Drought in Oklahoma, September 10 to 30, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
250 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

    - Elevated Fire Weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

	- Above average temperatures return this weekend.

	- Slight chance of rain Wednesday in the far southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Our only potential hazard in the short term remains fire weather for
Tuesday afternoon.  Southeast winds will veer out of the south later
this morning into the afternoon while our dry air remains in place
across our area, perhaps driest across our western CWA. Warm
afternoon temperatures will result in very low RH values across our
western and northern CWA along with wind gusts up to 20 mph will
adequate to meet fire weather conditions.  Drought conditions across
our west and north continue to increase ground fuel loading for
wildfire spread.  As a result, there will be an Elevated risk for
wildfires this afternoon across western and much of northern
Oklahoma until after sundown when RH's start recover and wind gusts
diminish.  Otherwise a gradual warming trend with seasonably normal
temperatures this afternoon with another cooler night (50s) across
most of our area.  However, increasing surface moisture transport
from Tropical system Francine off the Texas Gulf Coast will start
increasing into southeast Oklahoma raising those dew points keeping
it slightly warmer there (lower to mid 60s) overnight.  However, did
go just slightly cooler than NBM default across central through
southeast Oklahoma using the NBM 10th percentile for tonight's
MinT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Elevated fire conditions return on Wednesday afternoon but will be
confined to a smaller area of northwest Oklahoma. Rain probabilities
from tropical system Francine have decreased (15%) across our
southeastern CWA on Wednesday afternoon as this system tracking
to our east.

The main upper jet flowing across the northern U.S. will start to
dig into the western U.S. as a large amplitude trough this week
while the upper low from whats expected to be going post-tropical
Francine tracking up the southern Mississippi Valley. Surface
moisture from this tropical system will gradually increase across
our area and strongest across our eastern half as our morning
temperatures only fall into the 60s. By Friday, the Southern
Plains will be pinched between the two aforementioned systems with
an upper ridge building over us well into Saturday resulting in
above normal temperatures. Southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas will heat well into the 90s by Friday and near triple digit
by Saturday with a potential warm front lifting into our
southwest under the building ridge. Although our southwest will be
the hottest, still seeing 90s for highs this weekend across the
remainder of our area. Did go a few degrees cooler than NBM for
Saturdays MaxT by nudging 50% of the CONSRaw. Still, Saturday
should be the peak of our warming trend as the upper ridge starts
breaking down on Sunday while the warm front retreats and washes
out. As the upper trough across the western U.S. lifts to the
north back into the main jet flow, a secondary trough over the
eastern Pacific digs deeply back into the western U.S. A series of
shortwave disturbances will be expelled downstream from this
trough and over the Central through Southern Plains bringing
rain/storm chances back into our area late Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Southerly to southeasterly light winds continue through the TAF
period under clear skies. Northwest Oklahoma may experience a bit
of breeziness during the afternoon.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         89  56  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  89  61  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           92  56  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     88  57  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         89  64  88  65 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
406 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-110915-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
406 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Fire Weather... Very low relative humidities from diurnal
heating and gusty south winds over very dry vegetation will
elevate the fire danger risk this afternoon across western and
parts of northern Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Fire Weather... The fire danger risk will be elevated on
Wednesday afternoon across a smaller part of northwest Oklahoma.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday night into Monday across
our area.

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