Rip Current in Puerto Rico, December 25, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
418 PM AST Wed Dec 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Saharan dust will gradually decrease across the local islands,
while on and off showers continue for the next couple of days.
Temperatures will cool down a little by the end of the week and
early next week. Seas have subsided, but could become hazardous
again late in the weekend as a northerly swell arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight to Friday...

Calm weather conditions prevailed throughout the morning; however,
a pocket of moisture brought showers from the east across the
region, resulting in showery weather. We also observed hazy skies
today due to suspended dust particles.The maximum temperature for
the area of San Juan was 86.

Showers will spread across mainland PR, enhanced by local effects
and sea breeze convergence, resulting in periods of moderate to
locally heavy rains. Some of these rains will occasionally result
in water ponding and poorly drained areas. Although the Saharan
Air Layer will continue to move away from the islands, hazy skies
will persist through at least early Thursday morning.

The weather pattern that we expect to dominate in PR and the USVI
is typical for this time of the year. It consists of a mixture of
sunshine and clouds with the arrival of occasional showers due to
the trade winds across the windward sections of Puerto Rico and
the USVI. Showers will then spread into the interior and western
sections of PR during the afternoon. Regardless of the suspended
dust particles, pockets of moisture enhanced by low-level
convergence will result in showery weather, especially across the
windward sections across the north and east PR. Ponding of water
due to moderate to locally heavy rains will occasionally affect
where these showers become more frequent.

Additionally, as a high pressure exits the eastern coast of the
United States, the winds will turn from the north by Friday and
the weekend. This will likely translate into cooler than normal
temperatures, with highs only in the low 80s for coastal areas,
and lows just above 70 degrees, and much cooler values for the
higher elevations across the islands.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.../from prev discussion/

The latest model guidances continues to suggest a very dry and
cooler pattern for most of the long-term period. Moisture associated
with a cold front north of the region is anticipated to cross the
islands by Saturday into Sunday. As the front moves over the region,
isolated to scattered showers are likely mostly over the
northeastern municipalities of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands during the morning hours. Then, in the afternoon hours
the southern and southwestern portions of Puerto Rico will observe
the development of more shower activity over the area. A drop in
precipitable water content is expected by Monday with values
around 1.35 inches. Therefore, limited shower activity and stable
weather conditions are anticipated for the New Year's
festivities. At the surface levels a building strong high
pressure moving-off the eastern coast of the Continental United
States and a strong low in the central Atlantic will promote a
moderate to locally fresh wind flow from the north across the
region. As both of the systems builds up over the waters, cooler
and dry air will filter into the region promoting temperatures to
drop during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Expect VFR conds with brief SHRA/+SHRA at JSJ/IST/ISX thru the
fcst period, and at JPS between 26th at 18:00-22:00 UTC and 27th
at 18:00-23:00 UTC. These showers may lead to brief MVFR
conditions at times. Winds will range N-ENE at 10-15 kt with
higher gusts during the day, becoming calm and variable overnight.
Hazy skies with visibility above 6 statute miles will continue
late tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
A building surface high pressure over the Western Atlantic will
yield gentle to moderate east to northeast winds. Small craft should
exercise caution across the Atlantic waters tonight, followed by
improving conditions through the end of the week. Increasing winds
and seas are anticipated over the weekend. In the meantime, the
remnants of an old frontal will continue to generate isolated to
scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
As the winds slow down, the risk of rip currents will drop to
moderate tonight, and will continue to be moderate through early
in the weekend. However, a northerly swell will approach on Sunday
and early next week, with the likelihood of life-threatening rip
currents increasing once again.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ERG
LONG TERM....YZR

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR
421 AM AST miércoles 25 de diciembre de 2024

AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-260830-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-
Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-
Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe-
421 AM AST miércoles 25 de diciembre de 2024

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
sectores de Puerto Rico.

.DÍA UNO...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas aisladas posibles a través del
suroeste de Puerto Rico esta tarde.  Esté atento a las  tormentas
eléctricas en su área y esté preparado para buscar refugio.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Acumulación de agua en carreteras y áreas de
pobre drenaje a través de los sectores suroeste de Puerto Rico.
Las inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos son posibles.

.Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies a través de
las aguas del Atlántico.  Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones
pequeñas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son probables en la zona de oleaje particularmente a lo largo de las
playas del norte desde Rincón hasta Fajardo.

.DÍAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes

Se espera un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas el jueves y
viernes, el riesgo regresará a alto tarde en el fin de semana hasta
el lunes.  Condiciones de advertencia para embarcaciones pequeñas
son posibles el domingo a través de las aguas del Atlántico.  Existe
un riesgo limitado de inundaciones  el viernes a lo largo de las
costas en el noreste de Puerto Rico y el  suroeste de la Cordillera
Central resultando en estanques de áreas pobremente  drenadas.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES...

Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar.  Favor de reportar
cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos y corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.

AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-260830-
San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
421 AM AST miércoles 25 de diciembre de 2024

Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para
sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas.

.DÍA UNO...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies a través de
las aguas del Atlántico.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas amenazantes a la vida en la zona de oleaje.

.DÍAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes

Un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas continuará para algunas
playas hasta el lunes.  Las embarcaciones pequeñas deberán ejercer
precaución alrededor y al norte del norte de las Islas Vírgenes
Estadounidenses el jueves y  sábado hasta el lunes.  Condiciones de
advertencia para embarcaciones pequeñas son  posibles el domingo a
través de las aguas del Atlántico.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES...

No será necesaria la activación de observadores.