Flood and High Wind in Alaska, January 28 to 30, 2024

Name: Flood and High Wind in Alaska, January 28 to 30, 2024
Start: 2024-01-28T16:13
End: 2024-01-30T09:00
Location: Alaska

January 28 to 30, 2024 · NWS AJK · 8 events in 8 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 8

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.

A strong storm force low pressure system over the North Pacific lifted north and moved into the Gulf of Alaska by the morning of January 29th. There was an associated atmospheric river along the warm side of the cold front that had a significant amount of sub-tropical moisture within it. Along with the the high anomalous moisture values, there was a very warm airmass with the atmospheric river which increased freezing levels across Southeast Alaska to more than 5000 feet. There was a deep snowpack at upper elevations and near sea level, which melted with the heavy rain to increase the amount of runoff into rivers and streams. Another low pressure system developed along the frontal boundary which stalled the front over the region to produce continued prolog heavy rain but also high winds. The combination of high winds and heavy precipitation on snow at high elevations triggered a number of avalanches near Haines.

The 2 day precipitation total across the northern half of the Southeast Alaska ranged from 2 to over 4 inches along with significant amount of snowmelt and runoff from the high freezing levels and the heavy rain melting the snowpack. The heavy rain triggered a small landslide in Haines near Lutak, another near mile 6 of Zimovia Highway in Wrangell. There was some minor overland flooding from poor drainage near the Haines airport by the afternoon of January 29th. Near the Juneau area there was a lot of minor flooding of small streams going over their banks from the rain and snow runoff through January 30th but there was moderate flooding near Jordan Creek that impacted a few homes, business and roadways.

Tree fall was was widespread across the region from this event due to the saturated ground and high wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 28, 3:46 PM AKST, 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 28, 3:46 PM AKST, 27 minutes before

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 PM AKST Sun Jan 28 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/...A series of impulses will
sweep north over Southeast Alaska during this short term forecast
period. This will bring several round of moderate to heavy
precipitation, and with a snow level at 2,800 ft or higher, snow
melt will be significant. At this point, no potential flooding has
been identified, but the situation is being watched closely.
Fortunately, over two days of light to moderate rainfall and even
overnight temperatures remaining above freezing has diminished
snow depth and rooftop snow loading significantly. Measurements
made this morning revealed a value of slightly more than 28 lbs
per square foot with a snow depth of 20 inches. This value should
be well within the load limits of any commercially made structure.

Apart from the rain, there is a significant amount of wind
associated with the impulses referred to above. The southern zones
remain in a high wind warning through tonight. High wind warnings
spread north beginning tomorrow morning, first with Sitka, then
Juneau, and finally Skagway. The northeast Gulf Coast will also
be experiencing wind, but gusts there should remain below the 60
mph high wind threshold.

.LONG TERM...Conditions across SE AK will continue to remain unsettled
for the start of the long term period. The remnants of the low
that will affect the area from the short term period continue to
slowly dissipate before a new low farther south in the Northern
Pacific starts to take control of the weather over SE; the
remnants of the original low continues to drive precipitation.
Meanwhile, high pressure over Interior Alaska will shift to the
east allowing for more cold air to take hold over the Yukon and
BC. This shifting high and strengthening low will allow for
outflow winds to return to the area for the middle of the week.
Both the Euro and Canadian ensembles have moved towards this idea
while the GFS ensembles want to have the low hang around longer
and bring increased winds across the southern gulf waters as well
as the southern panhandle. Some drying is also expected during
this time but mostly for the NE gulf coast and portions of the
northern panhandle. Farther south, precipitation looks to continue
but will remain light. With the colder air trying to move back
into the area for the middle to latter half of the week, some
areas are expected to switch back to snow if they do see any
moisture move overhead. By the time we get to the weekend, the
high pressure that will move into the Yukon is expected to settle
in for the weekend according to ensemble guidance. There is still
some disagreement on the strength of the high pressure but there
is good agreement that there will be a high somewhere over the
Yukon region.

&&

.AVIATION...Marginal VFR conditions for both CIGs and VSBY
prevail for the next 24 hours with pockets of IFR conditions due
to both CIGS and VSBY. The primary aviation impact during this
period will continue to be mechanical turbulence which extends
above ridge tops as well as LLWS near the surface.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ317.
     High Wind Warning from noon to 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind until 3 AM AKST Monday for AKZ323.
     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 3 PM AKST Monday for AKZ323.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM AKST Monday for AKZ325.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ327.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ328-330-332.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ329.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ641>643-661>663.
     Gale Warning for PKZ031>033-035-036-053-644-651-652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-034.

&&

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...Fritsch

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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

7 high wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Ketchikan Gateway Borough

When: January 28, 4:13 PM AKST to January 29, 7:13 AM AKST
Where: Ketchikan Gateway Borough forecast zone
Measured: 72 kt (83 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 55.501, -131.417 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Widespread high winds were measured across Marine Exchange mesonet stations throughout the Ketchikan area and at the Ketchikan ASOS. The peak gust measured at Ward Cove reached 83 mph at 343am on the 29th. A COOP at the northern end of Ketchikan reported that at least 80mph winds blew off the top third of a large cedar tree.

High Wind, Prince of Wales Island

When: January 28, 7:56 PM AKST to January 29, 4:56 AM AKST
Where: Prince of Wales Island forecast zone
Measured: 75 kt (86 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 55.597, -132.803 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Hydaburg AWOS at the seaplane dock measured periodic high wind gusts through the night of the 28th and into the early morning hours of the 29th. The peak wind gust measured was 86 mph at 907pm on the 28th.

High Wind, Annette Island

When: January 28, 11:20 PM AKST to January 29, 4:25 AM AKST
Where: Annette Island forecast zone
Measured: 54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
Reported by: NWS Employee
Coordinates: 55.597, -132.803 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

An NWS Employee reported a power outage in Metlakatla at 1120pm on the 28th of January as wind speeds increased with the arrival of a strong system. The winds reached a maximum speed of 62 mph at 1:05 and 4:25 AM at the Metlakatla AWOS on the morning of January 29th and a similar gust was measured at the Weather Service Station.

High Wind, Petersburg Borough

When: January 29, 12:55 AM AKST to 7:00 AM AKST
Where: Petersburg Borough forecast zone
Measured: 60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Broadcast Media
Coordinates: 56.765, -133.193 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Media in Petersburg reported that a 3 foot diameter spruce tree came down Sunday night, blocking both lanes of the Mitkof Highway near Blaquerie Point. During this period, a peak gust of 66mph was measured at the Zarembo Island RAWS, at 155am.

High Wind, City and Borough of Juneau

When: January 29, 7:36 AM AKST to 10:02 AM AKST
Where: City and Borough of Juneau forecast zone
Measured: 54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Utility Company
Coordinates: 58.417, -134.333 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

AEL&P reported a power outage in Downtown Juneau due to a tree which fell on a transmission line at 736am on the 29th. At 850am NWS forecasters observed a dead tree come down outside the NWS Office. Downtown Juneau Marine Exchange stations measured a peak gust of 62 mph at 942am. A peak gust of 93 mph was measured at the Eaglecrest Ski area at 940am.

High Wind, City and Borough of Sitka

When: January 29, 8:24 AM AKST to 11:53 AM AKST
Where: City and Borough of Sitka forecast zone
Measured: 68 kt (78 mph) measured gust
Reported by: ASOS
Coordinates: 57.083, -135.269 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A burst of high winds were felt across Sitka during the morning hours of the 29th. A peak gust of 71 mph was recorded by the Sitka ASOS at 910am and a peak gust of 78 mph was measured at the Marine Exchange station at the Sitka Harbor at 1013am. Additionally numerous reports were received of down trees all over town.

Flood, Juneau Borough

When: January 29, 10:00 AM AKST to January 30, 9:00 AM AKST
Where: Juneau Borough County, 9.71 mi NW of Douglas to 9.89 mi NW of Douglas
Cause: Heavy Rain / Snow Melt
Reported by: River/Stream Gage
Coordinates: 58.362, -134.582

Rain and rising freezing levels moved over the Juneau area through the evening hours of January 28th. The rain continued to increase in intensity and with the rising freezing level, a significant amount of runoff was going into local rivers and streams. Jordan Creek started to rise significantly in the early morning of January 29th and went over minor flood stage of 9.7 feet in the late morning. As the second low pressure system moved over the area rain rates increased again over the area, to be greater than 0.25 inches per hour at times. The amount of runoff from the overland flow into Jordan Creek rose water levels to go over the moderate flood stage of 10.5 feet at 415pm and the creek crested at 10.78 feet in the early evening of January 29th. Rain rates decreased as the cold front moved east of the area in the late evening hours and stream levels on Jordan Creek started to recede through the overnight hours. The creek was below minor flood stage by mid morning of January 30th. There was some damage to a few homes and business along the creek and roadways near Jordan Creek were impassable at times.

High Wind, Cape Fairweather to Lisianski Strait

When: January 29, 11:17 AM AKST to 1:33 PM AKST
Where: Cape Fairweather to Lisianski Strait forecast zone
Measured: 58 kt (67 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 57.948, -134.941 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A spotter in Pelican reported on social media that there was flying debris and trees down, along with roofing coming loose in places and windows blown out. Later a COOP observer in Pelican reported 67 mph wind gusts were measured at his personal weather station and reported that a roof was coming off of a building and windows had been blown out.

What these are

High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2024 Every state in 2024 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, January 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1159827, 1159810, 1159811, 1160767, 1159835, 1159846, 1160769, 1159832.