A cold front slowly approaches South Texas from the north, leaving the region in the favorable warm sector with mid-level disturbances aiding in convection. A supercell capable of producing large hail over McMullen and Live Oak Counties occurred during the morning of the 15th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CRP wrote it up.
A cold front slowly approaches South Texas from the north, leaving the region in the favorable warm sector with mid-level disturbances aiding in convection. A supercell capable of producing large hail over McMullen and Live Oak Counties occurred during the morning of the 15th. A couple large supercells over eastern Mexico diminished but maintained severe intensity as they moved eastward into Webb County late in the evening of the 15th. Another round of severe storms moved eastward from the Brush Country to the Coastal Plains the night of the 16th into the midday hours of the 17th. A unwarned severe wind gust of 60 mph was reported on the evening of the 15th at KCOT and a golf ball size hail was reported in McMullen County on the morning of the 17th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 6:53 PM CST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 753 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 MSAS analyses reveal that the quasi-stationary frontal boundary to the north has been moving slowly southward and is currently just north of the CWA. PWAT values over the CWA in advance of this boundary are expected to remain around 2 standard deviations greater than normal. LAPS analyses reveal a decrease in the CIN values and increase in CAPE values this afternoon, with current values below 20 J/kg (except Webb County) and 3000-4000 J/kg, respectively. NAM deterministic run predicts BRN values suggesive of supercells tonight. Thus, strong to severe convection is possible tonight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect for the northern counties and Webb County until 01z Saturday. Concur with deterministic output that the front will meander approximately over the CWA tonight/Saturday. The combination of the front, disturbances ejecting from the quasi- stationary H5 low center SW of the Four Corners Region, copious moisture, and instability will contribute to additional scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tonight/Saturday. Concur with the Slight risk for severe Saturday. Deterministic global/mesoscale NWP model runs predict a high amplitude disturbance to move across the northern Plains/Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley, and the corresponding surge of MSLP will finally force the front SWD across the CWA Saturday night, resulting in additional convection, especially over the southern CWA. With respect to flash flood potential, although larger CAPE/vertical shear will decrease rainfall efficiency, rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour are possible per the WPC, which is near the FFG. Further, the quasi-stationary boundary will likely contribute to persistent redevelopment of convection. Thus, concur with WPC Marginal and Slight risk of Excessive rainfall for much of the CWA tonight/Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Key Messages: - Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Sunday - Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Sunday Synopsis: An upper-level low will meander around the Desert Southwest early next week before ejecting eastward across the Central/Southern Plains mid-week. Several mid-level disturbances wrapping around the low are expected to move across our CWA throughout much of the workweek, resulting in a Marginal Risk for Severe thunderstorms and Excessive rainfall Sunday, isolated to scattered rain and storm chances taper off from west to east Sunday, then isolated chances through the middle of the week, and then isolated to scattered Wed/Thu as a boundary moves through the region from west to east. Hazards: Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall remain possible (very low around 5% chance within 25 mi of a point) into Sunday across the northeastern portions of South Texas but is expected to taper off by afternoon. Marine hazards are expected as a boundary in response to a frontal boundary moves offshore. See Marine discussion below. Temperatures: A slight downtrend next week followed by an uptick in high and low temperatures towards the end of next work-week. Look for highs Mon-Tues in the upper 60s to low 70s to jump into the mid to upper 80s during the second half of the week. Overnight lows mainly in the 60s but dip into the 50s Mon-Tues nights. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 IFR cigs have made their way into the Coastal Bend and is currently impacting CRP and will continue to advect eastward into the Coastal Plains. MVFR cigs for VCT/ALI and VFR for COT/LRD. IFR/LIFR cigs will likely cover most of South Texas late tonight through tomorrow morning as showers and storms from Mexico advect eastward. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 3 AM for Jim Wells County westward. Very large hail and damaging winds are the greatest threats for any direct terminal impacts. Confidence is very low on coverage tonight but have included TEMPOs for when timing is greatest for each site. Additional showers and storms will be possible tomorrow but a lull in the afternoon is expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas of fog will develop this evening and persist through Saturday morning as moist weak to moderate onshore flow moves across the cooler sea surface. The proximity of a frontal boundary and copious moisture will contribute to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight through Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur. Weak onshore flow veers to the northeast Sunday and increases to moderate early Monday in response to a frontal boundary moving offshore. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop early Monday with gusts to Gale in the morning and afternoon. Northeast flow will then become moderate late Monday, will veer onshore and become weak Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday reduce in coverage to isolated Monday through mid-week and then increase to scattered Wednesday or Thursday as another frontal boundary moves offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 82 67 79 / 40 30 50 50 Victoria 67 80 65 75 / 30 50 60 70 Laredo 69 82 67 79 / 70 60 70 40 Alice 68 84 66 79 / 40 40 60 50 Rockport 67 78 66 76 / 30 30 50 60 Cotulla 67 82 66 76 / 50 60 70 50 Kingsville 69 82 66 78 / 40 30 50 50 Navy Corpus 68 77 67 76 / 30 20 50 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...WC LONG TERM....BF AVIATION...EMF/94
The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:11 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
ASOS station KCOT in Cotulla, TX measured a wind gust of 60 mph likely due to efficient evaporative cooling in wake of an anvil from a strong to severe thunderstorm to its south.
Reports of trees and utility poles down in Sinton between Hugh and Short Streets near business 77. Time estimated from radar.
Emergency manager reported golf ball size hail north of Tilden on TX-16.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1168990, 1168989, 1168988.