A series of slow moving frontal systems brought several days of heavy rain, which caused flooding on the North Fork of the Coquille River at Myrtle Point.
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The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A series of slow moving frontal systems brought several days of heavy rain, which caused flooding on the North Fork of the Coquille River at Myrtle Point.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 14, 9:10 AM PST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
910 AM PST Sun Jan 14 2024
.DISCUSSION...An update is not necessary. Flooding in the Coquille
Basin in Coos County remains as an impact from yesterday's storm
system. The Coquille River is expected to peak later today with
minor to moderate flooding. As is typical, the waters will be
slowest to recede at the Coquille River at Coquille gauge, likely
remaining above flood stage into Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, we will have a break between systems into Tuesday
morning. The frontal system later Tuesday into early Wednesday
looks to have minor impacts with snow levels around 5000 to 6000
feet. A warmer, but active/wet southerly flow pattern is likely
to develop late in the week and continue in the day 8-10 time
frame.
&&
.AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs...The last batch of light to moderate
precipitation will exit the area late this morning. IFR/MVFR
ceilings will persist for most of the morning for the westside
terminals, except for Roseburg where VFR ceilings are expected to
continue through the afternoon. Some clearing is possible later this
afternoon as a drier air mass moves into the area. However the
atmosphere will become stable and this along with recent
precipitation will result in low clouds and areas of fog to form for
the inland terminals. For now, there should be enough drying at the
coast to prevent fog from forming at North Bend, but later shifts
will need to take another look at this. -Petrucelli
&&
.MARINE...Updated 845 AM Sunday January 14, 2024...Mixed steep
and very steep seas continue in all waters off the Oregon coast,
with steep seas expected ot continue through this evening. Seas will
drop below 10 feet this evening with calmer conditions expected
tonight through Monday. The next front will approach on Tuesday
resulting in another round of increasing south winds and steep seas
that will likely persist through next Friday. -Petrucelli/TAD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 AM PST Sun Jan 14 2024/
DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Overview:
Weather-wise, we saw an active and impactful start to the weekend
across southern Oregon and northern California. We had interstate
closures, flooding, heavy snowfall, and very hazardous driving
conditions across much of the forecast area. Fortunately, things
are much quieter today, and we are expected to remain relatively
quiet through early next week. Things start to pick back up on
Tuesday/Wednesday with more snowfall across higher elevations. At
this time, impacts are expected to be on the lighter side, but
travel through mountains/passes and higher elevations could become
an issue for middle parts of next week, especially Wednesday when
the wind speeds could play a role on visibilities from blowing
snow.
Further Details:
Upper air analysis shows a shortwave currently passing through the
PacNW as of writing this (~2am), and mid-level water vapor shows an
area of subsidence moving in behind this shortwave. This area of dry
subsidence will essentially end our precipitation chances later
today, and really we are not expecting much in regards for impacts
from ongoing weather through early next week. The one issue we could
see is melting and/or standing water creating icy roads, so caution
should be exhibited in areas where we could see freezing
temperatures. This would be primarily for areas that received
snowfall across higher elevations and the eastside. The eastside in
particular is expected to get above freezing later today for a high,
but shortly after sunset those temperatures are expected to drop
below freezing again. Most areas in Oregon on the eastside may see
teens for low temperatures Monday morning, so caution should be
especially used in these areas in case icy roads form.
In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave, we will see a ridge
of high pressure build in which should keep us relatively quiet
from weather impacts. The ridge axis passes through the PacNW
Tuesday, and our next shortwave looks to pass over parts of
Northern Oregon and Washington as the ridge pushes east. At the
surface, a decent surface low develops, and a combination of
moisture advecting in and upper level dynamics should allow for a
large QPF sheild to spread over the region. We could see heavy
rainfall along/near the coast, and snowfall accumulation across
the higher elevations primarily above 5000 feet. Deterministic
models diverge from one another quite a bit starting Wednesday
across the PacNW, so confidence does dwindle to some degree. That
said, the bigger picture still shows the potential for
little/minimal impacts, but once the finer details become clearer
we could see that change. Stay tuned for those details, but as
mentioned it does look like impacts should be limited at this time
for middle of next week.
-Guerrero
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST this
morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-
356-370-376.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
800 AM PST Sun Jan 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0720 AM Rain Shady Cove 42.61N 122.82W
01/14/2024 E1.66 inch Jackson OR Trained Spotter
Spotter reports 1.66 inches of rain in past
24 hours.
&&
TADPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
1037 AM PST Sun Jan 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM Rain 4 NNE Takilma 42.11N 123.58W
01/14/2024 E1.40 inch Josephine OR Trained Spotter
Trained spotter reported 1.4 inches of rain
from 1/13 8am through 1/14 8am.
&&
TADPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
1038 AM PST Sun Jan 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM Rain 2 SSE Pistol River 42.26N 124.39W
01/14/2024 E1.49 inch Curry OR Trained Spotter
Trained spotter reports 1.49 inches of rain
from 1/13 8am through 1/14 8am.
&&
TADPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
1040 AM PST Sun Jan 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 AM Rain 2 ENE Murphy 42.36N 123.29W
01/14/2024 E1.33 inch Josephine OR Trained Spotter
Trained spotter reports 1.1 inches of rain
in 24 hours, 1.63 inches of rain in 48
hours.
&&
TADThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The North Fork of the Coquille River at Myrtle Point rose above minor flood stage of 35.0 ft at 14/1040 PST, and crested at minor flood stage at 35.07 ft at 14/1045 PST. The river dropped below minor flood stage at 14/1415 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1154224.