Flood in Oregon, January 28 to 29, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
247 PM PST Sun Jan 28 2024

.SHORT TERM...Ridging has set up over Idaho and Montana, and
you'll feel it when you step outside today! It has been a
wonderful afternoon with temperatures already reaching the 60s
before 1 PM for west side valleys and the coast. The east side is
just behind this with average current temperatures in the mid-50s.
The record high for Medford is 65 degrees from 1940, and the
temperature at 2 PM was already 60 degrees, so the record is
within reach. Klamath Falls has already hit their mark with their
temperature of 57 before 1 PM as this broke the record high of 55
degrees that was set back in 2015! The road to records is not done
yet with Monday and Tuesday still good contenders for both spots.
Monday will be the warmest day of the 3-day streak with highs in
the upper 50s and low 60s east of the Cascades and upper 60s in
valleys west.

The main changes today for the next system have been an addition of
a high wind watch and a slight delay in PoP. The High Wind Watch
will be from Tuesday night through parts of Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast 700 mb winds are strengthening to 60 to 70 knots during
this time frame in the areas under the watch, which supports
stronger winds east of the Cascades. The coast will have this
watch along Highway 101 in Curry County. Jackson County will also
have this watch from Phoenix through Ashland for winds of 35-45
mph and gusts between 45-55 mph. The Shasta Valley is also an area
of concern from Grenada to Mount Shasta along I-5. The last area
under the watch is the Klamath Valley. Please view NPWMFR for the
latest information. More areas will likely be under a wind
advisory Wednesday, but that will be determined after finalizing
the areas under the watch that would turn into a warning.

The delay in PoP is for 00Z-12Z Tuesday as more short term models
are in agreement that the incoming front will stall for longer,
leaving the coast with a 15%-25% max precipitation chance through
the time frame. The rain will continue focusing on the coast until
Tuesday afternoon/evening where it begins to move inland and to the
Cascades. This will be discussed in the long term discussion
below.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.
The long term starts with a High Wind Watch still in effect. A
strong atmospheric river over the area will strengthen Wednesday
with southerly wind gusts of 35 to 65 mph through the afternoon. As
is typical with atmospheric rivers, the strongest winds will be at
the coast, over the higher terrain, in the southern Shasta Valley
(near Weed), and in northwest Lake County (near Summer Lake).

Meantime, rain on Wednesday will be focused from the coast to the
Cascades, with heavy rain likely for Curry, western Josephine, and
western and southern Siskiyou counties. Precipitation intensity will
diminish as precipitation spreads across all of the area Wednesday
night through Thursday. Snow levels will remain high through
Thursday, at around 5000 to 6000 feet.

By Thursday evening, the cold frontal portion of the system will
shift east of the area. Snow levels will lower Thursday night
through Friday night, with a showery air mass. There is a wide
variation in the speed and track of the associated upper low, with
differences in the resultant snow level. Snow levels are forecast to
fall to 3000 to 3500 feet, but there is a cluster of ensemble member
solutions that would support snow levels as low as 2000 feet on
Friday and Friday night.

A complex scenario develops by Saturday with the interaction of the
upper low near/over the Pacific Northwest, ridging over California,
and the approach of another Pacific low. The blended model
solution was utilized with a chance of mainly west side
precipitation, and snow levels remaining relatively low at around
2000 to 3500 feet.
-DW

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z TAFs...Along the coast, conditions are mainly
VFR this morning, with a few patches of IFR. The IFR is expected to
dissipate during the day, but patchy IFR will return late tonight
into Monday morning.

Inland, from the Cascades west, areas of valley IFR/LIFR fog will
linger this morning. The IFR/LIFR will gradually dissipate this
afternoon into the evening, then return late this evening into
Monday morning (likely beginning around 08Z).

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions with local MVFR valley fog will
prevail this morning. Conditions will improve to VFR in the late
morning and early afternoon across the east. Patchy valley IFR/MVFR
will likely return early Monday morning, after 12Z. -DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Sunday January 28, 2024...Steep, west to
southwest seas will persist across the waters through Monday night;
therefore, a small craft advisory remains in effect through this
time period.

Steep seas will steadily rise through the day Tuesday, and will
transition to very steep and very high seas by Tuesday night.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be the peak of these seas,
and we're currently forecasting waves to reach 18-22 feet with the
frontal passage. The highest of which will likely be across our
northern waters of zone 370. At this time, the probability for
sustained winds to be at least 34 knots is nearly 100 percent for
much of the outer waters. In fact, we are forecasting sustained wind
speeds of 45-50 knots across our outer waters (zones 370 & 376).
Currently, gusts could be as high as 60 to 65 knots. With all these
considerations, we have issued a Storm Watch for much of zones 370
and 376 with a Gale Watch for much of the inner waters included all
of zones 350 and 356.

After the front passes, a building west swell with lingering fresh
south seas will result in continued high to very high seas Wednesday
night. West swell is forecast to peak on Thursday with seas in the
15 to 19 ft range. High and steep seas are forecast to linger
through at least Friday night.

-Guerrero

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     afternoon for ORZ021-022-024-026-028>031.

CA...High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     afternoon for CAZ080>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for
     PZZ370-376.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
1017 AM PST Sun Jan 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     Rain             2 SSE Pistol River      42.26N 124.39W
01/28/2024  M1.69 inch       Curry              OR   Trained Spotter

            From 8 AM yesterday to 8 AM today (Sunday),
            received 1.69 inches.

&&

ANH