hospital). Three cars received considerable damage, and three other cars observed minor damage.
Flooding was reported at Calle Monsenor Berrios, with a person trapped in a car in the flooding.
Road PR-1 near Pedro Diaz Fonseca School was flooded. Water was entering a house.
A fallen utility pole was affecting Highway Luis A Ferrer (PR-52), near Exit 20.
Flooding was reported at Calle Montreal, close to Joseph Barber.
A fallen tree was reported near La Canilla at PR-129.
People remained trapped in their cars due to flooded roads, near PR-189 and Ave. Luis Munoz Marin.
Calle Condado Moderno, near Manuela Toro Morice School was flooded. A person was reported trapped at this area.
Calle Bohio was reported as flooded, and the waters was affecting several residences. People were trapped inside their houses, including some bedridden.
Calle Bohio was reported as flooded, and the waters was affecting several residences. People were trapped inside their houses, including some bedridden.
A tree fell down due to gusty winds at road PR-172 in Cidra.
Power lines were knocked down by wind gusts along PR-181, near Bar El Caminante.
Power lines were knocked down by gusty winds at 1 Calle Cristobal Colon in Yabucoa.
Flooding was reported at Calle Asturias. The water was approaching a house.
A landslide was reported at Calle Humildad, Urb. Villa Esperanza, likely due to previous day heavy rainfall. No people were trapped due to this landslide.
A tree fell down to previous day heavy rainfall, near the municipal police station at PR-174 in Bayamon.
A landslide was affecting road PR-1 near Losetas Italianas, just before the traffic light at Nadal Highway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1163085, 1163086, 1163084, 1163087, 1163088, 1163089, 1163090, 1163091, 1163092, 1163093, 1163094, 1163095, 1163096, 1163226, 1163227, 1163228, 1163229, 1163230, 1163232, 1163233, 1163234, 1163235, 1163236, 1163237, 1163238, 1163239, 1163240, 1163241, 1163242, 1163243.