Sneakerwave in Oregon, March 15 to 16, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
425 AM PDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...Updated AVIATION discussion...

.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions with unseasonably warm temperatures
will be the rule through the weekend under the control of high
pressure. A "Rex" block pattern will be in place through then and
into early next week. The eastern anchor low will linger over the
Dessert Southwest with the western anchor low out near 150W. High
pressure between the two anchor lows is currently just offshore
over the eastern Pacific with a thermal trough solidly in place at
the surface. The upper level pattern will amplify today into
Saturday and high pressure just offshore will build into the PacNW
by Saturday and then linger into early next. High pressure will
gradually shift southward Monday as the pattern begins to weaken
and high pressure finally fades out by mid next week. This will
allow systems from the west and/or northwest to push into the
region for the latter half of next week, bringing the return of
precipitation chances and temperatures more typical of late March.

As the upper level pattern amplifies today, expect a general warming
trend across the region, with afternoon temperatures reaching about
4 to 7 degrees higher than Thursday's values. Temperatures will peak
along the coast today and Saturday as the thermal trough and
orientation of the upper level flow continue to bring deep northeast
to easterly (offshore) flow to the area. Brookings is currently 60
degrees F at 130 am PDT, indicative of the Chetco Effect in place
while here at the Medford Airport, its 41 degrees F. Temperatures
along the coast will reach into the upper 60s, possibly even low
70s, today and Saturday as offshore flow peaks and the thermal
trough expands northward. This is typically a pretty concerning fire
weather pattern with northeast/east winds gusting in the 25 to 40
mph range across the ridges and recoveries as low as 25 to 40
percent. If it were fire season, there would likely be some
headlines in place, however, since its only mid-March and fire
weather concerns are at a minimum, we can enjoy the sunny and warm
weather this pattern has in store for the region for the next
several days.

Despite the dry pattern, there is the potential for some fog and low
clouds, mainly in the Umpqua Basin, during the overnight periods.
Satellite already shows some patchy low clouds in the Umpqua Basin
and we do expect this to become more widespread as the morning
progresses. These low clouds should clear by the late morning hours.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer Saturday into early next
week (aside from the coast where temperatures will be slightly
cooler after Saturday), with high temperatures expected to peak on
Monday when high pressure moves directly overhead. Expect high
temperatures in the low to mid 70s for West Side locations and low
to mid 60s for areas east of the Cascades. Currently we have 75
degrees in the forecast for Monday here in Medford, but there is
about a 30% chance that we reach 77 degrees. In Klamath Falls, we
have 66 degrees in the forecast, with a 25% chance of reaching 70
degrees both Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures begin a downward trend on Tuesday, cooling by just a
few degrees, except for areas east of the Cascades where afternoon
highs should be pretty similar to what's expected on Monday. Strong
high pressure over the region will have considerably weakened by
Tuesday, but a more noticeable change is likely on Wednesday as
guidance shows the potential for active weather to return.
Temperatures will return to values more typical of mid-late March
and precipitation chances return to the forecast for the latter half
of next week. While there is uncertainty in the details like timing,
ensembles are in pretty good agreement that once the active pattern
returns, it will be around for a while. Our cool and wet season
isn't over yet! /BR-y

&&

.AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions continue early this
morning across northern California and southern Oregon and will
generally remain in place across the coverage area. Model guidance
suggests that fog could return to the Umpqua Valley this morning but
would likely dissipate before the afternoon. Drier air in the Rogue
Valley and over Klamath Falls will prevent any lower flight levels
in these areas.

The only other notable conditions expected in this TAF period will
be periods of gusty easterly or southeasterly winds winds east of
the Cascades and in the Rogue Valley. These winds should calm later
this evening. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 AM Thursday, March 14, 2024...Steep seas will
continue early this morning. A Small Craft Advisory will end at 5 AM
PDT, with calm seas under light swell and winds expected to continue
through the weekend and into next week. Northerly winds may increase
on Monday if a weak thermal trough redevelops, but are not expected
to impact the overall sea conditions. -TAD

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A long period west swell of 3 to 5 feet at 17 to 18
seconds is expected to arrive over the waters Friday morning near or
after 8 am. The swell will persist through Saturday evening. There
will be a moderate to high risk of sneaker waves on area beaches and
shorelines during this time. The greatest risk is with the rising
tides Friday afternoon, overnight Friday, and again Saturday
afternoon. Sandler

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM PDT this morning through
     Saturday evening for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early
     this morning for PZZ356-370-376.

&&

MNF/TAD