Deep low pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean, and strong high pressure well inland resulted in a tight gradient with south to southwest winds reaching warning criteria.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Deep low pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean, and strong high pressure well inland resulted in a tight gradient with south to southwest winds reaching warning criteria.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 30, 2:48 PM PST, 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
248 PM PST Tue Jan 30 2024
.SHORT TERM...Through Friday morning...Generally stable
conditions continue across northern California and southern Oregon
this afternoon. Temperatures at the Medford airport have reached
73 degrees, breaking a record high for the day. Other west side
valleys have warmed after morning fog cleared. This stability will
not last much longer, as southerly winds are picking up ahead of
an approaching cold front. Weed is already seeing 25 mph winds
with gusts of over 40 mph.
Strong winds are going to affect wide areas from tonight and through
early Thursday morning as the approaching cold front continues to
move eastward. While mostly higher elevations will be affected,
elevated southerly winds will flow through the Shasta Valley. Wind
speeds of 35 mph with gusts of over 50 mph will be possible through
Wednesday evening. The southern Rogue Valley will also get some
elevated southeasterly winds, with Ashland forecast to get sustained
winds of 30 mph and gusts near 45 mph through Wednesday evening.
High winds are also expected to move over areas east of the Cascades.
A High Wind Warning is currently in place for the Shasta Valley and
will continue through Wednesday at 10 PM. Additional High Wind
Warnings will cover the Oregon coast from Cape Ferrelo (North of
Brookings) to Floras Lake (North of Cape Blanco) from Tuesday at 10
PM through Wednesday at 1 PM and for the Rogue Valley around Ashland
from Tuesday at 10 PM through Wednesday at 7 PM. A Wind Advisory is
now in place for broader areas west of the Cascades and runs through
Wednesday at 7 PM. An additional Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning
will cover areas of concern east of the Cascades from Tuesday at 10
PM through Wednesday at 10 PM.
The main band of precipitation will move over the area through the
day Wednesday. Snow levels ahead of the front will still be 7000 to
9000 feet, so rainfall is expected over all but the highest
elevations. The highest amounts of rain will be over the southern
coastal ranges and around Mount Shasta. Areas from Gold Beach to
Brookings and surrounding mountains are forecast to get 3 to 4
inches of rain through Wednesday night. One possibility with this
front will be rainfall around Mount Shasta bringing snow levels down
low enough to affect local roadways. This is mostly a concern for
Highway 89 near Snowman Summit, where about a foot of snow could
fall under the right conditions.
A Winter Storm Warning is in place for areas of Siskiyou County
above 4000 feet to address expected heavy snowfall and strong winds
from Wednesday at 4 AM through Thursday at 7 AM. However, snow
levels locally dropping to 3500 feet is not impossible.
Please see the Weather and Hazards Data Viewer under Current
Conditions -> Observations on the NWS Medford home page for a more
detailed hazard map.
The upper trough behind the cold front will remain over the area and
define conditions through the rest of the short-term forecast.
Temperatures will cool across the area, with Wednesday night's lows
reaching near freezing east of the Cascades. Moderate (60-80%)
precipitation chances continue west of the Cascades from Thursday
evening into Friday morning, with higher chances (80-90%)
persisting over western Curry and Siskiyou counties. Snow levels
behind the front will drop to 3500 to 4500 feet, allowing light
snowfall from showers that get over the Cascades. -TAD
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.
On Friday morning, the closed upper low will be offshore from
Washington and Oregon. The low will gradually retrograde, track
southwestward, during Friday and Saturday. A series of shortwaves
rotating around the low will track northward across our area with
scattered to numerous showers and snow showers. Precipitation
intensity and amounts will generally be light, but snow levels
Friday through Saturday are expected to be lower than they have been
in the past few weeks, around 2500 to 3000 feet. Also, snow levels
are forecast to drop as low as 2000 feet early Saturday morning.
There is a slight (less than 20%) chance of the lowest snow levels
reaching 1000 feet Saturday morning, but, again, amounts would be
very light, likely less than an inch.
Beyond Saturday, model differences/forecast uncertainty increases. A
strong piece of energy in the base of the trough is expected to
strengthen offshore from California early next week. The highest
probability is for this to send significant precipitation into
central and southern California Sunday into Monday, with a
relatively dry period of weather for our area. The southern edge of
our area, southern Siskiyou County, has the highest probability of
getting clipped by this system with precipitation possibly enhanced
by upslope southerly flow. More likely, our temperatures will be
slightly below normal with a broad slight chance to chance of very
light to light showers and snow showers.
Behind the trough, the duration and strength of ridging around late
Monday into Tuesday is uncertain. Further light isolated to
scattered shower activity is possible, with night and morning valley
low clouds and fog likely. -DW
&&
.AVIATION...30/18Z TAFs...The main impact to aviation through
Wednesday morning will be strong, gusty southerly winds. Gusts may
reach 35 to 60 mph. This includes low level wind shear expected
across the area beginning late this afternoon at the coast and early
this evening inland.
With the winds providing a mixed air mass, VFR will be the
predominant condition across the area into Wednesday morning. Rain
will be mainly at and near the coast. But, showers and local
mountain obscuration are possible elsewhere from the Coast Range to
the Cascades. -DW
&&
.MARINE...Updated 230 PM Tuesday January 30, 2024...
An approaching cold front will affect all waters through the middle
of the week, with storm and gale winds quickly building dangerous
and chaotic seas.
Winds will begin to build this evening with a low near 135W
strengthening to 965 mb. Storm force winds are anticipated in mainly
the outer waters with gusts up to 60 knots around 30 nm from shore.
The winds will be weaker closer to shore given the south east
component of the wind direction, so we have high confidence of only
gales in the inner waters and gusts around 40 to 45 knots. Very
high southerly wind wave will develop pushing seas up to 23 feet
well away from shore and close to 10 to 15 feet closer to shore.
Overall, conditions will remain hazardous to most crafts with the
worse conditions away from shore through Wednesday.
Very steep and hazardous seas are expected to continue behind the
front with a mix of fresh southerly swell and long period westerly
swell affecting all waters on Thursday. Probabilistic guidance
suggests a 90 percent chance of waves over 18 feet for Thursday and
a 70 percent chance for waves over 15 feet for Friday at 14 to 15
seconds. While more exact forecasts for this period will benefit
from additional time and guidance, continuing steep to very steep
seas are likely to continue into Saturday. Seas may start to calm
into the latter half of the weekend. -Smith/Sven
&&
.HIGH SURF...Updated 215 PM Tuesday January 30, 2024... After the
high and steep wind waves, a westerly swell will move through the
waters. Right now swell heights are anticipated around 20 feet out
the southwest around 15 seconds. This should round out to 22 to 25
foot surf, which is a marginal high surf advisory for us. If swell
heights come in a bit higher, then we feel a surf advisory should be
issued for the Oregon Coast. Given the strength of winds anticipated
with this low, there should be plenty of building swell in the
waters later this evening through Wednesday.
-Smith
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
ORZ029>031.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
ORZ029>031.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Wednesday
for ORZ021-022.
High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 10 PM PST Thursday
for ORZ021-022.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ023>026.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM PST Wednesday
for ORZ026.
CA...Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM PST Thursday
for CAZ080-082-083.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
CAZ084-085.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ084-
085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM PST
Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
&&
TAD/DW/CZSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Buckhorn Springs reported peak winds of 32 mph with gusts to 65 mph, and Acorn Woman Peak reported peak winds of 62 mph with gusts to 87 mph.
High winds reached peaks at Long Prairie of 37 mph with gusts to 68 mph, Port Orford of 42 mph with gusts to 61 mph, and Bullards Beach reported a gust of 57 mph.
Quail Prairie reported peak winds of 37 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
Flynn Prairie reported peak winds of 31 mph with gusts to 67 mph.
Ashland reported peak winds of 35 mph with gusts to 65 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1155646, 1155642, 1155644, 1155643, 1155645.