NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 9, 4:00 PM PST, 5 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 9, 4:00 PM PST, 5 hours 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
400 PM PST Sat Mar 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of Pacific fronts will push across the region through
Tuesday. First front has passed through and expecting another
late tonight/Sunday morning, bringing breezy south winds through
early Sunday morning. Will see a few thunderstorms through this
evening, as well as Sunday afternoon/evening. Will see dry
weather with warmer temperatures near the end of the week as a
strong ridge aloft builds across the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...Currently, post-frontal
showers through the region moving northeast through the
northern coast and central Willamette Valley. Isolated
thunderstorms were observed in Astoria early this afternoon.
Otherwise, brief light to moderate showers and locally gusty
winds (30 to 40 mph).
A weak ridge shifting inland continues to scour out the
remaining post-frontal showers, with a quick-moving front
following behind, expected to arrive tonight. The coast will
have quickly returning rain near midnight, arriving inland
early Saturday morning, and in the Cascades late Saturday
morning. Pressure gradients will tighten overnight, resulting in
a period of gusty southerly winds across all of northwest OR and
southwest WA, strongest at the coast.
For coastal communities, wind gusts up to 40-55 mph are
expected, with chances to exceed 55 mph around 60-70%. Inland
coastal communities such as Tillamook and Astoria will see gusts
up to 35-50 mph, strongest at Tillamook. As for open beaches
and coastal headlands, expecting 50-60 mph wind gusts dropping
off around sunrise. When it comes to the Willamette Valley and
Cowlitz Valley, there is only a 30-40% chance of wind gusts
exceeding 40 mph inland overnight. Instead, wind gusts will most
likely peak between 25-35 mph for inland locations. While winds
of this magnitude do not warrant a Wind Advisory, it is still a
good idea to secure garbage cans and other loose outdoor
objects. However, impacts will be more noticeable at the coast
where downed trees and power outages possible, at least near
beaches and headlands.
For this quick-moving front, rainfall accumulation through
Sunday evening is as follows. 1.0 to 1.25 inches of rain is
expected along the coast, with chances of exceeding 1.25 inches
around 30-40%. For the interior, 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain,
with chances of exceeding 0.50 inches around 30-40%. For the
Coast Range and Cascades, 1.25 to 1.75 inches of rain, with
chances of exceeding 1.75 inches around 30-40%. Fortunately,
these rain amounts are not high enough to suggest river flooding
will occur, so minimal hydro impacts are expected.
For snow, will maintain current Winter Weather Advisories for
areas above 3500 ft in the south Washington Cascades, and above
4000/4500 ft for north Oregon Cascades as far south as Santiam
Pass. While snow will not be all that heavy, will be enough to
maintain snow-covered roads. New snow across the higher Cascades
from today through Sunday afternoon looks to be in 5 to 10 inch
range for areas 2500 to near 4000 feet, but 10 to 15 inches for
areas above 4000/4500 ft. Bulk of that will fall tonight into
Sunday.
Occasional thunderstorms will return Sunday afternoon/evening,
with continued light showers into Monday just before the next
front arrives Monday evening. Rain on Monday evening will
quickly transition to showers overnight and persist through
early Wednesday morning. As a result, more snow for the
Cascades, with another 8 to 12 inches of snow expected for
Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Wednesday morning, a strong ridge aloft builds across the
region, with the WPC cluster analysis in good agreement about
this pattern. Offshore winds will return as the ridge will
persist through the weekend. The NBM has an 80-90% chance of
temperatures reaching 65 degrees F by next Friday for much of
the I-5 corridor, and a 30-40% chance of temperatures reaching
70 degrees. On average, the first 70 deg of the year occurs in
early April across the interior. With that warmer weather, will
see the snow across the lower elevations (below 2000 ft)
gradually melting. Rivers will be on the rise, but no flooding
is expected. -JH/CR
&&
.AVIATION...Radar imagery and terminal observations as of 23z Sat
shows predominately low-end VFR cigs with post-frontal showers.
Expect predominately VFR thresholds at terminals through this
evening before the next system arrives. There could be some
isolated, heavy showers at times which could briefly reduce
cigs/vis. Winds will be mostly southerly with frequent gusts up
to 25-30 kt at any given terminal.
The next frontal system will arrive tonight at the coast and
return widespread rain and falling cigs. Guidance suggests a
60-80% chance of cigs falling to MVFR at the coast starting
09-12z Sun, and a 50-70% chance of cigs falling to MVFR in the
Willamette Valley starting 12-15z Sun. With this system, expect
gusty southerly/southwesterly winds to continue through the end
of the TAF period.
*Note: The observations out of KONP are generally limited to wind
and pressure at this time. Periodically cloud cover, vis, and
present wx are reported but are unreliable.
PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR thresholds through this
evening as we maintain post-frontal showers. Isolated heavier
showers could briefly reduce cigs/vis to MVFR. Winds will be
mostly southerly/southeasterly with gusts up to 25-30 kt. With the
next system tonight into early Sunday morning, there is a 50-70%
chance of MVFR cigs after 12-15z Sun.
-Alviz
&&
.MARINE...Observations at buoy 46050 as of 3 PM PST show southerly
winds gusting to 35 kt with steep and choppy seas around 13 ft at
8 seconds. Buoy 46243 also shows 13 ft at 9-10 seconds. Based on
these observations, (albeit they're the only few reliable buoy
obs in our outer waters), the current Gale and Hazardous Seas
Warnings are verifying.
Another frontal system is expected to impact the waters tonight
into early Sunday morning, returning strong winds and building
seas. There is high confidence (greater than 90% chance) of Gale
force gusts greater than 40 kt across the waters. There is also a
60-80% chance of frequent storm force gusts up to 50-55 kt in the
outer waters, with the strongest winds between 7 PM Saturday to 1
AM Sunday. Therefore, the Storm Warning for outer water zones
PZZ271-273 remains on track through early Sunday morning. There
also about a 50/50 chance the inner waters will see gusts to
50-55 kt, but they will be more isolated and sporadic to support a
Storm Warning. Therefore, the Gale Warning for inner water zones
PZZ251-253 remains in effect through early Sunday morning.
Seas will also build close to 20 ft tonight, peaking around 20-22
ft in the outer waters and 18-20 ft in the inner waters. After 5
AM PDT Sunday (note Daylight Saving Time begins 2 AM Sunday), the
front will move inland and wind speeds will gradually weaken.
However, a long period westerly swell will begin moving through
the waters. Therefore, seas will remain elevated in the mid to
upper teens (15-17 ft) through early next week. A Hazardous Seas
Warning has been issued following the Storm/Gale Warnings beginning
early Sunday morning and lasting through at least early Monday
morning.
-Alviz/Weagle
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Minor tidal overflow is forecast for the south
Washington coast around late morning to early afternoon Sunday.
Minor flooding, up to one foot above ground level during high
tides is expected in low lying areas near bays, sloughs, and the
lower reaches of the coastal rivers. The Toke Point gauge is
expected to reach 11.2 ft at high tide 2 PM PDT Sunday. Tidal
observations from today (Saturday) matched our forecast, so we
expect tomorrow's Coastal Flood Advisory for the south Washington
County to remain on track.
-Alviz
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM PST Sunday for
ORZ101>103-106-107.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PST Monday for ORZ126-127.
WA...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM PST Sunday for
WAZ201-203.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PST Monday for WAZ211.
Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 4 PM PST Sunday for WAZ201.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ210.
Gale Warning until 8 AM PST Sunday for PZZ210-251>253.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 5 AM PST Monday for
PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
PZZ251>253.
Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ271>273.
Storm Warning until 8 AM PST Sunday for PZZ271>273.
&&
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